Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Benin: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Benin's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.635 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.91 | 2025 (57.3) |
Latest observed-5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -5.42 | -1.73 | -9.12 | -6.26 – -4.58 |
| 2029 | -6.27 | 0.12 | -12.67 | -7.88 – -4.67 |
| 2031 | -7.12 | 1.14 | -15.37 | -9.37 – -4.86 |
| 2036 | -9.24 | 2.44 | -20.91 | -13.1 – -5.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-5.14· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.56 | 23.18 | 8.96 | 14.22 – 16.9 |
| 2028 | 12.58 | 25.78 | 1.14 | 10.09 – 15.07 |
| 2030 | 9.6 | 26.64 | 0 | 6.4 – 12.8 |
| 2035 | 2.15 | 26.24 | 0 | 0 – 5.93 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.1· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.36typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 29.7bn | 32bn | 27.7bn | 28.8bn – 30.6bn |
| 2029 | 34.4bn | 38.4bn | 31bn | 31.9bn – 37bn |
| 2031 | 39.1bn | 44.3bn | 34.7bn | 34.7bn – 43.6bn |
| 2036 | 51bn | 58.2bn | 44.7bn | 40.4bn – 61.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.93 | 8.7 | 5.39 | 6.52 – 7.33 |
| 2029 | 6.77 | 9.84 | 4.11 | 5.93 – 7.61 |
| 2031 | 6.61 | 10.58 | 3.18 | 5.42 – 7.8 |
| 2036 | 6.23 | 11.84 | 1.36 | 4.29 – 8.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.96· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.9k | 2k | 1.8k | 1.8k – 2k |
| 2029 | 2.1k | 2.4k | 1.9k | 2k – 2.3k |
| 2031 | 2.4k | 2.7k | 2.1k | 2.1k – 2.7k |
| 2036 | 3k | 3.4k | 2.6k | 2.4k – 3.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.9k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 59.78 | 66.42 | 52.12 | 57.8 – 61.76 |
| 2029 | 64.94 | 76.45 | 51.67 | 60.06 – 69.83 |
| 2031 | 70.11 | 84.96 | 52.97 | 62.15 – 78.07 |
| 2036 | 83.01 | 104.02 | 58.77 | 65.79 – 100.23 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead58.72· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.08 | 24.82 | 11.33 | 16.76 – 19.4 |
| 2028 | 14.1 | 25.78 | 2.42 | 11.64 – 16.57 |
| 2030 | 10.13 | 25.21 | 0 | 7.01 – 13.25 |
| 2035 | 0.19 | 21.52 | 0 | 0 – 3.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.89· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.24typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 0.15 | 1.89 – 2.9 |
| 2029 | 3.65 | 7.29 | -0.25 | 2.67 – 4.64 |
| 2031 | 4.91 | 9.61 | -0.12 | 3.48 – 6.35 |
| 2036 | 8.06 | 14.7 | 0.94 | 5.29 – 10.82 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.15· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.63 | 39.77 | 33.91 | 35.5 – 37.77 |
| 2028 | 39.78 | 45.22 | 35.07 | 36.84 – 42.72 |
| 2030 | 42.92 | 49.94 | 36.84 | 38.05 – 47.8 |
| 2035 | 50.79 | 60.71 | 42.18 | 40.25 – 61.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead36.46· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.78typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 15.3m | 16m | 14.6m | 14.8m – 15.8m |
| 2029 | 15.9m | 16.6m | 15.2m | 14.7m – 17.1m |
| 2031 | 16.5m | 17.3m | 15.8m | 14.6m – 18.3m |
| 2036 | 18m | 18.8m | 17.2m | 14.2m – 21.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.7m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.32 | 7.23 | 3.88 | 4.99 – 5.64 |
| 2028 | 6.55 | 9.87 | 4.06 | 5.82 – 7.28 |
| 2030 | 7.78 | 12.07 | 4.57 | 6.63 – 8.94 |
| 2035 | 10.87 | 15 | 6.33 | 8.37 – 13.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.09· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.15typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.58 | 1.89 | 1.27 | 1.51 – 1.65 |
| 2028 | 1.57 | 2.1 | 1.03 | 1.41 – 1.72 |
| 2030 | 1.55 | 2.24 | 0.86 | 1.32 – 1.78 |
| 2035 | 1.51 | 2.49 | 0.53 | 1.12 – 1.9 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.59· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/BEN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 6.9 | 2026 (57.2) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 2.4343 + 0.078·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.574 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 56.81 | 2024 (21.5bn) |
| 2028 | 62.27 | 2025 (24.6bn) |
| 2029 | 67.97 | 2026 (27.8bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 18.773 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.568 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 17.2bn | 2026 (57.2) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 4008892590.3836 + 229946232.8349·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.536 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.01 | 2023 (19.7bn) |
| 2027 | 2.1 | 2024 (21.5bn) |
| 2028 | 2.26 | 2025 (24.6bn) |
| 2029 | 2.43 | 2026 (27.8bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 0.9947 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/BEN?indicator= · API docs
