Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Argentina: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Argentina's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.636 over 22 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1T | 2023 (133.49) |
Latest observed0.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.83 | 4.62 | -6.27 | -1.95 – 0.3 |
| 2028 | -0.28 | 9.15 | -9.71 | -2.25 – 1.69 |
| 2030 | 0.26 | 12.44 | -11.91 | -2.3 – 2.83 |
| 2035 | 1.63 | 18.85 | -15.59 | -2.15 – 5.4 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.92· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.43typical miss · 1 realized · 238% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.33 | 20.16 | 11.15 | 14.4 – 16.27 |
| 2028 | 14.89 | 23.25 | 7.64 | 12.98 – 16.8 |
| 2030 | 14.44 | 25.24 | 5.09 | 11.75 – 17.14 |
| 2035 | 13.33 | 28.6 | 0.1 | 9.02 – 17.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.4· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.12typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed683.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 697.9bn | 857.6bn | 559.6bn | 667.8bn – 728.1bn |
| 2028 | 742.9bn | 1T | 503.2bn | 674.3bn – 811.4bn |
| 2030 | 787.8bn | 1.1T | 478.3bn | 682.2bn – 893.3bn |
| 2035 | 900.1bn | 1.4T | 462.4bn | 695.9bn – 1.1T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead776.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±70.3bntypical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.43 | 12 | -10 | 2.87 – 9.99 |
| 2028 | 10.89 | 12 | -10 | 4.39 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 3.31 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -0.85 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.3· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.33typical miss · 1 realized · 206% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.2k | 18.8k | 12.1k | 14.5k – 15.9k |
| 2028 | 16.1k | 22.3k | 10.8k | 14.6k – 17.6k |
| 2030 | 17k | 25k | 10.1k | 14.7k – 19.3k |
| 2035 | 19.3k | 30.6k | 9.6k | 14.9k – 23.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±831.3typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed69.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 84.57 | 148.22 | 11.14 | 73.43 – 95.72 |
| 2028 | 93.52 | 203.75 | 0 | 72.07 – 114.96 |
| 2030 | 102.46 | 244.77 | 0 | 72.37 – 132.55 |
| 2035 | 124.82 | 300 | 0 | 73.89 – 175.76 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead70.51· skill-weighted across models
Track record±15.27typical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.57 | 17.31 | 11.84 | 13.92 – 15.23 |
| 2028 | 14.11 | 18.84 | 9.37 | 12.7 – 15.51 |
| 2030 | 13.64 | 19.75 | 7.53 | 11.61 – 15.66 |
| 2035 | 12.46 | 21.1 | 3.83 | 9.15 – 15.78 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.76· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.35typical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed219.88(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 37.05 |
| 2028 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2030 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.47· skill-weighted across models
Track record±37.5typical miss · 1 realized · 115% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.74 | 19.08 | 12.85 | 15.01 – 16.47 |
| 2028 | 15.21 | 20.99 | 10.2 | 13.65 – 16.77 |
| 2030 | 14.68 | 22.14 | 8.21 | 12.44 – 16.92 |
| 2035 | 13.35 | 23.9 | 4.2 | 9.7 – 16.99 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.39· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.08typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed45.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45.8m | 48m | 43.8m | 44.4m – 47.2m |
| 2028 | 46m | 48.2m | 44m | 42.6m – 49.4m |
| 2030 | 46.2m | 48.3m | 44.1m | 40.9m – 51.4m |
| 2035 | 46.6m | 48.8m | 44.5m | 36.9m – 56.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead48.2m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.1mtypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.74 | 11.2 | -1.85 | 2.75 – 4.73 |
| 2028 | 5.52 | 15 | -4.18 | 3.64 – 7.4 |
| 2030 | 7.29 | 15 | -5.22 | 4.62 – 9.96 |
| 2035 | 11.72 | 15 | -5.97 | 6.9 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.64· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.96typical miss · 1 realized · 126% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.6bn | 52.9bn | 6.4bn | 25.6bn – 33.7bn |
| 2028 | 23.7bn | 63.9bn | 0 | 16.4bn – 31bn |
| 2030 | 17.8bn | 69.7bn | 0 | 8.4bn – 27.1bn |
| 2035 | 2.9bn | 76.4bn | 0 | 0 – 14.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead34.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.37 | 6.86 | 1.88 | 3.92 – 4.82 |
| 2028 | 4.78 | 9.08 | 0.47 | 3.89 – 5.66 |
| 2030 | 4.98 | 10.54 | 0 | 3.73 – 6.22 |
| 2035 | 5.13 | 13 | 0 | 3.11 – 7.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.81· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.3bn | 63.5bn | 15.1bn | 35bn – 43.6bn |
| 2028 | 35.9bn | 77.8bn | 0 | 27.7bn – 44bn |
| 2030 | 32.5bn | 86.5bn | 0 | 21.6bn – 43.3bn |
| 2035 | 23.9bn | 100.4bn | 0 | 8.4bn – 39.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead43.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.37 | 8.99 | 3.76 | 5.87 – 6.88 |
| 2028 | 4.83 | 9.36 | 0.3 | 3.91 – 5.76 |
| 2030 | 3.29 | 9.13 | 0 | 2.13 – 4.44 |
| 2035 | 0 | 8.27 | 0 | 0 – 1.43 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.62· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.23typical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/ARG · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 1.6T | 2024 (219.88) |
| 2028 | 560.6bn | 2025 (41.9) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 314066742233.1334 + 5883066840.9583·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.594 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 82.71 | 2025 (683.1bn) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -34.8282 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.555 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.03 | 2025 (80.1) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -3.7927 + 0.0477·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.524 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.02 | 2024 (0.9) |
| 2027 | 1.85 | 2025 (-1.1) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 3.0403 + 1.0843·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/ARG?indicator= · API docs
