Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Bahamas, The: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2027, 2029, 2031, 2034, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Bahamas, The's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.841 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 15.4bn | 2024 (73.8) |
Latest observed-9.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -8.5 | 8.57 | -25.56 | -12.11 – -4.88 |
| 2029 | -7.29 | 22.26 | -30 | -13.67 – -0.91 |
| 2031 | -6.08 | 30 | -30 | -14.36 – 2.19 |
| 2036 | -3.06 | 30 | -30 | -14.57 – 8.44 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-8.7· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.78(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 38.57 | 51.16 | 27.67 | 36.16 – 40.99 |
| 2027 | 40.16 | 61.95 | 21.27 | 35.12 – 45.2 |
| 2029 | 41.74 | 69.87 | 17.36 | 34.38 – 49.1 |
| 2034 | 45.69 | 85.48 | 11.21 | 32.7 – 58.69 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead36.82· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.8bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 17.6bn | 20.7bn | 14.8bn | 16.9bn – 18.2bn |
| 2029 | 19bn | 24.4bn | 14.2bn | 17.4bn – 20.5bn |
| 2031 | 20.3bn | 27.4bn | 14.2bn | 17.9bn – 22.8bn |
| 2036 | 23.8bn | 33.7bn | 15.2bn | 18.8bn – 28.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.38(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.86 | 8.09 | -5.4 | -0.36 – 2.08 |
| 2029 | -2.13 | 10.39 | -10 | -4.32 – 0.06 |
| 2031 | -5.12 | 11.04 | -10 | -8.23 – -2.02 |
| 2036 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -4.59 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.21· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.5k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 41.8k | 49.7k | 34.9k | 40.2k – 43.4k |
| 2029 | 44.3k | 58k | 32.4k | 40.5k – 48.1k |
| 2031 | 46.8k | 64.5k | 31.4k | 40.9k – 52.6k |
| 2036 | 53k | 78.1k | 31.3k | 41.5k – 64.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead41.8k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed71.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 73.85 | 88.77 | 56.64 | 70.38 – 77.33 |
| 2029 | 77.76 | 103.6 | 47.95 | 70.06 – 85.47 |
| 2031 | 81.67 | 115.03 | 43.18 | 70.01 – 93.34 |
| 2036 | 91.45 | 138.62 | 37.02 | 69.56 – 113.33 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead71.39· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.46(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 42.24 | 49.23 | 35.26 | 40.5 – 43.99 |
| 2027 | 43.82 | 55.92 | 31.72 | 39.86 – 47.77 |
| 2029 | 45.39 | 61.01 | 29.77 | 39.37 – 51.41 |
| 2034 | 49.32 | 71.41 | 27.23 | 38.04 – 60.59 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead42· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.41(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.07 | 6.28 | -2.44 | 1.1 – 3.03 |
| 2029 | 3.47 | 10.76 | -4.34 | 1.69 – 5.25 |
| 2031 | 4.87 | 14.28 | -5 | 2.39 – 7.34 |
| 2036 | 8.37 | 21.68 | -5 | 4.08 – 12.66 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.43· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.75(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25.86 | 30.04 | 22.24 | 24.85 – 26.87 |
| 2027 | 26.35 | 33.58 | 20.08 | 24.05 – 28.65 |
| 2029 | 26.83 | 36.17 | 18.74 | 23.35 – 30.32 |
| 2034 | 28.05 | 41.25 | 16.61 | 21.68 – 34.42 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.8· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed403k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 417.8k | 437.5k | 399.4k | 404.8k – 430.7k |
| 2029 | 433.1k | 453.6k | 414.1k | 401.1k – 465.2k |
| 2031 | 448.5k | 469.7k | 428.8k | 397.6k – 499.4k |
| 2036 | 486.9k | 510.4k | 465.1k | 385.9k – 587.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead419.1k· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.02(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.63 | 15 | -10 | -1.61 – 4.86 |
| 2027 | -0.88 | 15 | -10 | -6.48 – 4.72 |
| 2029 | -3.39 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 4.05 |
| 2034 | -9.66 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 2.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.22· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.7bn | 3.2bn | 2.2bn | 2.6bn – 2.8bn |
| 2027 | 2.9bn | 3.8bn | 2.1bn | 2.7bn – 3.2bn |
| 2029 | 3.2bn | 4.2bn | 2.1bn | 2.7bn – 3.6bn |
| 2034 | 3.7bn | 5.2bn | 2.2bn | 2.9bn – 4.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.95(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.96 | 6.84 | 1.08 | 3.46 – 4.46 |
| 2027 | 3.97 | 8.96 | 0 | 3.01 – 4.92 |
| 2029 | 3.97 | 10.41 | 0 | 2.67 – 5.27 |
| 2034 | 3.97 | 13.09 | 0 | 1.94 – 6 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.97· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.7bn | 3.2bn | 2.2bn | 2.6bn – 2.8bn |
| 2027 | 2.9bn | 3.8bn | 2.1bn | 2.7bn – 3.2bn |
| 2029 | 3.2bn | 4.2bn | 2.1bn | 2.7bn – 3.6bn |
| 2034 | 3.7bn | 5.2bn | 2.2bn | 2.9bn – 4.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.17 | 10.78 | 7.56 | 8.78 – 9.56 |
| 2029 | 8.7 | 11.49 | 5.92 | 7.86 – 9.55 |
| 2031 | 8.24 | 11.84 | 4.64 | 7.03 – 9.45 |
| 2036 | 7.08 | 12.17 | 1.99 | 5.17 – 8.99 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.29· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/BHS · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 15.4bn | 2025 (73.8) |
| 2029 | 15.1bn | 2026 (71.9) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 5159059092.6283 + 138751738.4361·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.813 over 37 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 76 | 2024 (15.8bn) |
| 2028 | 79.41 | 2025 (16.5bn) |
| 2029 | 82.1 | 2026 (17bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ -3.7914 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.699 over 47 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -14.72 | 2024 (15.8bn) |
| 2028 | -15.41 | 2025 (16.5bn) |
| 2029 | -15.96 | 2026 (17bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 1.5552 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.653 over 60 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.43 | 2026 (17bn) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 6.2894 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/BHS?indicator= · API docs
