Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Barbados: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2018, 2020, 2022, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Barbados's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.875 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 133.81 | 2024 (7.6bn) |
Latest observed-7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -7.5 | -2.37 | -12.63 | -8.67 – -6.33 |
| 2029 | -8.5 | 0.39 | -17.38 | -10.72 – -6.28 |
| 2031 | -9.49 | 1.98 | -20.96 | -12.59 – -6.39 |
| 2036 | -11.99 | 4.23 | -28.21 | -17.22 – -6.76 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-7.19· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.8bn | 9.8bn | 7.9bn | 8.5bn – 9.1bn |
| 2029 | 9.6bn | 11.4bn | 8.1bn | 8.9bn – 10.4bn |
| 2031 | 10.5bn | 12.7bn | 8.5bn | 9.3bn – 11.7bn |
| 2036 | 12.6bn | 15.8bn | 9.8bn | 10bn – 15.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.7 | 12 | -10 | -0.85 – 4.25 |
| 2029 | -0.27 | 12 | -10 | -4.68 – 4.15 |
| 2031 | -2.23 | 12 | -10 | -8.05 – 3.58 |
| 2036 | -7.15 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 1.97 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.7· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 30k | 33.6k | 26.9k | 29.1k – 30.9k |
| 2029 | 32.5k | 38.8k | 27.1k | 30.1k – 34.9k |
| 2031 | 35k | 43.1k | 28k | 31k – 39k |
| 2036 | 41.3k | 52.7k | 31.4k | 32.7k – 49.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead30.2k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed89.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 85.92 | 112.17 | 55.62 | 80.5 – 91.33 |
| 2029 | 78.75 | 124.23 | 26.27 | 67.97 – 89.52 |
| 2031 | 71.58 | 130.29 | 3.83 | 56.82 – 86.34 |
| 2036 | 53.65 | 136.69 | 0 | 32.29 – 75.01 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead86.33· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.99 | 6.53 | -0.81 | 2.15 – 3.82 |
| 2029 | 5.02 | 11.16 | -1.56 | 3.42 – 6.62 |
| 2031 | 7.05 | 14.98 | -1.44 | 4.73 – 9.38 |
| 2036 | 12.14 | 23.35 | 0.13 | 7.71 – 16.57 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.41· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed282.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 292.9k | 306.7k | 280k | 283.8k – 302k |
| 2029 | 303.2k | 317.5k | 289.9k | 280.8k – 325.6k |
| 2031 | 313.5k | 328.3k | 299.8k | 277.9k – 349.1k |
| 2036 | 339.3k | 356.4k | 323.4k | 268.9k – 409.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead292.8k· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.96 | 15 | -10 | -0.24 – 6.15 |
| 2028 | 3.13 | 15 | -10 | -2.48 – 8.74 |
| 2030 | 3.31 | 15 | -10 | -4 – 10.62 |
| 2035 | 3.75 | 15 | -10 | -6.81 – 14.31 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.48· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.62typical miss · 1 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.7bn | 2.1bn | 1.3bn | 1.6bn – 1.8bn |
| 2027 | 1.9bn | 2.6bn | 1.1bn | 1.7bn – 2.1bn |
| 2029 | 2.1bn | 3bn | 1.1bn | 1.7bn – 2.4bn |
| 2034 | 2.5bn | 3.8bn | 1.1bn | 1.9bn – 3.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.26(2017)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1.75 | 2.82 | 0.69 | 1.56 – 1.95 |
| 2020 | 2.35 | 4.19 | 0.51 | 1.95 – 2.74 |
| 2022 | 2.64 | 5.01 | 0.26 | 2.06 – 3.21 |
| 2027 | 2.87 | 6.23 | 0 | 1.9 – 3.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.02· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.7bn | 2.1bn | 1.3bn | 1.6bn – 1.8bn |
| 2027 | 1.9bn | 2.6bn | 1.1bn | 1.7bn – 2.1bn |
| 2029 | 2.1bn | 3bn | 1.1bn | 1.7bn – 2.4bn |
| 2034 | 2.5bn | 3.8bn | 1.1bn | 1.9bn – 3.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.13 | 9.06 | 3.21 | 5.59 – 6.68 |
| 2029 | 4.8 | 9.87 | 0 | 3.79 – 5.8 |
| 2031 | 3.46 | 10 | 0 | 2.18 – 4.74 |
| 2036 | 0.12 | 9.38 | 0 | 0 – 1.7 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.92· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/BRB · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 140.09 | 2025 (8bn) |
| 2029 | 147.07 | 2026 (8.5bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 20.0406 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.82 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.5bn | 2025 (94.2) |
| 2028 | 5.3bn | 2026 (89.5) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 929602178.4284 + 48675222.381·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.801 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -7.29 | 2026 (6.8) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -11.7934 + 0.6627·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.721 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.3 | 2026 (8.5bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 18.9434 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/BRB?indicator= · API docs
