Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Antigua and Barbuda: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Antigua and Barbuda's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.706 over 11 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.32 | 2025 (-11.6) |
Latest observed-12.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -11.33 | -0.88 | -21.79 | -13.65 – -9.02 |
| 2028 | -10.8 | 7.31 | -28.91 | -15.02 – -6.58 |
| 2030 | -10.27 | 13.12 | -30 | -15.86 – -4.67 |
| 2035 | -8.93 | 24.14 | -30 | -17.11 – -0.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-12.56· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.37typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 51.6 | 75.14 | 31.19 | 47.41 – 55.78 |
| 2025 | 44.78 | 85.56 | 9.44 | 36.81 – 52.76 |
| 2027 | 37.97 | 90.62 | 0 | 27.41 – 48.53 |
| 2032 | 20.94 | 95.39 | 0 | 6.95 – 34.93 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead57.07· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.4bn | 2.8bn | 2.1bn | 2.4bn – 2.5bn |
| 2028 | 2.7bn | 3.4bn | 2.2bn | 2.5bn – 2.9bn |
| 2030 | 3bn | 3.8bn | 2.3bn | 2.7bn – 3.3bn |
| 2035 | 3.7bn | 4.9bn | 2.7bn | 2.9bn – 4.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±54.4mtypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.21 | 12 | -10 | 2.13 – 10.29 |
| 2028 | 9.04 | 12 | -10 | 1.71 – 12 |
| 2030 | 11.87 | 12 | -10 | 2.02 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -2.51 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.59· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.81typical miss · 1 realized · 159% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.9k | 29.9k | 22.4k | 25k – 26.8k |
| 2028 | 28.5k | 35.5k | 22.5k | 26.3k – 30.8k |
| 2030 | 31.2k | 40.3k | 23.4k | 27.7k – 34.8k |
| 2035 | 38k | 50.7k | 26.9k | 30.1k – 45.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.2k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.4ktypical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed66.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 68.46 | 83.67 | 50.91 | 65.03 – 71.9 |
| 2028 | 64.99 | 91.34 | 34.59 | 57.82 – 72.17 |
| 2030 | 61.52 | 95.53 | 22.28 | 51.37 – 71.68 |
| 2035 | 52.84 | 100.94 | 0 | 36.99 – 68.7 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead65.38· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.66typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed63.3(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 62.77 | 77.08 | 48.47 | 59.58 – 65.97 |
| 2025 | 61.72 | 86.5 | 36.94 | 54.96 – 68.48 |
| 2027 | 60.67 | 92.66 | 28.67 | 50.92 – 70.42 |
| 2032 | 58.03 | 103.28 | 12.79 | 41.82 – 74.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead65.21· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.65 | 6.53 | -5 | -2.25 – 0.96 |
| 2028 | -5 | 7.43 | -5 | -5 – -2 |
| 2030 | -5 | 11.05 | -5 | -5 – -1.04 |
| 2035 | -5 | 17.7 | -5 | -5 – 0.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.55· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.25typical miss · 1 realized · 118% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed94.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 94.1k | 98.5k | 90k | 91.2k – 97k |
| 2028 | 94.6k | 99k | 90.4k | 87.6k – 101.6k |
| 2030 | 95k | 99.5k | 90.9k | 84.3k – 105.8k |
| 2035 | 96.2k | 100.8k | 92k | 76.3k – 116.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead107.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±11.9ktypical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed378.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 378.2m | 504.1m | 252.2m | 352.8m – 403.5m |
| 2028 | 382.4m | 600.6m | 164.2m | 330.7m – 434.2m |
| 2030 | 386.7m | 668.4m | 105m | 312.6m – 460.7m |
| 2035 | 397.3m | 795.8m | 0 | 272.8m – 521.9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead383.6m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.13 | 4.47 | 1.79 | 2.87 – 3.38 |
| 2028 | 3.27 | 5.6 | 0.95 | 2.76 – 3.79 |
| 2030 | 3.35 | 6.34 | 0.35 | 2.62 – 4.07 |
| 2035 | 3.4 | 7.64 | 0 | 2.21 – 4.6 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.03· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed378.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 378.2m | 504.1m | 252.2m | 352.8m – 403.5m |
| 2028 | 382.4m | 600.6m | 164.2m | 330.7m – 434.2m |
| 2030 | 386.7m | 668.4m | 105m | 312.6m – 460.7m |
| 2035 | 397.3m | 795.8m | 0 | 272.8m – 521.9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead383.6m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/ATG · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 0.2172 + -0.2674·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.653 over 9 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.9bn | 2023 (-12.9) |
| 2027 | 1.8bn | 2024 (-7.5) |
| 2028 | 1.9bn | 2025 (-11.6) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 1580539870.7816 + -27613934.1136·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.633 over 12 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -21.85 | 2023 (2.1bn) |
| 2027 | -24.37 | 2024 (2.2bn) |
| 2028 | -28.48 | 2025 (2.3bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 26.062 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/ATG?indicator= · API docs
