Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Belize: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Belize's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.702 over 37 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.88 | 2026 (3.5bn) |
Latest observed-4.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.81 | 2.02 | -9.65 | -5.06 – -2.56 |
| 2029 | -2.44 | 7.66 | -12.54 | -4.62 – -0.26 |
| 2031 | -1.07 | 11.98 | -14.11 | -3.81 – 1.68 |
| 2036 | 2.37 | 20.81 | -16.08 | -1.77 – 6.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-4.46· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.22(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 56 | 70.55 | 43.4 | 53.03 – 58.98 |
| 2027 | 57.56 | 82.76 | 35.73 | 51.2 – 63.93 |
| 2029 | 59.12 | 91.65 | 30.93 | 49.75 – 68.5 |
| 2034 | 63.02 | 109.02 | 23.15 | 46.37 – 79.68 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead55.7· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.6bn | 4bn | 3.2bn | 3.5bn – 3.7bn |
| 2029 | 3.9bn | 4.7bn | 3.2bn | 3.6bn – 4.2bn |
| 2031 | 4.2bn | 5.3bn | 3.3bn | 3.7bn – 4.7bn |
| 2036 | 5bn | 6.5bn | 3.7bn | 4bn – 6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.98 | 10.96 | -7.67 | -0.7 – 2.66 |
| 2029 | -1.9 | 12 | -10 | -4.88 – 1.07 |
| 2031 | -4.79 | 12 | -10 | -8.89 – -0.68 |
| 2036 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -3.14 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.26· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.4k | 9.6k | 7.3k | 8.1k – 8.6k |
| 2029 | 8.9k | 11k | 7.1k | 8.3k – 9.6k |
| 2031 | 9.5k | 12.2k | 7.2k | 8.4k – 10.6k |
| 2036 | 11k | 14.8k | 7.7k | 8.7k – 13.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.5k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed63.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 60.78 | 82.44 | 35.79 | 56.47 – 65.08 |
| 2029 | 55.93 | 93.45 | 12.65 | 47.48 – 64.39 |
| 2031 | 51.09 | 99.52 | 0 | 39.55 – 62.63 |
| 2036 | 38.98 | 107.47 | 0 | 22.2 – 55.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead61.88· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.75(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 54.63 | 63.03 | 46.23 | 52.47 – 56.79 |
| 2027 | 56.39 | 70.94 | 41.84 | 51.46 – 61.32 |
| 2029 | 58.15 | 76.94 | 39.36 | 50.62 – 65.68 |
| 2034 | 62.55 | 89.12 | 35.98 | 48.48 – 76.63 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead54.39· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.91 | 5.82 | -2.28 | 1.02 – 2.81 |
| 2029 | 2.52 | 9.3 | -4.73 | 0.9 – 4.15 |
| 2031 | 3.14 | 11.88 | -5 | 0.95 – 5.33 |
| 2036 | 4.67 | 17.04 | -5 | 1.18 – 8.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.05· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.13(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21.55 | 23.38 | 19.96 | 20.88 – 22.22 |
| 2027 | 22.73 | 25.91 | 19.98 | 21.05 – 24.41 |
| 2029 | 23.91 | 28.02 | 20.36 | 21.2 – 26.63 |
| 2034 | 26.87 | 32.67 | 21.84 | 21.3 – 32.44 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.65· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed422.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 421.8k | 441.8k | 403.3k | 408.8k – 434.9k |
| 2029 | 423k | 443k | 404.5k | 391.7k – 454.3k |
| 2031 | 424.2k | 444.2k | 405.6k | 376k – 472.4k |
| 2036 | 427.2k | 447.3k | 408.4k | 338.5k – 515.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead429.4k· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.26 | 12.71 | -10 | -6.45 – -2.07 |
| 2028 | -7.98 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -3.92 |
| 2030 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -4.46 |
| 2035 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -1.69 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.76· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.64typical miss · 1 realized · 204% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed559.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 582.6m | 651.6m | 513.5m | 562.7m – 602.4m |
| 2028 | 645.6m | 765.3m | 526m | 596.3m – 694.9m |
| 2030 | 708.7m | 863.2m | 554.3m | 628.3m – 789.2m |
| 2035 | 866.5m | 1.1bn | 648.1m | 686.7m – 1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead565.7m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.44 | 4.86 | 2.02 | 3.17 – 3.71 |
| 2028 | 3.38 | 5.84 | 0.91 | 2.84 – 3.92 |
| 2030 | 3.35 | 6.53 | 0.16 | 2.59 – 4.1 |
| 2035 | 3.32 | 7.83 | 0 | 2.1 – 4.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.53· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed559.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 582.6m | 651.6m | 513.5m | 562.7m – 602.4m |
| 2028 | 645.6m | 765.3m | 526m | 596.3m – 694.9m |
| 2030 | 708.7m | 863.2m | 554.3m | 628.3m – 789.2m |
| 2035 | 866.5m | 1.1bn | 648.1m | 686.7m – 1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead565.7m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.53 | 6.35 | 0 | 0.76 – 2.29 |
| 2029 | 0 | 8.35 | 0 | 0 – 1.33 |
| 2031 | 0 | 10.78 | 0 | 0 – 1.73 |
| 2036 | 0 | 15.25 | 0 | 0 – 2.49 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.95· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/BLZ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 13.0748 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.647 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 71.44 | 2024 (8.7) |
| 2028 | 70.84 | 2025 (8.86) |
| 2029 | 94.47 | 2026 (2.6) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 104.2857 + -3.7761·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.605 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.5bn | 2026 (2.6) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 4106528883.3901 + -238942450.6775·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/BLZ?indicator= · API docs
