Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Bangladesh: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Bangladesh's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.738 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 126.6bn | 2023 (3.35) |
Latest observed-0.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.17 | 3.09 | -2.75 | -0.44 – 0.78 |
| 2028 | 0.51 | 5.57 | -4.55 | -0.57 – 1.59 |
| 2030 | 0.85 | 7.39 | -5.69 | -0.56 – 2.27 |
| 2035 | 1.7 | 10.95 | -7.54 | -0.46 – 3.86 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.73· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.47typical miss · 1 realized · 157% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.95 | 14.47 | 7.91 | 10.28 – 11.63 |
| 2028 | 10.63 | 16.71 | 5.35 | 9.25 – 12.01 |
| 2030 | 10.3 | 18.16 | 3.49 | 8.35 – 12.25 |
| 2035 | 9.48 | 20.6 | 0 | 6.38 – 12.59 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.05· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.83typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed456.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 461.5bn | 506.6bn | 422.4bn | 447.2bn – 475.8bn |
| 2028 | 477.6bn | 555.8bn | 409.8bn | 442.2bn – 512.9bn |
| 2030 | 493.7bn | 594.6bn | 406.2bn | 437.6bn – 549.7bn |
| 2035 | 533.9bn | 676.7bn | 410.1bn | 423.1bn – 644.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead524.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±44.9bntypical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.78 | 6.64 | -0.57 | 2.09 – 3.46 |
| 2028 | 1.16 | 7.85 | -4.64 | -0.01 – 2.33 |
| 2030 | -0.46 | 8.18 | -7.94 | -1.98 – 1.06 |
| 2035 | -4.5 | 7.71 | -10 | -7.26 – -1.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.14· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.82typical miss · 1 realized · 23% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.6k | 2.9k | 2.4k | 2.5k – 2.7k |
| 2028 | 2.6k | 3.1k | 2.2k | 2.5k – 2.8k |
| 2030 | 2.7k | 3.3k | 2.2k | 2.4k – 3k |
| 2035 | 2.8k | 3.7k | 2k | 2.2k – 3.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±279.76typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.74 | 45.73 | 41.44 | 42.38 – 45.09 |
| 2028 | 47.22 | 49.36 | 44.74 | 43.72 – 50.71 |
| 2030 | 50.69 | 53.33 | 47.66 | 44.94 – 56.45 |
| 2035 | 59.39 | 63.11 | 55.09 | 47.07 – 71.71 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead41.57· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.24typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.57 | 21.01 | 12.14 | 15.63 – 17.52 |
| 2028 | 16.05 | 23.73 | 8.37 | 14.1 – 17.99 |
| 2030 | 15.52 | 25.44 | 5.61 | 12.76 – 18.28 |
| 2035 | 14.21 | 28.23 | 0.19 | 9.79 – 18.63 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.32· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.61typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.96 | 10.94 | 4.77 | 7.17 – 8.75 |
| 2028 | 5.59 | 10.74 | 0.06 | 4.17 – 7 |
| 2030 | 3.21 | 9.87 | -3.92 | 1.48 – 4.94 |
| 2035 | -2.73 | 6.69 | -5 | -5 – -0.21 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.89· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.74typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.96 | 29.98 | 26.2 | 27.09 – 28.82 |
| 2028 | 26.44 | 29.95 | 23.41 | 24.49 – 28.4 |
| 2030 | 24.93 | 29.46 | 21.01 | 22.1 – 27.76 |
| 2035 | 21.15 | 27.55 | 15.6 | 16.76 – 25.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.1· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.06typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed175.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 175.2m | 183.4m | 167.5m | 169.7m – 180.6m |
| 2028 | 177.5m | 185.9m | 169.7m | 164.4m – 190.6m |
| 2030 | 179.8m | 188.3m | 172m | 159.4m – 200.3m |
| 2035 | 185.7m | 194.5m | 177.5m | 147.2m – 224.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead176.9m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±253.6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.08 | 6.88 | -1.52 | 1.45 – 2.71 |
| 2028 | 1.81 | 10.12 | -4.43 | 0.68 – 2.93 |
| 2030 | 1.53 | 12.26 | -6.52 | 0.07 – 2.99 |
| 2035 | 0.84 | 15 | -10 | -1.21 – 2.9 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.81· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.51typical miss · 1 realized · 215% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.9bn | 40.6bn | 9.1bn | 22bn – 27.7bn |
| 2028 | 20.9bn | 48.1bn | 0 | 15.7bn – 26bn |
| 2030 | 16.9bn | 52.1bn | 0 | 10.1bn – 23.6bn |
| 2035 | 6.8bn | 56.6bn | 0 | 0 – 15.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 1.5 | 3.89 – 4.91 |
| 2028 | 4.98 | 10.01 | 0 | 3.97 – 5.99 |
| 2030 | 5.27 | 11.76 | 0 | 3.85 – 6.68 |
| 2035 | 5.49 | 14.67 | 0 | 3.21 – 7.78 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.32· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.1bn | 43.1bn | 11.1bn | 24.2bn – 30bn |
| 2028 | 23.7bn | 51.3bn | 0 | 18.3bn – 29bn |
| 2030 | 20.2bn | 56bn | 0 | 13.2bn – 27.3bn |
| 2035 | 11.7bn | 62.2bn | 0 | 2.1bn – 21.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.33 | 4.5 | 2.17 | 3.1 – 3.57 |
| 2028 | 2.45 | 4.47 | 0.43 | 2.02 – 2.88 |
| 2030 | 1.56 | 4.17 | 0 | 1.04 – 2.09 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.69 | 0 | 0 – 0.73 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.89· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/BGD · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 159.8bn | 2024 (3.64) |
| 2028 | 176.5bn | 2025 (3.78) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -266382726286.6058 + 117239223377.5999·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.711 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38.36 | 2023 (-2.6) |
| 2027 | 35.88 | 2024 (-1.4) |
| 2028 | 32.99 | 2025 (0) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 32.9866 + -2.0683·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.668 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.91 | 2023 (5.78) |
| 2027 | 3.21 | 2024 (4.22) |
| 2028 | 2.88 | 2025 (3.49) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 1.2995 + 0.4519·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.645 over 20 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.9 | 2023 (39.7) |
| 2027 | 10.34 | 2024 (41) |
| 2028 | 10.69 | 2025 (42) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -3.6931 + 0.3424·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.582 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.28 | 2023 (-2.6) |
| 2027 | 4.94 | 2024 (-1.4) |
| 2028 | 5.7 | 2025 (0) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 5.7021 + 0.546·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/BGD?indicator= · API docs
