Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Bahamas, The: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Bahamas, The's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.824 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.9bn | 2023 (78) |
Latest observed-9.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.89 | 10.03 | -25.82 | -11.68 – -4.11 |
| 2028 | -7.08 | 23.97 | -30 | -13.75 – -0.4 |
| 2030 | -6.26 | 30 | -30 | -14.94 – 2.42 |
| 2035 | -4.22 | 30 | -30 | -16.46 – 8.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-9.48· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.41typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.78(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 38.57 | 51.16 | 27.67 | 36.16 – 40.99 |
| 2027 | 40.16 | 61.95 | 21.27 | 35.12 – 45.2 |
| 2029 | 41.74 | 69.87 | 17.36 | 34.38 – 49.1 |
| 2034 | 45.69 | 85.48 | 11.21 | 32.7 – 58.69 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead36.82· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.8bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.9bn | 21.1bn | 15.2bn | 17.3bn – 18.6bn |
| 2028 | 19.8bn | 25.3bn | 15bn | 18.2bn – 21.4bn |
| 2030 | 21.6bn | 28.8bn | 15.4bn | 19bn – 24.2bn |
| 2035 | 26.2bn | 36.3bn | 17.4bn | 20.8bn – 31.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±344.6mtypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.38(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.74 | 12 | -10 | -1.22 – 10.7 |
| 2028 | 6.71 | 12 | -10 | -3.8 – 12 |
| 2030 | 8.67 | 12 | -10 | -5.17 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -8.52 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.33· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.24typical miss · 1 realized · 90% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.5k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.2k | 51.2k | 36.3k | 41.6k – 44.8k |
| 2028 | 47k | 60.8k | 35.1k | 43.1k – 50.9k |
| 2030 | 50.9k | 68.7k | 35.4k | 44.7k – 57.1k |
| 2035 | 60.4k | 85.7k | 38.6k | 47.8k – 73.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead45.5k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±659.47typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed70.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 74.66 | 89.64 | 57.38 | 71.16 – 78.16 |
| 2028 | 80.57 | 106.52 | 50.64 | 72.72 – 88.43 |
| 2030 | 86.49 | 119.98 | 47.85 | 74.42 – 98.56 |
| 2035 | 101.28 | 148.65 | 46.63 | 77.79 – 124.77 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead69.43· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.46typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.46(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 42.24 | 49.23 | 35.26 | 40.5 – 43.99 |
| 2027 | 43.82 | 55.92 | 31.72 | 39.86 – 47.77 |
| 2029 | 45.39 | 61.01 | 29.77 | 39.37 – 51.41 |
| 2034 | 49.32 | 71.41 | 27.23 | 38.04 – 60.59 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead42· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.67 | 6.58 | -3.6 | 0.55 – 2.78 |
| 2028 | 2.65 | 11.15 | -5 | 0.63 – 4.66 |
| 2030 | 3.63 | 14.61 | -5 | 0.9 – 6.35 |
| 2035 | 6.07 | 21.61 | -5 | 1.66 – 10.49 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.17· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.13typical miss · 1 realized · 56% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.75(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25.86 | 30.04 | 22.24 | 24.85 – 26.87 |
| 2027 | 26.35 | 33.58 | 20.08 | 24.05 – 28.65 |
| 2029 | 26.83 | 36.17 | 18.74 | 23.35 – 30.32 |
| 2034 | 28.05 | 41.25 | 16.61 | 21.68 – 34.42 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.8· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed403k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 402.6k | 421.6k | 384.9k | 390.1k – 415.1k |
| 2028 | 404.5k | 423.6k | 386.8k | 374.6k – 434.4k |
| 2030 | 406.4k | 425.6k | 388.6k | 360.3k – 452.6k |
| 2035 | 411.2k | 430.7k | 393.2k | 325.9k – 496.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead419.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±14.4ktypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.02(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.63 | 15 | -10 | -1.61 – 4.86 |
| 2027 | -0.88 | 15 | -10 | -6.48 – 4.72 |
| 2029 | -3.39 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 4.05 |
| 2034 | -9.66 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 2.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.22· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.9bn | 3.3bn | 2.5bn | 2.8bn – 3bn |
| 2028 | 3.1bn | 3.9bn | 2.4bn | 2.9bn – 3.4bn |
| 2030 | 3.4bn | 4.3bn | 2.4bn | 2.9bn – 3.8bn |
| 2035 | 3.9bn | 5.3bn | 2.6bn | 3.1bn – 4.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±100.5mtypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.95(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.96 | 6.84 | 1.08 | 3.46 – 4.46 |
| 2027 | 3.97 | 8.96 | 0 | 3.01 – 4.92 |
| 2029 | 3.97 | 10.41 | 0 | 2.67 – 5.27 |
| 2034 | 3.97 | 13.09 | 0 | 1.94 – 6 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.97· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.9bn | 3.3bn | 2.5bn | 2.8bn – 3bn |
| 2028 | 3.1bn | 3.9bn | 2.4bn | 2.9bn – 3.4bn |
| 2030 | 3.4bn | 4.3bn | 2.4bn | 2.9bn – 3.8bn |
| 2035 | 3.9bn | 5.3bn | 2.6bn | 3.1bn – 4.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±100.5mtypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.61 | 10.18 | 7.05 | 8.24 – 8.99 |
| 2028 | 7.43 | 10.14 | 4.71 | 6.66 – 8.2 |
| 2030 | 6.24 | 9.75 | 2.74 | 5.21 – 7.28 |
| 2035 | 3.28 | 8.24 | 0 | 2 – 4.57 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.17· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.69typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/BHS · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 15.3bn | 2024 (73) |
| 2028 | 15.1bn | 2025 (71.7) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 5169781866.3164 + 138195106.6323·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.799 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 73 | 2023 (15.3bn) |
| 2027 | 75.82 | 2024 (15.8bn) |
| 2028 | 82.78 | 2025 (17.2bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ -3.7138 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.701 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -14.56 | 2023 (15.3bn) |
| 2027 | -15.16 | 2024 (15.8bn) |
| 2028 | -16.65 | 2025 (17.2bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 1.7497 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.65 over 59 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.64 | 2025 (17.2bn) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 6.3296 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/BHS?indicator= · API docs
