Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Benin: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Benin's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.613 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.18 | 2024 (60.5) |
Latest observed-5.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.18 | -2.5 | -9.85 | -7.02 – -5.33 |
| 2028 | -7.13 | -0.75 | -13.5 | -8.77 – -5.48 |
| 2030 | -8.08 | 0.15 | -16.3 | -10.4 – -5.75 |
| 2035 | -10.45 | 1.19 | -22.09 | -14.5 – -6.4 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-5.8· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.58typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.56 | 23.18 | 8.96 | 14.22 – 16.9 |
| 2028 | 12.58 | 25.78 | 1.14 | 10.09 – 15.07 |
| 2030 | 9.6 | 26.64 | 0 | 6.4 – 12.8 |
| 2035 | 2.15 | 26.24 | 0 | 0 – 5.93 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.1· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.36typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.1bn | 28.4bn | 24.1bn | 25.3bn – 27bn |
| 2028 | 30.1bn | 34.1bn | 26.6bn | 27.8bn – 32.3bn |
| 2030 | 34bn | 39.1bn | 29.5bn | 30.1bn – 37.9bn |
| 2035 | 43.8bn | 51.1bn | 37.5bn | 34.7bn – 52.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.3bntypical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.76 | 11.7 | 6.21 | 8.13 – 9.39 |
| 2028 | 10.31 | 12 | 5.9 | 8.96 – 11.65 |
| 2030 | 11.85 | 12 | 6.16 | 9.81 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | 3.95 | 8.53 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.96· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.76typical miss · 1 realized · 25% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.7k | 1.9k | 1.6k | 1.7k – 1.8k |
| 2028 | 1.9k | 2.2k | 1.7k | 1.8k – 2.1k |
| 2030 | 2.2k | 2.5k | 1.8k | 1.9k – 2.4k |
| 2035 | 2.7k | 3.2k | 2.2k | 2.1k – 3.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.9k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±59.46typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed58.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.5 | 68.5 | 55.58 | 60.56 – 64.44 |
| 2028 | 68.9 | 79.29 | 56.92 | 63.81 – 74 |
| 2030 | 75.31 | 88.72 | 59.83 | 66.76 – 83.86 |
| 2035 | 91.31 | 110.28 | 69.43 | 72.37 – 110.25 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead59.61· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.4typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.08 | 24.82 | 11.33 | 16.76 – 19.4 |
| 2028 | 14.1 | 25.78 | 2.42 | 11.64 – 16.57 |
| 2030 | 10.13 | 25.21 | 0 | 7.01 – 13.25 |
| 2035 | 0.19 | 21.52 | 0 | 0 – 3.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.89· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.24typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.19 | 3.32 | -1.09 | 0.7 – 1.68 |
| 2028 | 1.11 | 4.79 | -2.84 | 0.24 – 1.98 |
| 2030 | 1.02 | 5.78 | -4.07 | -0.11 – 2.16 |
| 2035 | 0.81 | 7.54 | -5 | -0.84 – 2.47 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.64· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.39typical miss · 1 realized · 49% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.63 | 39.77 | 33.91 | 35.5 – 37.77 |
| 2028 | 39.78 | 45.22 | 35.07 | 36.84 – 42.72 |
| 2030 | 42.92 | 49.94 | 36.84 | 38.05 – 47.8 |
| 2035 | 50.79 | 60.71 | 42.18 | 40.25 – 61.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead36.46· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.78typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.7m | 15.4m | 14.1m | 14.3m – 15.2m |
| 2028 | 15.1m | 15.8m | 14.4m | 14m – 16.2m |
| 2030 | 15.5m | 16.2m | 14.8m | 13.7m – 17.3m |
| 2035 | 16.5m | 17.2m | 15.7m | 13m – 19.9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.6m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±511.1ktypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.32 | 7.23 | 3.88 | 4.99 – 5.64 |
| 2028 | 6.55 | 9.87 | 4.06 | 5.82 – 7.28 |
| 2030 | 7.78 | 12.07 | 4.57 | 6.63 – 8.94 |
| 2035 | 10.87 | 15 | 6.33 | 8.37 – 13.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.09· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.15typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.58 | 1.89 | 1.27 | 1.51 – 1.65 |
| 2028 | 1.57 | 2.1 | 1.03 | 1.41 – 1.72 |
| 2030 | 1.55 | 2.24 | 0.86 | 1.32 – 1.78 |
| 2035 | 1.51 | 2.49 | 0.53 | 1.12 – 1.9 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.59· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/BEN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 7.09 | 2025 (59.3) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 2.4135 + 0.0789·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.536 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.01 | 2023 (19.7bn) |
| 2027 | 2.1 | 2024 (21.5bn) |
| 2028 | 2.26 | 2025 (24.6bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 0.9947 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.536 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50.23 | 2025 (8.07) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 10.5586 + 4.9133·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.512 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.2bn | 2025 (59.3) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 5009273824.106 + 188469080.6749·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/BEN?indicator= · API docs
