Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Australia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Australia's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.807 over 37 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.94 | 2025 (-2.6) |
Latest observed-3.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.82 | 0.28 | -5.92 | -3.5 – -2.14 |
| 2028 | -3.26 | 2.11 | -8.63 | -4.51 – -2.01 |
| 2030 | -3.7 | 3.23 | -10.63 | -5.41 – -1.99 |
| 2035 | -4.8 | 5 | -14.61 | -7.57 – -2.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-2.85· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.28typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.54 | 27.76 | 19.88 | 22.56 – 24.52 |
| 2028 | 24.12 | 31.43 | 17.79 | 21.92 – 26.32 |
| 2030 | 24.71 | 34.14 | 16.53 | 21.38 – 28.03 |
| 2035 | 26.17 | 39.51 | 14.6 | 20.08 – 32.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.3· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.98typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.8T | 2T | 1.7T | 1.8T – 1.9T |
| 2028 | 1.9T | 2.3T | 1.6T | 1.8T – 2.1T |
| 2030 | 2T | 2.5T | 1.6T | 1.8T – 2.3T |
| 2035 | 2.3T | 2.9T | 1.7T | 1.8T – 2.7T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.2T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±277.7bntypical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.75 | 4.33 | -2.35 | 0.14 – 1.36 |
| 2028 | -0.53 | 5.67 | -5.9 | -1.61 – 0.55 |
| 2030 | -1.81 | 6.2 | -8.74 | -3.29 – -0.33 |
| 2035 | -5.01 | 6.31 | -10 | -7.69 – -2.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.82· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.15typical miss · 1 realized · 60% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 65.5k | 73.6k | 58.5k | 63.5k – 67.6k |
| 2028 | 66.9k | 80.9k | 54.8k | 62k – 71.9k |
| 2030 | 68.3k | 86.4k | 52.6k | 60.5k – 76.1k |
| 2035 | 71.8k | 97.3k | 49.6k | 56.9k – 86.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead76.6k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±9.6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed52.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 53.23 | 60.75 | 44.56 | 51.23 – 55.24 |
| 2028 | 55.9 | 68.91 | 40.88 | 51.21 – 60.58 |
| 2030 | 58.56 | 75.36 | 39.18 | 51.29 – 65.83 |
| 2035 | 65.23 | 88.99 | 37.81 | 51.14 – 79.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead53.28· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.63typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.85 | 25.82 | 19.89 | 22.03 – 23.67 |
| 2028 | 23.25 | 28.39 | 18.11 | 21.35 – 25.15 |
| 2030 | 23.64 | 30.27 | 17.01 | 20.74 – 26.55 |
| 2035 | 24.63 | 34.01 | 15.25 | 19.25 – 30.01 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.41· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.05typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.97 | 7.43 | -1.81 | 1.93 – 4 |
| 2028 | 2.56 | 10.28 | -5 | 0.72 – 4.39 |
| 2030 | 2.15 | 12.12 | -5 | -0.23 – 4.53 |
| 2035 | 1.12 | 15.23 | -5 | -2.18 – 4.43 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.95· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.93typical miss · 1 realized · 24% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.55 | 25.84 | 23.43 | 23.79 – 25.31 |
| 2028 | 25.11 | 27.35 | 23.16 | 23.25 – 26.96 |
| 2030 | 25.66 | 28.56 | 23.15 | 22.75 – 28.58 |
| 2035 | 27.05 | 31.15 | 23.51 | 21.44 – 32.67 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.15· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.06typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.5m | 28.8m | 26.3m | 26.6m – 28.3m |
| 2028 | 27.9m | 29.3m | 26.7m | 25.9m – 30m |
| 2030 | 28.4m | 29.7m | 27.1m | 25.2m – 31.6m |
| 2035 | 29.6m | 30.9m | 28.3m | 23.4m – 35.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.4m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±607.5ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.03 | 3.43 | -2.63 | -0.48 – 0.42 |
| 2028 | -0.18 | 5.82 | -4.68 | -0.97 – 0.62 |
| 2030 | -0.32 | 7.42 | -6.13 | -1.37 – 0.73 |
| 2035 | -0.69 | 10.27 | -8.9 | -2.21 – 0.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.03· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.09typical miss · 1 realized · 239% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 63.6bn | 81.2bn | 46.1bn | 59.9bn – 67.3bn |
| 2028 | 67.7bn | 98.1bn | 37.3bn | 59.8bn – 75.6bn |
| 2030 | 71.7bn | 111bn | 32.5bn | 60bn – 83.5bn |
| 2035 | 81.9bn | 137.4bn | 26.4bn | 60.3bn – 103.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead63.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6 | 2.12 | 1.07 | 1.49 – 1.7 |
| 2028 | 1.61 | 2.53 | 0.7 | 1.4 – 1.83 |
| 2030 | 1.62 | 2.8 | 0.44 | 1.31 – 1.93 |
| 2035 | 1.63 | 3.3 | 0 | 1.11 – 2.15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.57· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed72.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 75.5bn | 93.9bn | 57.1bn | 71.5bn – 79.5bn |
| 2028 | 83bn | 114.9bn | 51.1bn | 74.1bn – 91.8bn |
| 2030 | 90.4bn | 131.6bn | 49.3bn | 76.9bn – 104bn |
| 2035 | 109.1bn | 167.4bn | 50.9bn | 82.8bn – 135.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead75bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.67 | 5.08 | 2.25 | 3.39 – 3.94 |
| 2028 | 2.82 | 5.27 | 0.37 | 2.31 – 3.33 |
| 2030 | 1.97 | 5.13 | 0 | 1.33 – 2.61 |
| 2035 | 0 | 4.47 | 0 | 0 – 0.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.4· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.73typical miss · 1 realized · 17% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/AUS · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 48.1653 + 5.4713·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.796 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.59 | 2025 (51.9) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -6.8024 + 0.1198·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.719 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.3T | 2025 (4.09) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 2236495472350.001 + -218952335693.7568·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.677 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.12 | 2025 (1.8T) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 8.2352 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.507 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.82 | 2024 (3.94) |
| 2027 | 1.89 | 2025 (4.09) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 0.1342 + 0.4286·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/AUS?indicator= · API docs
