Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
APQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, APQ's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.635 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.2T | 2023 (4.8) |
Latest observed3.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.42 | 4.39 | 2.46 | 3.17 – 3.68 |
| 2028 | 3.87 | 5.54 | 2.2 | 3.34 – 4.4 |
| 2030 | 4.32 | 6.48 | 2.16 | 3.53 – 5.1 |
| 2035 | 5.44 | 8.49 | 2.39 | 3.95 – 6.93 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.52· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.28typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed44.5T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42T | 45.4T | 39.2T | 40.7T – 43.3T |
| 2028 | 44.7T | 50.5T | 39.7T | 41.4T – 48T |
| 2030 | 47.4T | 54.8T | 40.9T | 42T – 52.8T |
| 2035 | 54.1T | 64.6T | 45T | 42.8T – 65.3T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead46.1T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.4Ttypical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.28 | 12 | -1.44 | 3.91 – 6.66 |
| 2028 | 5.94 | 12 | -5.7 | 3.41 – 8.46 |
| 2030 | 6.59 | 12 | -8.43 | 3.18 – 10.01 |
| 2035 | 8.23 | 12 | -10 | 2.83 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.58typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.9k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.3k | 10k | 8.6k | 9k – 9.6k |
| 2028 | 9.8k | 11.1k | 8.6k | 9k – 10.5k |
| 2030 | 10.3k | 12k | 8.8k | 9.1k – 11.4k |
| 2035 | 11.5k | 13.9k | 9.4k | 9.1k – 13.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.2k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±621.26typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed93.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 95.02 | 102.15 | 86.79 | 92.07 – 97.96 |
| 2028 | 99.05 | 111.4 | 84.8 | 91.72 – 106.38 |
| 2030 | 103.08 | 119.03 | 84.68 | 91.38 – 114.79 |
| 2035 | 113.16 | 135.72 | 87.14 | 89.69 – 136.64 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead94.32· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.72typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.12 | 5.74 | -1.76 | 1.28 – 2.96 |
| 2028 | -0.12 | 6.16 | -5 | -1.56 – 1.32 |
| 2030 | -2.36 | 5.74 | -5 | -4.35 – -0.38 |
| 2035 | -5 | 6.46 | -5 | -5 – -1.66 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.79· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.68typical miss · 1 realized · 44% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.5bn | 4.7bn | 4.3bn | 4.4bn – 4.6bn |
| 2028 | 4.5bn | 4.7bn | 4.3bn | 4.2bn – 4.9bn |
| 2030 | 4.6bn | 4.8bn | 4.4bn | 4bn – 5.1bn |
| 2035 | 4.6bn | 4.8bn | 4.4bn | 3.7bn – 5.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±13mtypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-11-03 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/APQ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 21.2T | 2024 (4.3) |
| 2028 | 24.4T | 2025 (2.7) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 29826821552027.246 + -1995874235991.362·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.601 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.74 | 2023 (89.4) |
| 2027 | 2.79 | 2024 (90.1) |
| 2028 | 3.01 | 2025 (93) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -3.8229 + 0.0734·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.573 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.75 | 2025 (41T) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 8.7642 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/APQ?indicator= · API docs
