Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Brazil: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Brazil's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Real GDP growth by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.501 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 71.23 | 2023 (3.24) |
Latest observed-2.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.87 | -0.72 | -5.01 | -3.35 – -2.38 |
| 2028 | -2.8 | 0.92 | -6.52 | -3.69 – -1.91 |
| 2030 | -2.73 | 2.06 | -7.53 | -3.93 – -1.54 |
| 2035 | -2.57 | 4.22 | -9.35 | -4.36 – -0.77 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-2.41· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.47typical miss · 1 realized · 19% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.37 | 21.38 | 15.77 | 17.65 – 19.1 |
| 2028 | 19.48 | 24.69 | 14.97 | 17.8 – 21.16 |
| 2030 | 20.59 | 27.31 | 14.76 | 17.98 – 23.19 |
| 2035 | 23.35 | 32.86 | 15.11 | 18.26 – 28.44 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.88· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.3T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.3T | 2.8T | 2T | 2.3T – 2.4T |
| 2028 | 2.5T | 3.3T | 1.9T | 2.3T – 2.7T |
| 2030 | 2.7T | 3.7T | 1.8T | 2.4T – 3T |
| 2035 | 3.2T | 4.6T | 1.9T | 2.5T – 3.8T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.8T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±305.2bntypical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.25 | 9.69 | -4.21 | 0.97 – 3.52 |
| 2028 | 2.18 | 12 | -9 | -0.08 – 4.43 |
| 2030 | 2.1 | 12 | -10 | -0.84 – 5.05 |
| 2035 | 1.93 | 12 | -10 | -2.31 – 6.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.9· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.05typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11k | 13.2k | 9.1k | 10.6k – 11.4k |
| 2028 | 11.8k | 15.5k | 8.5k | 10.8k – 12.8k |
| 2030 | 12.5k | 17.4k | 8.3k | 11k – 14.1k |
| 2035 | 14.4k | 21.3k | 8.5k | 11.3k – 17.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.5k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.4ktypical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed97(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 94.22 | 103.08 | 84.01 | 91.3 – 97.15 |
| 2028 | 96.07 | 111.41 | 78.38 | 88.97 – 103.18 |
| 2030 | 97.92 | 117.72 | 75.08 | 86.8 – 109.04 |
| 2035 | 102.54 | 130.54 | 70.23 | 81.27 – 123.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead97.4· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.78typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.47(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.91 | 21.52 | 14.31 | 17.08 – 18.75 |
| 2028 | 18.8 | 25.04 | 12.56 | 16.94 – 20.66 |
| 2030 | 19.68 | 27.74 | 11.63 | 16.88 – 22.49 |
| 2035 | 21.9 | 33.29 | 10.51 | 16.65 – 27.14 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.44· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.94typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4 | 11.74 | -1.38 | 3.91 – 6.89 |
| 2028 | 6.31 | 17.28 | -5 | 3.58 – 9.05 |
| 2030 | 7.22 | 21.38 | -5 | 3.5 – 10.94 |
| 2035 | 9.49 | 29.52 | -5 | 3.54 – 15.45 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.82· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1typical miss · 1 realized · 23% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.79 | 18.56 | 15.27 | 16.27 – 17.31 |
| 2028 | 16.73 | 19.79 | 14.09 | 15.49 – 17.97 |
| 2030 | 16.67 | 20.61 | 13.26 | 14.78 – 18.57 |
| 2035 | 16.52 | 22.1 | 11.69 | 13.08 – 19.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.83· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.04typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed212.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 212.6m | 222.6m | 203.3m | 206m – 219.2m |
| 2028 | 213.5m | 223.6m | 204.1m | 197.7m – 229.3m |
| 2030 | 214.4m | 224.5m | 205m | 190m – 238.7m |
| 2035 | 216.6m | 226.8m | 207.1m | 171.7m – 261.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead215m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.6mtypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.96(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.63 | 11.04 | -5.43 | 0.43 – 2.83 |
| 2028 | 3.02 | 15 | -9.21 | 0.84 – 5.2 |
| 2030 | 4.41 | 15 | -10 | 1.43 – 7.39 |
| 2035 | 7.88 | 15 | -10 | 2.9 – 12.86 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.1· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.15typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed334.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 334bn | 377.2bn | 290.7bn | 322bn – 345.9bn |
| 2028 | 332.2bn | 407.1bn | 257.2bn | 304.8bn – 359.6bn |
| 2030 | 330.4bn | 427.1bn | 233.6bn | 289.1bn – 371.6bn |
| 2035 | 325.9bn | 462.7bn | 189.1bn | 252.8bn – 399bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead334bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.41 | 13.14 | 5.68 | 8.69 – 10.13 |
| 2028 | 10.58 | 17.04 | 4.12 | 9.09 – 12.08 |
| 2030 | 11.16 | 19.5 | 2.82 | 8.99 – 13.33 |
| 2035 | 11.62 | 23.41 | 0 | 7.96 – 15.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.89· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed358.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 361.3bn | 408.9bn | 313.8bn | 348.3bn – 374.4bn |
| 2028 | 367.7bn | 450.1bn | 285.3bn | 337.5bn – 398bn |
| 2030 | 374.1bn | 480.5bn | 267.8bn | 327.9bn – 420.3bn |
| 2035 | 390.1bn | 540.6bn | 239.7bn | 304.7bn – 475.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead361.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.28 | 6.67 | 1.9 | 3.85 – 4.72 |
| 2028 | 0.91 | 5.05 | 0 | 0.23 – 1.59 |
| 2030 | 0 | 5.34 | 0 | 0 – 0.9 |
| 2035 | 0 | 7.55 | 0 | 0 – 1.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.58· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.92typical miss · 1 realized · 31% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/BRA · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 70.87 | 2024 (3.42) |
| 2028 | 73.21 | 2025 (2.29) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 77.9429 + -2.0694·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/BRA?indicator= · API docs
