Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Armenia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Armenia's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.754 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 154.57 | 2026 (5.3) |
Latest observed-6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -6.15 | -1.07 | -11.23 | -7.29 – -5.02 |
| 2029 | -6.46 | 2.34 | -15.26 | -8.57 – -4.36 |
| 2031 | -6.77 | 4.59 | -18.12 | -9.63 – -3.91 |
| 2036 | -7.54 | 8.52 | -23.6 | -12.02 – -3.05 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-5.29· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed48.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 51.99 | 80.93 | 26.9 | 47.02 – 56.95 |
| 2028 | 59.76 | 109.89 | 16.31 | 49.73 – 69.79 |
| 2030 | 67.53 | 132.25 | 11.44 | 52.88 – 82.18 |
| 2035 | 86.96 | 150 | 7.63 | 59.97 – 113.95 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead48.84· skill-weighted across models
Track record±30.16typical miss · 1 realized · 63% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 34bn | 38.3bn | 30.3bn | 33bn – 35.1bn |
| 2029 | 39.6bn | 47bn | 33.1bn | 36.7bn – 42.5bn |
| 2031 | 45.1bn | 54.8bn | 36.8bn | 40bn – 50.3bn |
| 2036 | 59bn | 72.6bn | 47.3bn | 46.8bn – 71.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead34.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.01 | 12 | -2.07 | 3.57 – 6.45 |
| 2029 | 4.18 | 12 | -8.09 | 1.62 – 6.74 |
| 2031 | 3.35 | 12 | -10 | 0.04 – 6.67 |
| 2036 | 1.28 | 12 | -10 | -3.24 – 5.79 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.82· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 11k | 12.5k | 9.8k | 10.7k – 11.4k |
| 2029 | 12.7k | 15.3k | 10.5k | 11.8k – 13.7k |
| 2031 | 14.4k | 17.7k | 11.6k | 12.8k – 16.1k |
| 2036 | 18.6k | 23.3k | 14.6k | 14.8k – 22.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.3k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed50.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 49.36 | 61.75 | 35.06 | 46.66 – 52.05 |
| 2029 | 46.87 | 68.34 | 22.1 | 41.32 – 52.43 |
| 2031 | 44.39 | 72.1 | 12.41 | 36.57 – 52.2 |
| 2036 | 38.18 | 77.37 | 0 | 26.04 – 50.31 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead50.08· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55.79 | 80.99 | 30.6 | 51.05 – 60.54 |
| 2028 | 60.17 | 103.81 | 16.53 | 50.6 – 69.74 |
| 2030 | 64.55 | 120.88 | 8.21 | 50.76 – 78.33 |
| 2035 | 75.49 | 150 | 0 | 51.21 – 99.76 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead47.26· skill-weighted across models
Track record±25.6typical miss · 1 realized · 48% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.54 | 10.34 | -3.75 | 1.98 – 5.11 |
| 2029 | 3.95 | 15.73 | -5 | 1.15 – 6.75 |
| 2031 | 4.36 | 19.57 | -5 | 0.64 – 8.08 |
| 2036 | 5.39 | 26.9 | -5 | -0.24 – 11.02 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.2· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.75 | 24.75 | 19.16 | 20.98 – 22.53 |
| 2028 | 22.69 | 27.87 | 18.2 | 20.86 – 24.52 |
| 2030 | 23.63 | 30.32 | 17.83 | 20.78 – 26.47 |
| 2035 | 25.97 | 35.43 | 17.77 | 20.46 – 31.47 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.86· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.12typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3m | 3.2m | 2.9m | 2.9m – 3.1m |
| 2029 | 3m | 3.2m | 2.9m | 2.8m – 3.2m |
| 2031 | 3m | 3.1m | 2.9m | 2.6m – 3.3m |
| 2036 | 2.9m | 3.1m | 2.8m | 2.3m – 3.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.1m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.15 | 15 | -10 | 1.47 – 8.83 |
| 2028 | 2.67 | 15 | -10 | -3.69 – 9.03 |
| 2030 | 0.19 | 15 | -10 | -7.93 – 8.31 |
| 2035 | -6.01 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 6.33 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.75· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.46typical miss · 1 realized · 53% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.3bn | 6.5bn | 4.1bn | 5bn – 5.6bn |
| 2028 | 5.9bn | 8bn | 3.8bn | 5.3bn – 6.5bn |
| 2030 | 6.6bn | 9.2bn | 3.9bn | 5.6bn – 7.5bn |
| 2035 | 8.1bn | 11.9bn | 4.3bn | 6.2bn – 10bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.61 | 5.61 | 1.6 | 3.24 – 3.97 |
| 2028 | 3.84 | 7.32 | 0.37 | 3.13 – 4.56 |
| 2030 | 3.96 | 8.45 | 0 | 2.96 – 4.96 |
| 2035 | 4.05 | 10.4 | 0 | 2.43 – 5.67 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.33· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.3bn | 6.5bn | 4.1bn | 5bn – 5.6bn |
| 2028 | 5.9bn | 8bn | 3.8bn | 5.3bn – 6.5bn |
| 2030 | 6.6bn | 9.2bn | 3.9bn | 5.6bn – 7.5bn |
| 2035 | 8.1bn | 11.9bn | 4.3bn | 6.2bn – 10bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 12.37 | 14.11 | 10.62 | 11.9 – 12.83 |
| 2029 | 11.51 | 14.53 | 8.48 | 10.49 – 12.52 |
| 2031 | 10.65 | 14.55 | 6.74 | 9.2 – 12.09 |
| 2036 | 8.49 | 14.01 | 2.97 | 6.29 – 10.69 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.57· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/ARM · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 485.9472 + -62.5245·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.591 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 65.86 | 2024 (26bn) |
| 2028 | 70.08 | 2025 (29.2bn) |
| 2029 | 73.46 | 2026 (31.9bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 32.5558 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.565 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.6bn | 2024 (12.41) |
| 2028 | 10bn | 2025 (12.87) |
| 2029 | 10bn | 2026 (12.8) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -1818589794.4549 + 921446953.7521·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.54 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 20.59 | 2024 (26bn) |
| 2028 | 21.84 | 2025 (29.2bn) |
| 2029 | 22.84 | 2026 (31.9bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 10.7112 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/ARM?indicator= · API docs
