Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Belize: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Belize's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.673 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 73.46 | 2023 (8.28) |
Latest observed-5.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.94 | 4.13 | -8 | -3.2 – -0.67 |
| 2028 | -0.21 | 10.3 | -10.71 | -2.4 – 1.98 |
| 2030 | 1.52 | 15.08 | -12.04 | -1.37 – 4.41 |
| 2035 | 5.84 | 25.02 | -13.33 | 0.99 – 10.69 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-5.39· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.26typical miss · 1 realized · 63% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.22(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 56 | 70.55 | 43.4 | 53.03 – 58.98 |
| 2027 | 57.56 | 82.76 | 35.73 | 51.2 – 63.93 |
| 2029 | 59.12 | 91.65 | 30.93 | 49.75 – 68.5 |
| 2034 | 63.02 | 109.02 | 23.15 | 46.37 – 79.68 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead55.7· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.5bn | 3.9bn | 3bn | 3.3bn – 3.6bn |
| 2028 | 3.8bn | 4.6bn | 3.1bn | 3.5bn – 4.1bn |
| 2030 | 4.1bn | 5.2bn | 3.2bn | 3.7bn – 4.6bn |
| 2035 | 4.9bn | 6.5bn | 3.6bn | 3.9bn – 6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±10.8mtypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.8 | 12 | -10 | -1.46 – 9.06 |
| 2028 | 5.83 | 12 | -10 | -3.46 – 12 |
| 2030 | 7.85 | 12 | -10 | -4.4 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -6.36 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.89· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.9typical miss · 1 realized · 100% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.1k | 9.3k | 7k | 7.8k – 8.4k |
| 2028 | 8.7k | 10.8k | 6.9k | 8k – 9.3k |
| 2030 | 9.3k | 12k | 6.9k | 8.2k – 10.3k |
| 2035 | 10.7k | 14.5k | 7.4k | 8.5k – 13k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.54typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 65.39 | 87.71 | 39.64 | 60.91 – 69.87 |
| 2028 | 62.37 | 101.03 | 17.77 | 53.43 – 71.31 |
| 2030 | 59.35 | 109.26 | 1.77 | 46.93 – 71.78 |
| 2035 | 51.81 | 122.39 | 0 | 32.66 – 70.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead63.29· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.79typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.75(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 54.63 | 63.03 | 46.23 | 52.47 – 56.79 |
| 2027 | 56.39 | 70.94 | 41.84 | 51.46 – 61.32 |
| 2029 | 58.15 | 76.94 | 39.36 | 50.62 – 65.68 |
| 2034 | 62.55 | 89.12 | 35.98 | 48.48 – 76.63 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead54.39· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.29 | 5.14 | -4.9 | -0.8 – 1.38 |
| 2028 | -2.83 | 5.57 | -5 | -4.82 – -0.83 |
| 2030 | -5 | 5.84 | -5 | -5 – -2.2 |
| 2035 | -5 | 10.33 | -5 | -5 – -0.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.57· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.21typical miss · 1 realized · 92% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.13(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21.55 | 23.38 | 19.96 | 20.88 – 22.22 |
| 2027 | 22.73 | 25.91 | 19.98 | 21.05 – 24.41 |
| 2029 | 23.91 | 28.02 | 20.36 | 21.2 – 26.63 |
| 2034 | 26.87 | 32.67 | 21.84 | 21.3 – 32.44 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.65· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed422.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 421.1k | 441k | 402.6k | 408k – 434.1k |
| 2028 | 427.5k | 447.7k | 408.8k | 395.9k – 459.1k |
| 2030 | 433.9k | 454.4k | 414.9k | 384.7k – 483.2k |
| 2035 | 450k | 471.3k | 430.3k | 356.7k – 543.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead431.5k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.9ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.26 | 12.71 | -10 | -6.45 – -2.07 |
| 2028 | -7.98 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -3.92 |
| 2030 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -4.46 |
| 2035 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -1.69 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.76· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.64typical miss · 1 realized · 204% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed559.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 582.6m | 651.6m | 513.5m | 562.7m – 602.4m |
| 2028 | 645.6m | 765.3m | 526m | 596.3m – 694.9m |
| 2030 | 708.7m | 863.2m | 554.3m | 628.3m – 789.2m |
| 2035 | 866.5m | 1.1bn | 648.1m | 686.7m – 1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead565.7m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.44 | 4.86 | 2.02 | 3.17 – 3.71 |
| 2028 | 3.38 | 5.84 | 0.91 | 2.84 – 3.92 |
| 2030 | 3.35 | 6.53 | 0.16 | 2.59 – 4.1 |
| 2035 | 3.32 | 7.83 | 0 | 2.1 – 4.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.53· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed559.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 582.6m | 651.6m | 513.5m | 562.7m – 602.4m |
| 2028 | 645.6m | 765.3m | 526m | 596.3m – 694.9m |
| 2030 | 708.7m | 863.2m | 554.3m | 628.3m – 789.2m |
| 2035 | 866.5m | 1.1bn | 648.1m | 686.7m – 1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead565.7m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.43 | 9.81 | 7.06 | 8.09 – 8.78 |
| 2028 | 7.59 | 9.98 | 5.2 | 6.86 – 8.32 |
| 2030 | 6.75 | 9.83 | 3.67 | 5.74 – 7.76 |
| 2035 | 4.64 | 9 | 0.28 | 3.23 – 6.05 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.29· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.43typical miss · 1 realized · 322% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/BLZ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 71.81 | 2024 (8.7) |
| 2028 | 71.18 | 2025 (8.86) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 106.1178 + -3.9448·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.643 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.79 | 2025 (3.3bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 12.655 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.619 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.9bn | 2025 (8.86) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 3960275631.963 + -228354329.1167·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.502 over 22 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.76 | 2023 (66.6) |
| 2027 | -6.1 | 2024 (64.3) |
| 2028 | -5.72 | 2025 (66.9) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -15.4175 + 0.1449·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/BLZ?indicator= · API docs
