Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
APQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, APQ's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.622 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 21.9T | 2024 (4.3) |
Latest observed2.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.75 | 3.87 | 1.64 | 2.48 – 3.03 |
| 2029 | 3.06 | 4.99 | 1.14 | 2.52 – 3.6 |
| 2031 | 3.37 | 5.86 | 0.89 | 2.6 – 4.15 |
| 2036 | 4.15 | 7.66 | 0.63 | 2.77 – 5.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.33· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.39typical miss · 20 realized · 68% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.3T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 44.7T | 47.9T | 41.9T | 43.3T – 46.1T |
| 2029 | 48.1T | 53.7T | 43.3T | 44.6T – 51.7T |
| 2031 | 51.5T | 58.8T | 45.3T | 45.7T – 57.4T |
| 2036 | 60.1T | 70.3T | 51.2T | 47.6T – 72.6T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead44.8T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.6Ttypical miss · 20 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.24 | 6.86 | 1.96 | 3.73 – 4.74 |
| 2029 | 3.83 | 8.38 | -0.11 | 2.89 – 4.78 |
| 2031 | 3.43 | 9.31 | -1.66 | 2.18 – 4.68 |
| 2036 | 2.43 | 10.74 | -4.77 | 0.65 – 4.2 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.14· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.38typical miss · 20 realized · 73% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.6k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.9k | 10.7k | 9.3k | 9.6k – 10.2k |
| 2029 | 10.6k | 11.9k | 9.5k | 9.8k – 11.4k |
| 2031 | 11.3k | 13k | 9.8k | 10k – 12.6k |
| 2036 | 13.1k | 15.4k | 11k | 10.3k – 15.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.9k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±619.96typical miss · 20 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed96.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 98.4 | 105.21 | 90.54 | 95.35 – 101.45 |
| 2029 | 102.6 | 114.39 | 88.99 | 95.01 – 110.19 |
| 2031 | 106.8 | 122.02 | 89.23 | 94.67 – 118.92 |
| 2036 | 117.29 | 138.82 | 92.45 | 92.96 – 141.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead97.43· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8.64typical miss · 20 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.26 | 7.99 | 0.27 | 3.37 – 5.16 |
| 2029 | 5.66 | 12.12 | -1.25 | 3.96 – 7.36 |
| 2031 | 7.06 | 15.4 | -1.87 | 4.65 – 9.47 |
| 2036 | 10.56 | 22.35 | -2.07 | 6.26 – 14.86 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.66· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.79typical miss · 20 realized · 71% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.5bn | 4.7bn | 4.3bn | 4.3bn – 4.6bn |
| 2029 | 4.5bn | 4.7bn | 4.3bn | 4.1bn – 4.8bn |
| 2031 | 4.4bn | 4.7bn | 4.2bn | 3.9bn – 4.9bn |
| 2036 | 4.4bn | 4.6bn | 4.2bn | 3.5bn – 5.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±68.3mtypical miss · 20 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-01 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/APQ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 25.2T | 2025 (2.7) |
| 2029 | 23.1T | 2026 (3.7) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 30773329831380.06 + -2060440858673.8557·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.574 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.6 | 2026 (43.3T) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 8.6933 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/APQ?indicator= · API docs
