Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Belarus: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Belarus's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.868 over 22 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49.78 | 2023 (72.5bn) |
Latest observed-3.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.18 | 2.96 | -7.32 | -3.26 – -1.1 |
| 2028 | -2.74 | 6.16 | -11.64 | -4.69 – -0.79 |
| 2030 | -3.3 | 8.19 | -14.8 | -5.91 – -0.7 |
| 2035 | -4.71 | 11.54 | -20.96 | -8.78 – -0.64 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.52· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.02typical miss · 1 realized · 32% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 53.77 | 66.34 | 42.87 | 51.11 – 56.43 |
| 2028 | 51.15 | 72.93 | 32.28 | 45.58 – 56.72 |
| 2030 | 48.53 | 76.64 | 24.17 | 40.63 – 56.43 |
| 2035 | 41.98 | 81.74 | 7.52 | 29.58 – 54.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead54.78· skill-weighted across models
Track record±9.62typical miss · 1 realized · 17% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed93.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 97.6bn | 109.2bn | 87.6bn | 94.6bn – 100.6bn |
| 2028 | 108.7bn | 128.8bn | 91.3bn | 100.6bn – 116.7bn |
| 2030 | 119.7bn | 145.7bn | 97.3bn | 106.1bn – 133.3bn |
| 2035 | 147.4bn | 184bn | 115.6bn | 116.8bn – 177.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead113.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±10.5bntypical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.68 | 12 | -9.15 | -1.23 – 2.59 |
| 2028 | -0.54 | 12 | -10 | -3.86 – 2.78 |
| 2030 | -1.77 | 12 | -10 | -6.13 – 2.6 |
| 2035 | -4.82 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 1.92 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.08· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.22typical miss · 1 realized · 64% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.8k | 12k | 9.7k | 10.4k – 11.1k |
| 2028 | 12k | 14.3k | 10.1k | 11.2k – 12.9k |
| 2030 | 13.3k | 16.2k | 10.9k | 11.8k – 14.8k |
| 2035 | 16.5k | 20.6k | 13.1k | 13.1k – 20k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.6k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.23 | 36.92 | 20.35 | 27.57 – 30.88 |
| 2028 | 25.08 | 38.41 | 9.7 | 21.82 – 28.33 |
| 2030 | 20.93 | 38.14 | 1.07 | 16.61 – 25.25 |
| 2035 | 10.56 | 34.9 | 0 | 5.13 – 15.99 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.38· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.87typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56.17 | 69.22 | 43.12 | 53.27 – 59.07 |
| 2028 | 54.45 | 77.05 | 31.86 | 48.38 – 60.53 |
| 2030 | 52.74 | 81.92 | 23.56 | 44.05 – 61.42 |
| 2035 | 48.45 | 89.71 | 7.19 | 34.38 – 62.52 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead55.81· skill-weighted across models
Track record±9.42typical miss · 1 realized · 17% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.07 | 18.33 | -4.98 | 4.47 – 9.68 |
| 2028 | 8.21 | 27.7 | -5 | 3.5 – 12.93 |
| 2030 | 9.35 | 34.51 | -5 | 3.02 – 15.68 |
| 2035 | 12.2 | 47.78 | -5 | 2.36 – 22.04 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.16· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.97typical miss · 1 realized · 39% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.79 | 30.41 | 21.79 | 24.72 – 26.86 |
| 2028 | 27.36 | 35.35 | 20.42 | 24.9 – 29.81 |
| 2030 | 28.92 | 39.25 | 19.97 | 25.13 – 32.71 |
| 2035 | 32.83 | 47.44 | 20.18 | 25.49 – 40.17 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.95· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.21typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.1m | 9.5m | 8.7m | 8.8m – 9.4m |
| 2028 | 9m | 9.5m | 8.7m | 8.4m – 9.7m |
| 2030 | 9m | 9.4m | 8.6m | 8m – 10m |
| 2035 | 8.9m | 9.3m | 8.5m | 7m – 10.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±63ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.32 | 15 | -5.47 | 1.8 – 4.84 |
| 2028 | 5.87 | 15 | -9.35 | 3.06 – 8.69 |
| 2030 | 8.43 | 15 | -10 | 4.48 – 12.38 |
| 2035 | 14.81 | 15 | -10 | 7.81 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.41· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.2typical miss · 1 realized · 155% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.2bn | 10.3bn | 4.2bn | 6.6bn – 7.8bn |
| 2028 | 8bn | 13.3bn | 2.7bn | 6.8bn – 9.2bn |
| 2030 | 8.7bn | 15.6bn | 1.9bn | 7bn – 10.5bn |
| 2035 | 10.6bn | 20.3bn | 930.6m | 7.4bn – 13.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.77 | 3.62 | 1.92 | 2.6 – 2.95 |
| 2028 | 2.47 | 3.94 | 0.99 | 2.12 – 2.81 |
| 2030 | 2.32 | 4.22 | 0.41 | 1.84 – 2.79 |
| 2035 | 2.2 | 4.89 | 0 | 1.43 – 2.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.19· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.7bn | 20bn | 11.3bn | 14.7bn – 16.6bn |
| 2028 | 18.6bn | 26.1bn | 11.1bn | 16.6bn – 20.7bn |
| 2030 | 21.6bn | 31.3bn | 11.9bn | 18.4bn – 24.8bn |
| 2035 | 28.9bn | 42.7bn | 15.2bn | 22.2bn – 35.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.24 | 3.45 | 3.03 | 3.14 – 3.34 |
| 2028 | 2.97 | 3.34 | 2.6 | 2.75 – 3.19 |
| 2030 | 2.7 | 3.17 | 2.23 | 2.39 – 3 |
| 2035 | 2.01 | 2.68 | 1.35 | 1.59 – 2.44 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.24· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.74typical miss · 1 realized · 30% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/BLR · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 53.65 | 2024 (78.6bn) |
| 2028 | 63.02 | 2025 (93.4bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 3.8956 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.825 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.78 | 2024 (5.79) |
| 2027 | 6.79 | 2025 (6.6) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 6.7342 + 0.0087·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.671 over 19 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.21 | 2023 (40.7) |
| 2027 | -3.62 | 2024 (38.7) |
| 2028 | -5.13 | 2025 (31.3) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -11.5334 + 0.2046·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.666 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 60.4bn | 2025 (3.38) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 72074509952.5894 + -3451722570.8462·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.648 over 21 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.98 | 2025 (31.3) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 9.8495 + -0.1876·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.51 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 223.96 | 2025 (1.3) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 272.9041 + -37.6472·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/BLR?indicator= · API docs
