Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Burundi: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2033, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Burundi's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.964 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.4bn | 2024 (0.92) |
Latest observed-6.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.87 | -0 | -11.73 | -7.16 – -4.58 |
| 2028 | -4.8 | 5.35 | -14.95 | -7.1 – -2.5 |
| 2030 | -3.73 | 9.38 | -16.84 | -6.71 – -0.76 |
| 2035 | -1.07 | 17.47 | -19.61 | -5.02 – 2.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-7.84· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.93typical miss · 1 realized · 14% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2bn | 4.1bn | 2.5bn | 3.1bn – 3.4bn |
| 2028 | 3bn | 4.5bn | 1.8bn | 2.7bn – 3.3bn |
| 2030 | 2.8bn | 4.6bn | 1.2bn | 2.3bn – 3.2bn |
| 2035 | 2.2bn | 4.8bn | 0 | 1.5bn – 2.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.4bntypical miss · 1 realized · 57% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.72 | 7.37 | 2.42 | 4.2 – 5.24 |
| 2028 | 5.84 | 10.43 | 1.86 | 4.79 – 6.88 |
| 2030 | 6.95 | 12 | 1.82 | 5.41 – 8.5 |
| 2035 | 9.74 | 12 | 2.48 | 6.79 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.64· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.12typical miss · 1 realized · 31% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed233.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 220.33 | 282.53 | 166.42 | 209.4 – 231.26 |
| 2028 | 191.32 | 299.06 | 97.96 | 169.32 – 213.33 |
| 2030 | 162.32 | 301.4 | 41.79 | 132.78 – 191.86 |
| 2035 | 89.81 | 286.5 | 0 | 52.03 – 127.6 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead529.92· skill-weighted across models
Track record±290.04typical miss · 1 realized · 57% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.43 | 54.53 | 28.47 | 39.89 – 44.97 |
| 2028 | 43.3 | 64.25 | 19.12 | 37.99 – 48.6 |
| 2030 | 44.16 | 71.21 | 12.94 | 36.47 – 51.86 |
| 2035 | 46.32 | 84.58 | 2.17 | 33.02 – 59.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead40.09· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.03typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40 | 50 | 23.99 | 36.05 – 43.95 |
| 2028 | 50 | 50 | 22.27 | 41.86 – 50 |
| 2030 | 50 | 50 | 14.21 | 38.59 – 50 |
| 2035 | 50 | 50 | -0.62 | 31.53 – 50 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.92· skill-weighted across models
Track record±29.5typical miss · 1 realized · 281% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.3m | 15m | 13.7m | 13.8m – 14.7m |
| 2028 | 14.7m | 15.4m | 14m | 13.6m – 15.8m |
| 2030 | 15m | 15.8m | 14.4m | 13.3m – 16.8m |
| 2035 | 16m | 16.7m | 15.3m | 12.7m – 19.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.2m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±611.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.23 | 4.06 | -0.88 | 0.86 – 1.61 |
| 2028 | 2.32 | 7.21 | -1.34 | 1.6 – 3.04 |
| 2030 | 3.41 | 9.72 | -1.32 | 2.35 – 4.47 |
| 2035 | 6.12 | 15 | -0.57 | 4.03 – 8.22 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.91· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.06typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed88.4m(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 87.8m | 254.1m | 0 | 60.9m – 114.6m |
| 2026 | 82.8m | 370.8m | 0 | 34.7m – 130.8m |
| 2028 | 77.8m | 449.5m | 0 | 14.6m – 140.9m |
| 2033 | 65.2m | 591m | 0 | 0 – 156.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead80.9m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.73(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1.01 | 2.92 | 0 | 0.7 – 1.32 |
| 2026 | 1.34 | 4.65 | 0 | 0.76 – 1.91 |
| 2028 | 1.49 | 5.78 | 0 | 0.72 – 2.27 |
| 2033 | 1.62 | 7.68 | 0 | 0.44 – 2.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.59· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed90.3m(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 89.8m | 256m | 0 | 63m – 116.7m |
| 2026 | 85m | 372.8m | 0 | 36.8m – 133.1m |
| 2028 | 80.1m | 451.7m | 0 | 16.8m – 143.4m |
| 2033 | 68m | 593.5m | 0 | 0 – 159.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead82.9m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.89 | 1.09 | 0.69 | 0.84 – 0.94 |
| 2028 | 0.82 | 1.16 | 0.49 | 0.72 – 0.92 |
| 2030 | 0.76 | 1.19 | 0.32 | 0.61 – 0.9 |
| 2035 | 0.59 | 1.21 | 0 | 0.34 – 0.85 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.91· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/BDI · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 3.4bn | 2025 (0.92) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 4340209274.4786 + -1069075162.8846·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.94 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.78 | 2025 (3.4bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 3.8228 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.88 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.24 | 2025 (0.92) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ -4.4216 + 43.0218·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/BDI?indicator= · API docs
