Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Australia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Australia's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.798 over 38 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 36.08 | 2026 (-2.3) |
Latest observed-2.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -2.9 | -0.48 | -5.32 | -3.44 – -2.36 |
| 2029 | -4.11 | 0.08 | -8.3 | -5.16 – -3.05 |
| 2031 | -5.31 | 0.1 | -10.72 | -6.84 – -3.78 |
| 2036 | -8.32 | -0.67 | -15.98 | -11.22 – -5.43 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.97· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.54 | 27.76 | 19.88 | 22.56 – 24.52 |
| 2028 | 24.12 | 31.43 | 17.79 | 21.92 – 26.32 |
| 2030 | 24.71 | 34.14 | 16.53 | 21.38 – 28.03 |
| 2035 | 26.17 | 39.51 | 14.6 | 20.08 – 32.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.3· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.98typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.2T | 2.5T | 2T | 2.1T – 2.3T |
| 2029 | 2.4T | 2.9T | 2T | 2.2T – 2.6T |
| 2031 | 2.7T | 3.2T | 2.1T | 2.4T – 3T |
| 2036 | 3.2T | 4T | 2.5T | 2.5T – 3.9T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.2T· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.1 | 5.19 | -0.58 | 1.55 – 2.65 |
| 2029 | 2.25 | 7.6 | -2.38 | 1.25 – 3.25 |
| 2031 | 2.4 | 9.3 | -3.58 | 1.06 – 3.74 |
| 2036 | 2.78 | 12 | -5.68 | 0.71 – 4.85 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.94· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 77.8k | 87.8k | 69.2k | 75.4k – 80.3k |
| 2029 | 83.8k | 101.1k | 68.8k | 77.6k – 90k |
| 2031 | 89.7k | 112k | 70.4k | 79.5k – 99.9k |
| 2036 | 104.6k | 136.2k | 77.2k | 82.9k – 126.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead77.2k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed50.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 51.48 | 59.05 | 42.74 | 49.49 – 53.47 |
| 2029 | 53.23 | 66.35 | 38.1 | 48.66 – 57.81 |
| 2031 | 54.99 | 71.92 | 35.45 | 47.98 – 61.99 |
| 2036 | 59.38 | 83.32 | 31.74 | 46.19 – 72.56 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead51.08· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.85 | 25.82 | 19.89 | 22.03 – 23.67 |
| 2028 | 23.25 | 28.39 | 18.11 | 21.35 – 25.15 |
| 2030 | 23.64 | 30.27 | 17.01 | 20.74 – 26.55 |
| 2035 | 24.63 | 34.01 | 15.25 | 19.25 – 30.01 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.41· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.05typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.54 | 8.79 | -0.01 | 3.53 – 5.56 |
| 2029 | 6.12 | 13.48 | -1.77 | 4.19 – 8.04 |
| 2031 | 7.69 | 17.2 | -2.49 | 4.97 – 10.42 |
| 2036 | 11.63 | 25.07 | -2.76 | 6.79 – 16.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.08· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.55 | 25.84 | 23.43 | 23.79 – 25.31 |
| 2028 | 25.11 | 27.35 | 23.16 | 23.25 – 26.96 |
| 2030 | 25.66 | 28.56 | 23.15 | 22.75 – 28.58 |
| 2035 | 27.05 | 31.15 | 23.51 | 21.44 – 32.67 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.15· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.06typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 28m | 29.3m | 26.7m | 27.1m – 28.8m |
| 2029 | 28.5m | 29.8m | 27.2m | 26.4m – 30.6m |
| 2031 | 29m | 30.3m | 27.7m | 25.7m – 32.3m |
| 2036 | 30.2m | 31.7m | 28.9m | 24m – 36.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.4m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.03 | 3.43 | -2.63 | -0.48 – 0.42 |
| 2028 | -0.18 | 5.82 | -4.68 | -0.97 – 0.62 |
| 2030 | -0.32 | 7.42 | -6.13 | -1.37 – 0.73 |
| 2035 | -0.69 | 10.27 | -8.9 | -2.21 – 0.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.03· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.09typical miss · 1 realized · 239% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 63.6bn | 81.2bn | 46.1bn | 59.9bn – 67.3bn |
| 2028 | 67.7bn | 98.1bn | 37.3bn | 59.8bn – 75.6bn |
| 2030 | 71.7bn | 111bn | 32.5bn | 60bn – 83.5bn |
| 2035 | 81.9bn | 137.4bn | 26.4bn | 60.3bn – 103.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead63.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6 | 2.13 | 1.07 | 1.49 – 1.7 |
| 2028 | 1.62 | 2.53 | 0.7 | 1.4 – 1.83 |
| 2030 | 1.62 | 2.8 | 0.44 | 1.31 – 1.93 |
| 2035 | 1.63 | 3.3 | 0 | 1.11 – 2.15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.57· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed72.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 75.5bn | 93.9bn | 57.1bn | 71.5bn – 79.5bn |
| 2028 | 83bn | 114.9bn | 51.1bn | 74.1bn – 91.8bn |
| 2030 | 90.4bn | 131.6bn | 49.3bn | 76.9bn – 104bn |
| 2035 | 109.1bn | 167.4bn | 50.9bn | 82.8bn – 135.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead75bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.12 | 5.25 | 2.99 | 3.88 – 4.36 |
| 2029 | 3.96 | 5.92 | 2.01 | 3.48 – 4.45 |
| 2031 | 3.81 | 6.33 | 1.29 | 3.12 – 4.5 |
| 2036 | 3.41 | 6.98 | 0 | 2.32 – 4.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.18· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/AUS · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 48.8546 + 5.5522·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.789 over 37 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.89 | 2026 (50.6) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -6.7073 + 0.115·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.733 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.5T | 2024 (3.94) |
| 2028 | 1.5T | 2025 (4.09) |
| 2029 | 1.4T | 2026 (4.2) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 2418109286814.9463 + -235596484138.38·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.69 over 47 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.38 | 2026 (2.1T) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 8.2325 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.513 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.9 | 2025 (4.09) |
| 2028 | 1.95 | 2026 (4.2) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 0.1584 + 0.4255·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/AUS?indicator= · API docs
