Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Belgium: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Belgium's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.765 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.98 | 2023 (102.5) |
Latest observed-2.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.08 | 1.47 | -5.64 | -2.84 – -1.32 |
| 2028 | -2.45 | 3.71 | -8.6 | -3.82 – -1.07 |
| 2030 | -2.81 | 5.14 | -10.76 | -4.66 – -0.96 |
| 2035 | -3.72 | 7.52 | -14.96 | -6.61 – -0.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.13· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.72typical miss · 1 realized · 26% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed75.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 74.75 | 88.43 | 62.9 | 71.6 – 77.9 |
| 2028 | 73.35 | 97.04 | 52.82 | 66.44 – 80.25 |
| 2030 | 71.94 | 102.53 | 45.44 | 61.82 – 82.07 |
| 2035 | 68.44 | 111.69 | 30.96 | 51.31 – 85.57 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead76.47· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.96typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed725.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 754.6bn | 821bn | 697.1bn | 731.2bn – 778bn |
| 2028 | 827.2bn | 942.2bn | 727.6bn | 766bn – 888.4bn |
| 2030 | 899.9bn | 1T | 771.3bn | 797.7bn – 1T |
| 2035 | 1.1T | 1.3T | 899.6bn | 857.1bn – 1.3T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead806.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±18.1bntypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.95 | 11.52 | -8.21 | -0.82 – 2.73 |
| 2028 | 0.83 | 12 | -10 | -2.27 – 3.93 |
| 2030 | 0.71 | 12 | -10 | -3.31 – 4.73 |
| 2035 | 0.41 | 12 | -10 | -5.32 – 6.14 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.07· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.25typical miss · 1 realized · 36% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.9k | 68.5k | 58k | 60.9k – 64.8k |
| 2028 | 68.2k | 78k | 59.8k | 63.2k – 73.3k |
| 2030 | 73.6k | 86.2k | 62.7k | 65.2k – 82k |
| 2035 | 87k | 104.9k | 71.5k | 69k – 105.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead67.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.9ktypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.12(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.38 | 5.24 | 1.39 | 2.87 – 3.89 |
| 2029 | 2.5 | 5.72 | 0 | 1.59 – 3.42 |
| 2031 | 2.07 | 6.23 | 0 | 0.88 – 3.26 |
| 2036 | 1.73 | 7.61 | 0 | 0 – 3.45 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.25· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed109.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 108.25 | 118 | 97 | 104.89 – 111.61 |
| 2028 | 108.95 | 125.84 | 89.47 | 100.89 – 117.01 |
| 2030 | 109.65 | 131.45 | 84.5 | 97.2 – 122.1 |
| 2035 | 111.4 | 142.23 | 75.83 | 88.29 – 134.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead110.69· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.55typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed77.47(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 76.99 | 91.81 | 62.18 | 73.49 – 80.49 |
| 2028 | 76.04 | 101.7 | 50.38 | 68.46 – 83.61 |
| 2030 | 75.08 | 108.21 | 41.96 | 64.01 – 86.16 |
| 2035 | 72.7 | 119.55 | 25.85 | 53.9 – 91.5 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead78.68· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.4typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.47(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.36 | 10.76 | -5 | 0.46 – 4.26 |
| 2028 | 1.41 | 15.96 | -5 | -1.88 – 4.71 |
| 2030 | 0.46 | 19.24 | -5 | -3.78 – 4.71 |
| 2035 | -1.91 | 24.65 | -5 | -5 – 4.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.77· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.44typical miss · 1 realized · 38% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.06 | 12.94 | -5 | 2.03 – 6.09 |
| 2029 | 3.64 | 19.01 | -5 | 0.05 – 7.22 |
| 2031 | 3.49 | 23.34 | -5 | -1.19 – 8.17 |
| 2036 | 3.41 | 31.48 | -5 | -3.36 – 10.18 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.07· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.91 | 25.17 | 22.83 | 23.17 – 24.65 |
| 2028 | 23.93 | 25.19 | 22.84 | 22.16 – 25.7 |
| 2030 | 23.95 | 25.21 | 22.86 | 21.23 – 26.67 |
| 2035 | 24 | 25.75 | 22.49 | 19.03 – 28.98 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.81· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.44typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.9m | 12.5m | 11.4m | 11.6m – 12.3m |
| 2028 | 12m | 12.6m | 11.5m | 11.1m – 12.9m |
| 2030 | 12.1m | 12.7m | 11.6m | 10.7m – 13.5m |
| 2035 | 12.3m | 12.9m | 11.8m | 9.8m – 14.9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±9.4ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.55 | 10.93 | -7.23 | -0.76 – 1.86 |
| 2028 | 0.38 | 15 | -10 | -1.91 – 2.68 |
| 2030 | 0.21 | 15 | -10 | -2.77 – 3.19 |
| 2035 | -0.22 | 15 | -10 | -4.48 – 4.04 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.75· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.4typical miss · 1 realized · 219% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.9bn | 31.4bn | 16.4bn | 22.3bn – 25.4bn |
| 2028 | 22.8bn | 35.8bn | 9.8bn | 19.7bn – 25.9bn |
| 2030 | 21.8bn | 38.5bn | 5bn | 17.4bn – 26.1bn |
| 2035 | 19.1bn | 42.8bn | 0 | 12.4bn – 25.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.95 | 1.15 | 0.75 | 0.9 – 1 |
| 2028 | 0.86 | 1.18 | 0.54 | 0.76 – 0.96 |
| 2030 | 0.82 | 1.23 | 0.4 | 0.67 – 0.96 |
| 2035 | 0.78 | 1.36 | 0.2 | 0.53 – 1.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.07· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed56.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 59.4bn | 69.2bn | 49.6bn | 56.9bn – 61.9bn |
| 2028 | 67.5bn | 84.5bn | 50.4bn | 61.6bn – 73.3bn |
| 2030 | 75.5bn | 97.5bn | 53.5bn | 66.1bn – 84.9bn |
| 2035 | 95.7bn | 126.8bn | 64.6bn | 75.6bn – 115.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead59bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.91 | 6.78 | 5.04 | 5.68 – 6.14 |
| 2028 | 5.92 | 7.43 | 4.4 | 5.4 – 6.43 |
| 2030 | 5.93 | 7.88 | 3.97 | 5.15 – 6.7 |
| 2035 | 5.95 | 8.71 | 3.18 | 4.57 – 7.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.19· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.29typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/BEL · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 1.14 | 2024 (103.9) |
| 2028 | 1.59 | 2025 (107.9) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -10.7637 + 0.1145·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.712 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 578.8bn | 2023 (5.55) |
| 2027 | 566.1bn | 2024 (5.7) |
| 2028 | 548.9bn | 2025 (5.91) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 1041261908576.9882 + -83363927263.7947·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.666 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.63 | 2025 (725.5bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 9.9148 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/BEL?indicator= · API docs
