Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Barbados: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2018, 2020, 2022, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Barbados's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.919 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 134.5 | 2023 (7.2bn) |
Latest observed-6.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.35 | -1.13 | -11.58 | -7.52 – -5.19 |
| 2028 | -7.26 | 1.78 | -16.31 | -9.46 – -5.07 |
| 2030 | -8.17 | 3.5 | -19.85 | -11.21 – -5.14 |
| 2035 | -10.45 | 6.06 | -26.96 | -15.49 – -5.41 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-6.45· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.05typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.3bn | 9.3bn | 7.4bn | 8bn – 8.5bn |
| 2028 | 9bn | 10.8bn | 7.5bn | 8.3bn – 9.7bn |
| 2030 | 9.7bn | 12bn | 7.8bn | 8.6bn – 10.8bn |
| 2035 | 11.5bn | 14.7bn | 8.7bn | 9.1bn – 13.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±36.4mtypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.74 | 12 | -10 | -0.83 – 8.32 |
| 2028 | 5.87 | 12 | -10 | -2.23 – 12 |
| 2030 | 7.99 | 12 | -10 | -2.74 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -4.19 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.83· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.94typical miss · 1 realized · 108% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.3k | 32.9k | 26.2k | 28.4k – 30.2k |
| 2028 | 31.8k | 38.1k | 26.4k | 29.5k – 34.2k |
| 2030 | 34.3k | 42.4k | 27.3k | 30.4k – 38.2k |
| 2035 | 40.6k | 52k | 30.6k | 32.1k – 49k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.1ktypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed93.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 92.82 | 120.04 | 61.42 | 87.15 – 98.49 |
| 2028 | 86.07 | 133.21 | 31.67 | 74.68 – 97.45 |
| 2030 | 79.31 | 140.17 | 9.09 | 63.6 – 95.02 |
| 2035 | 62.42 | 148.49 | 0 | 39.19 – 85.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead90.99· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.98typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.77 | 4.18 | -2.88 | -0 – 1.54 |
| 2028 | -0.07 | 5.83 | -5 | -1.42 – 1.29 |
| 2030 | -0.91 | 6.7 | -5 | -2.68 – 0.86 |
| 2035 | -3.01 | 7.76 | -5 | -5 – -0.14 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.79· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.83typical miss · 1 realized · 70% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed282.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 282.6k | 295.9k | 270.2k | 273.8k – 291.3k |
| 2028 | 282.8k | 296.1k | 270.4k | 261.8k – 303.7k |
| 2030 | 282.9k | 296.3k | 270.5k | 250.8k – 315.1k |
| 2035 | 283.4k | 296.7k | 270.9k | 224.6k – 342.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead292.8k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±9.4ktypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.96 | 15 | -10 | -0.24 – 6.15 |
| 2028 | 3.13 | 15 | -10 | -2.48 – 8.74 |
| 2030 | 3.31 | 15 | -10 | -4 – 10.62 |
| 2035 | 3.75 | 15 | -10 | -6.81 – 14.31 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.48· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.62typical miss · 1 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.7bn | 2.1bn | 1.3bn | 1.6bn – 1.8bn |
| 2027 | 1.9bn | 2.6bn | 1.1bn | 1.7bn – 2.1bn |
| 2029 | 2.1bn | 3bn | 1.1bn | 1.7bn – 2.4bn |
| 2034 | 2.5bn | 3.8bn | 1.1bn | 1.9bn – 3.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.26(2017)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1.75 | 2.82 | 0.69 | 1.56 – 1.95 |
| 2020 | 2.35 | 4.19 | 0.51 | 1.95 – 2.74 |
| 2022 | 2.64 | 5.01 | 0.26 | 2.06 – 3.21 |
| 2027 | 2.87 | 6.23 | 0 | 1.9 – 3.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.02· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.7bn | 2.1bn | 1.3bn | 1.6bn – 1.8bn |
| 2027 | 1.9bn | 2.6bn | 1.1bn | 1.7bn – 2.1bn |
| 2029 | 2.1bn | 3bn | 1.1bn | 1.7bn – 2.4bn |
| 2034 | 2.5bn | 3.8bn | 1.1bn | 1.9bn – 3.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.53 | 8.51 | 2.56 | 4.99 – 6.08 |
| 2028 | 3.55 | 8.7 | 0 | 2.59 – 4.51 |
| 2030 | 1.56 | 8.21 | 0 | 0.42 – 2.71 |
| 2035 | 0 | 9.4 | 0 | 0 – 1.6 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.47· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.77typical miss · 1 realized · 24% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/BRB · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 140.73 | 2024 (7.6bn) |
| 2028 | 147.7 | 2025 (8bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 14.3378 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.852 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.6bn | 2024 (98.9) |
| 2027 | 5.5bn | 2025 (96.2) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 987999738.3899 + 46877677.7052·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.791 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.37 | 2025 (6.52) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -11.6233 + 0.6526·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.712 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.87 | 2025 (8bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 19.0705 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/BRB?indicator= · API docs
