Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Bosnia and Herzegovina's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.767 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.21 | 2024 (-3.5) |
Latest observed-4.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.15 | -0.23 | -6.07 | -3.8 – -2.5 |
| 2028 | -3.25 | 1.81 | -8.32 | -4.44 – -2.06 |
| 2030 | -3.36 | 3.18 | -9.89 | -4.96 – -1.75 |
| 2035 | -3.61 | 5.63 | -12.86 | -6.08 – -1.15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-5.18· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.75typical miss · 1 realized · 36% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.36 | 51.42 | 32.63 | 39.26 – 43.46 |
| 2028 | 42.07 | 59.5 | 26.96 | 37.56 – 46.58 |
| 2030 | 42.78 | 65.29 | 23.28 | 36.15 – 49.42 |
| 2035 | 44.57 | 76.39 | 16.98 | 32.89 – 56.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead41.76· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.43typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.5bn | 37.4bn | 31.9bn | 33.4bn – 35.5bn |
| 2028 | 39.1bn | 44.2bn | 34.6bn | 36.2bn – 42bn |
| 2030 | 43.7bn | 50.3bn | 38bn | 38.7bn – 48.7bn |
| 2035 | 55.3bn | 64.6bn | 47.2bn | 43.8bn – 66.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead39.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.8bntypical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.32 | 12 | -6.62 | 0.56 – 4.08 |
| 2028 | 2.64 | 12 | -10 | -0.46 – 5.75 |
| 2030 | 2.96 | 12 | -10 | -1.12 – 7.05 |
| 2035 | 3.77 | 12 | -10 | -2.27 – 9.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.78· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.02typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11k | 11.9k | 10.2k | 10.7k – 11.3k |
| 2028 | 12.6k | 14.2k | 11.2k | 11.7k – 13.5k |
| 2030 | 14.2k | 16.2k | 12.4k | 12.6k – 15.8k |
| 2035 | 18.1k | 21k | 15.6k | 14.4k – 21.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.5k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±159.49typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.31 | 32.64 | 21.17 | 26.05 – 28.57 |
| 2028 | 24.33 | 33.56 | 13.69 | 21.75 – 26.92 |
| 2030 | 21.35 | 33.26 | 7.62 | 17.81 – 24.89 |
| 2035 | 13.91 | 30.75 | 0 | 9.09 – 18.73 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead30.93· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.09typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.27 | 64.39 | 44.15 | 51.86 – 56.69 |
| 2028 | 54.58 | 72.11 | 37.05 | 49.28 – 59.88 |
| 2030 | 54.89 | 77.52 | 32.26 | 47.03 – 62.74 |
| 2035 | 55.66 | 87.66 | 23.65 | 41.85 – 69.46 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead54.01· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.29typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4 | 19.36 | -5 | 2.22 – 8.58 |
| 2028 | 8.6 | 32.78 | -5 | 2.83 – 14.37 |
| 2030 | 11.8 | 43.01 | -5 | 3.94 – 19.66 |
| 2035 | 19.8 | 50 | -5 | 6.85 – 32.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.06· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.4typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.37(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24.88 | 26.62 | 23.37 | 24.11 – 25.65 |
| 2027 | 26.1 | 29.12 | 23.48 | 24.17 – 28.03 |
| 2029 | 27.32 | 31.22 | 23.94 | 24.22 – 30.42 |
| 2034 | 30.38 | 35.89 | 25.6 | 24.07 – 36.68 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.54· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.1m | 3.3m | 3m | 3m – 3.2m |
| 2028 | 3.1m | 3.3m | 3m | 2.9m – 3.4m |
| 2030 | 3.1m | 3.2m | 3m | 2.7m – 3.4m |
| 2035 | 3m | 3.2m | 2.9m | 2.4m – 3.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.4m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±289ktypical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.43 | 14.17 | -2.88 | 3.14 – 5.72 |
| 2028 | 6.22 | 15 | -6.44 | 3.81 – 8.62 |
| 2030 | 8 | 15 | -8.33 | 4.64 – 11.37 |
| 2035 | 12.47 | 15 | -10 | 6.63 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.07· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.56typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9.2bn | 10.4bn | 8.1bn | 8.9bn – 9.6bn |
| 2027 | 9.6bn | 11.6bn | 7.6bn | 8.8bn – 10.3bn |
| 2029 | 9.9bn | 12.5bn | 7.3bn | 8.7bn – 11.1bn |
| 2034 | 10.8bn | 14.5bn | 7.1bn | 8.5bn – 13.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.47(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6.68 | 9.22 | 4.14 | 6.18 – 7.18 |
| 2027 | 6.93 | 11.33 | 2.53 | 5.92 – 7.93 |
| 2029 | 7.05 | 12.73 | 1.37 | 5.61 – 8.48 |
| 2034 | 7.14 | 15.18 | 0 | 4.77 – 9.52 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.35· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.4bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9.5bn | 10.7bn | 8.3bn | 9.2bn – 9.9bn |
| 2027 | 9.9bn | 12bn | 7.9bn | 9.1bn – 10.7bn |
| 2029 | 10.3bn | 13bn | 7.7bn | 9.1bn – 11.6bn |
| 2034 | 11.3bn | 15.1bn | 7.5bn | 8.9bn – 13.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.93 | 11.96 | 7.9 | 9.46 – 10.4 |
| 2028 | 7.71 | 11.23 | 4.2 | 6.81 – 8.62 |
| 2030 | 5.5 | 10.04 | 0.96 | 4.36 – 6.63 |
| 2035 | 0 | 6.42 | 0 | 0 – 1.14 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.03· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.27typical miss · 1 realized · 19% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/BIH · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 17.79 | 2025 (-3.1) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 14.5874 + -1.0347·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.712 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.02 | 2024 (29.7bn) |
| 2027 | 1.44 | 2025 (32.6bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -15.1116 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.623 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.3bn | 2025 (-3.1) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 24101896968.1562 + 899002500.9979·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.503 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.4 | 2024 (29.7bn) |
| 2027 | -8.53 | 2025 (32.6bn) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 15.7893 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/BIH?indicator= · API docs
