Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Austria: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Austria's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.922 over 38 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 87.37 | 2023 (516.7bn) |
Latest observed1.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.84 | 5.46 | -1.78 | 1.07 – 2.61 |
| 2028 | 1.71 | 7.98 | -4.55 | 0.35 – 3.08 |
| 2030 | 1.59 | 9.68 | -6.5 | -0.19 – 3.37 |
| 2035 | 1.28 | 12.72 | -10.16 | -1.26 – 3.82 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.27· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.44typical miss · 1 realized · 31% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.91 | 62.17 | 48.62 | 53 – 56.83 |
| 2028 | 55.34 | 67.91 | 44.44 | 50.89 – 59.79 |
| 2030 | 55.76 | 72 | 41.7 | 48.98 – 62.55 |
| 2035 | 56.83 | 79.79 | 36.93 | 44.46 – 69.2 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead55.17· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.5typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed579.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 601.8bn | 653.6bn | 557bn | 583.2bn – 620.5bn |
| 2028 | 657.4bn | 747bn | 579.7bn | 608.7bn – 706bn |
| 2030 | 712.9bn | 828.6bn | 612.6bn | 632bn – 793.8bn |
| 2035 | 851.7bn | 1T | 709.9bn | 675.1bn – 1T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead642.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±15.1bntypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.17 | 12 | -8.99 | -0.8 – 3.15 |
| 2028 | 2.3 | 12 | -10 | -1.2 – 5.79 |
| 2030 | 3.42 | 12 | -10 | -1.22 – 8.07 |
| 2035 | 6.24 | 12 | -10 | -0.94 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.09· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.57typical miss · 1 realized · 95% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 65.1k | 70.8k | 60.1k | 63k – 67.1k |
| 2028 | 70.4k | 80.3k | 61.8k | 65.2k – 75.6k |
| 2030 | 75.7k | 88.5k | 64.6k | 67.1k – 84.3k |
| 2035 | 89.1k | 107.2k | 73.4k | 70.6k – 107.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead69.5k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.69(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.04 | 4.93 | 1.01 | 2.53 – 3.56 |
| 2029 | 2.27 | 5.55 | 0 | 1.36 – 3.19 |
| 2031 | 1.9 | 6.13 | 0 | 0.7 – 3.09 |
| 2036 | 1.59 | 7.58 | 0 | 0 – 3.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.82· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed82.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 81.55 | 90.67 | 71.02 | 78.84 – 84.26 |
| 2028 | 81.85 | 97.65 | 63.62 | 75.49 – 88.21 |
| 2030 | 82.15 | 102.55 | 58.61 | 72.44 – 91.86 |
| 2035 | 82.9 | 111.75 | 49.62 | 65.2 – 100.61 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead82.74· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.85typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed52.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.72 | 61.96 | 43.48 | 50.46 – 54.98 |
| 2028 | 53.53 | 69.54 | 37.52 | 48.51 – 58.55 |
| 2030 | 54.34 | 75 | 33.67 | 46.82 – 61.85 |
| 2035 | 56.35 | 85.58 | 27.12 | 42.86 – 69.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead53.07· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.66typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.17 | 11.15 | -3.3 | 2.56 – 5.78 |
| 2028 | 5 | 17.08 | -5 | 2.08 – 7.92 |
| 2030 | 5.82 | 21.42 | -5 | 1.9 – 9.75 |
| 2035 | 7.88 | 29.95 | -5 | 1.73 – 14.04 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.81· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.07typical miss · 1 realized · 35% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.61 | 10.12 | -3.36 | 2.11 – 5.11 |
| 2029 | 3.62 | 14.89 | -5 | 0.95 – 6.3 |
| 2031 | 3.63 | 18.18 | -5 | 0.11 – 7.14 |
| 2036 | 3.63 | 24.21 | -5 | -1.51 – 8.77 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.16· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.18 | 24.56 | 21.98 | 22.46 – 23.9 |
| 2028 | 22.34 | 24.73 | 20.26 | 20.69 – 23.99 |
| 2030 | 21.49 | 24.59 | 18.81 | 19.05 – 23.93 |
| 2035 | 19.38 | 23.76 | 15.59 | 15.36 – 23.4 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.42· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.31typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.2m | 9.6m | 8.8m | 8.9m – 9.5m |
| 2028 | 9.2m | 9.7m | 8.8m | 8.5m – 9.9m |
| 2030 | 9.3m | 9.7m | 8.8m | 8.2m – 10.3m |
| 2035 | 9.3m | 9.8m | 8.9m | 7.4m – 11.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.2m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±16.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1 | 13.37 | -8.1 | -0.45 – 2.65 |
| 2028 | 0.94 | 15 | -10 | -1.77 – 3.64 |
| 2030 | 0.78 | 15 | -10 | -2.73 – 4.29 |
| 2035 | 0.37 | 15 | -10 | -4.64 – 5.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.35· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.17typical miss · 1 realized · 256% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.7bn | 19.2bn | 8.2bn | 12.6bn – 14.7bn |
| 2028 | 12.9bn | 22.4bn | 3.4bn | 10.8bn – 14.9bn |
| 2030 | 12bn | 24.3bn | 0 | 9.2bn – 14.9bn |
| 2035 | 10bn | 27.4bn | 0 | 5.8bn – 14.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.64 | 2.16 | 1.12 | 1.53 – 1.74 |
| 2028 | 1.45 | 2.34 | 0.55 | 1.24 – 1.65 |
| 2030 | 1.35 | 2.51 | 0.2 | 1.07 – 1.64 |
| 2035 | 1.28 | 2.91 | 0 | 0.82 – 1.73 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.89· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 57.4bn | 69.7bn | 45.1bn | 54.6bn – 60.2bn |
| 2028 | 67.8bn | 89.1bn | 46.6bn | 61.3bn – 74.4bn |
| 2030 | 78.3bn | 105.8bn | 50.8bn | 67.8bn – 88.7bn |
| 2035 | 104.3bn | 143.2bn | 65.5bn | 81.7bn – 127bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead57.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.54 | 7.27 | 3.8 | 5.18 – 5.89 |
| 2028 | 5.44 | 8.45 | 2.44 | 4.72 – 6.17 |
| 2030 | 5.35 | 9.24 | 1.47 | 4.33 – 6.38 |
| 2035 | 5.12 | 10.62 | 0 | 3.46 – 6.79 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.68· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.16typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/AUT · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 88.66 | 2024 (534.8bn) |
| 2028 | 91.84 | 2025 (579.5bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 50.6041 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.817 over 37 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 442.1bn | 2025 (81.4) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -419495323973.4619 + 10584445113.3529·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.766 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.09 | 2023 (516.7bn) |
| 2027 | 6.2 | 2024 (534.8bn) |
| 2028 | 6.47 | 2025 (579.5bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 2.9529 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.57 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.06 | 2025 (579.5bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -1.711 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.503 over 65 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.07 | 2025 (579.5bn) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 3.9493 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/AUT?indicator= · API docs
