Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
AZQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, AZQ's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.804 over 37 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.82 | 2025 (-2.7) |
Latest observed-3.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.92 | -0.12 | -5.71 | -3.53 – -2.3 |
| 2028 | -3.35 | 1.5 | -8.2 | -4.5 – -2.2 |
| 2030 | -3.78 | 2.47 | -10.04 | -5.36 – -2.2 |
| 2035 | -4.87 | 3.98 | -13.72 | -7.45 – -2.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.04· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.28typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.1T | 2.4T | 1.9T | 2.1T – 2.2T |
| 2028 | 2.3T | 2.7T | 1.9T | 2.1T – 2.4T |
| 2030 | 2.4T | 2.9T | 1.9T | 2.1T – 2.6T |
| 2035 | 2.7T | 3.4T | 2T | 2.1T – 3.2T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.5T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±239.9bntypical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.75 | 8.95 | -4.49 | 0.52 – 2.98 |
| 2028 | 1.63 | 12 | -9.19 | -0.53 – 3.78 |
| 2030 | 1.5 | 12 | -10 | -1.3 – 4.3 |
| 2035 | 1.19 | 12 | -10 | -2.8 – 5.17 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.56· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.15typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed71.3k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 64.2k | 72.3k | 57.1k | 62.2k – 66.1k |
| 2028 | 66k | 80k | 53.7k | 61.1k – 70.8k |
| 2030 | 67.8k | 85.9k | 52k | 60.1k – 75.5k |
| 2035 | 72.3k | 98k | 50k | 57.3k – 87.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead72.3k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 53.83 | 61.06 | 45.5 | 51.86 – 55.81 |
| 2028 | 56.9 | 69.42 | 42.46 | 52.25 – 61.56 |
| 2030 | 59.97 | 76.13 | 41.33 | 52.69 – 67.26 |
| 2035 | 67.65 | 90.5 | 41.27 | 53.31 – 81.98 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead53.94· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.73typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.85 | 7.31 | -1.93 | 1.82 – 3.89 |
| 2028 | 2.29 | 10.02 | -5 | 0.47 – 4.11 |
| 2030 | 1.73 | 11.71 | -5 | -0.62 – 4.08 |
| 2035 | 0.33 | 14.45 | -5 | -2.96 – 3.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.94· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.05typical miss · 1 realized · 27% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.4m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.9m | 34.4m | 31.4m | 31.9m – 33.9m |
| 2028 | 33.3m | 34.9m | 31.8m | 30.8m – 35.8m |
| 2030 | 33.7m | 35.3m | 32.2m | 29.9m – 37.5m |
| 2035 | 34.7m | 36.4m | 33.2m | 27.5m – 42m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead33.8m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±546.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/AZQ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 50.4319 + 5.7824·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.767 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.96 | 2025 (52.3) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -6.6872 + 0.1096·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.573 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.7T | 2025 (52.3) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 297586526279.0557 + 27478133536.4606·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/AZQ?indicator= · API docs
