Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Bolivia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Bolivia's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.673 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.2 | 2023 (-2.2) |
Latest observed1.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.83 | 2.83 | -6.5 | -2.82 – -0.85 |
| 2028 | -1.7 | 6.38 | -9.79 | -3.44 – 0.03 |
| 2030 | -1.57 | 8.87 | -12.01 | -3.83 – 0.68 |
| 2035 | -1.25 | 13.52 | -16.01 | -4.46 – 1.97 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.84· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.43typical miss · 1 realized · 215% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.44(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22.07 | 30.12 | 15.09 | 20.57 – 23.57 |
| 2027 | 23.34 | 37.29 | 11.25 | 20.23 – 26.46 |
| 2029 | 24.62 | 42.62 | 9.01 | 20.07 – 29.16 |
| 2034 | 27.8 | 53.26 | 5.72 | 19.71 – 35.88 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.76· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 67.4bn | 77.3bn | 58.9bn | 65.2bn – 69.7bn |
| 2028 | 74.4bn | 91.5bn | 59.6bn | 68.8bn – 80bn |
| 2030 | 81.4bn | 103.4bn | 62.3bn | 72.1bn – 90.6bn |
| 2035 | 98.8bn | 129.9bn | 71.7bn | 78.3bn – 119.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead55.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±13.6bntypical miss · 1 realized · 25% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-1.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.53 | 12 | -10 | -6.23 – 1.18 |
| 2028 | -4.61 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 1.95 |
| 2030 | -6.7 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 2.03 |
| 2035 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 3.18 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-5.42· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.47typical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.3k | 6.1k | 4.6k | 5.1k – 5.5k |
| 2028 | 5.8k | 7.2k | 4.5k | 5.3k – 6.2k |
| 2030 | 6.2k | 8k | 4.6k | 5.5k – 6.9k |
| 2035 | 7.3k | 9.9k | 5.1k | 5.8k – 8.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.3k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.1ktypical miss · 1 realized · 26% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed100.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 88.92 | 98.88 | 77.43 | 85.97 – 91.88 |
| 2028 | 100.17 | 117.42 | 80.26 | 92.7 – 107.63 |
| 2030 | 111.41 | 133.68 | 85.71 | 98.76 – 124.06 |
| 2035 | 139.52 | 171.02 | 103.18 | 110.58 – 168.46 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead103.89· skill-weighted across models
Track record±11.28typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.54(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25.72 | 32.34 | 19.1 | 24.3 – 27.15 |
| 2027 | 26.08 | 37.55 | 14.61 | 23.07 – 29.09 |
| 2029 | 26.44 | 41.25 | 11.63 | 22.06 – 30.82 |
| 2034 | 27.33 | 48.28 | 6.39 | 19.76 – 34.91 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.63· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.03 | 36.03 | 13.24 | 22.19 – 27.87 |
| 2028 | 45.21 | 50 | 24.79 | 38.82 – 50 |
| 2030 | 50 | 50 | 23.63 | 40.54 – 50 |
| 2035 | 50 | 50 | 12.71 | 34.29 – 50 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.18· skill-weighted across models
Track record±12.33typical miss · 1 realized · 97% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.61(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16.26 | 21.75 | 11.51 | 15.22 – 17.31 |
| 2027 | 15.23 | 24.73 | 7 | 13.14 – 17.32 |
| 2029 | 14.2 | 26.46 | 3.57 | 11.31 – 17.08 |
| 2034 | 11.61 | 28.95 | 0 | 7.28 – 15.95 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.98· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.5m | 13.1m | 12m | 12.2m – 12.9m |
| 2028 | 12.7m | 13.3m | 12.2m | 11.8m – 13.7m |
| 2030 | 12.9m | 13.5m | 12.3m | 11.4m – 14.4m |
| 2035 | 13.4m | 14m | 12.8m | 10.6m – 16.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.9m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±210ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-4.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.59 | 2.78 | -10 | -5.58 – -3.59 |
| 2028 | -5.83 | 6.93 | -10 | -7.7 – -3.95 |
| 2030 | -7.07 | 9.4 | -10 | -9.69 – -4.44 |
| 2035 | -10 | 13.29 | -10 | -10 – -5.49 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.94· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.58typical miss · 1 realized · 39% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed579.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 189.4m | 2.2bn | 0 | 0 – 492.8m |
| 2028 | 0 | 3.4bn | 0 | 0 – 520.4m |
| 2030 | 0 | 4.4bn | 0 | 0 – 671.8m |
| 2035 | 0 | 6.2bn | 0 | 0 – 950.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead85m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.95 | 4.14 | 0 | 1.58 – 2.32 |
| 2028 | 3.66 | 7.45 | 0 | 2.9 – 4.41 |
| 2030 | 4.49 | 9.39 | 0 | 3.39 – 5.6 |
| 2035 | 5.16 | 12.09 | 0 | 3.28 – 7.05 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.01· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed579.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0 | 1.6bn | 0 | 0 – 244.2m |
| 2028 | 0 | 2.8bn | 0 | 0 – 423m |
| 2030 | 0 | 3.6bn | 0 | 0 – 546.1m |
| 2035 | 0 | 5bn | 0 | 0 – 772.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.09 | 4.21 | 0 | 1.73 – 2.45 |
| 2028 | 0.34 | 4.01 | 0 | 0 – 0.95 |
| 2030 | 0 | 4.74 | 0 | 0 – 0.81 |
| 2035 | 0 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 – 1.19 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.74· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.41typical miss · 1 realized · 54% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/BOL · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 62.72 | 2024 (-2.4) |
| 2028 | 61.41 | 2025 (-1.9) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 56.4175 + -2.6267·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.593 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.29 | 2023 (52.3bn) |
| 2027 | 4.39 | 2024 (54.9bn) |
| 2028 | 4.78 | 2025 (64.8bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 2.2334 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.528 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.8bn | 2023 (3.02) |
| 2027 | 28bn | 2024 (3.27) |
| 2028 | 25.3bn | 2025 (2.97) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -1060392539.8918 + 8874662678.1492·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.523 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.24 | 2023 (78.3) |
| 2027 | 5.86 | 2024 (83.2) |
| 2028 | 5.88 | 2025 (83.3) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -4.7426 + 0.1275·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/BOL?indicator= · API docs
