Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Brunei: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Brunei's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.935 over 41 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.05 | 2023 (15.1bn) |
Latest observed23.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.8 | 29.26 | 10.35 | 17.56 – 22.05 |
| 2028 | 23.41 | 30 | 7.03 | 18.94 – 27.87 |
| 2030 | 27.01 | 30 | 5.87 | 20.54 – 30 |
| 2035 | 30 | 30 | 0.1 | 19.1 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.37· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.9typical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed71.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 74.94 | 95.14 | 57.44 | 70.86 – 79.03 |
| 2028 | 81.69 | 116.67 | 51.37 | 72.77 – 90.61 |
| 2030 | 88.44 | 133.6 | 49.3 | 74.91 – 101.96 |
| 2035 | 105.3 | 150 | 49.95 | 79.33 – 131.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead71.98· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.52typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.9bn | 18bn | 12.1bn | 14.3bn – 15.5bn |
| 2028 | 14.6bn | 20bn | 9.9bn | 13.2bn – 15.9bn |
| 2030 | 14.3bn | 21.4bn | 8.2bn | 12.4bn – 16.3bn |
| 2035 | 13.7bn | 23.6bn | 5.1bn | 10.3bn – 17bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4bntypical miss · 1 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.71 | 6.27 | -4.1 | -0.23 – 1.66 |
| 2028 | 0.81 | 10.43 | -7.53 | -0.84 – 2.46 |
| 2030 | 0.9 | 12 | -9.86 | -1.25 – 3.05 |
| 2035 | 1.13 | 12 | -10 | -1.98 – 4.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.32· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.19typical miss · 1 realized · 62% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.7k | 38.7k | 25.7k | 30.4k – 33k |
| 2028 | 30.6k | 42.7k | 20.2k | 27.7k – 33.6k |
| 2030 | 29.6k | 45.2k | 16.1k | 25.4k – 33.8k |
| 2035 | 27k | 49k | 7.9k | 20.1k – 34k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead42.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8.9ktypical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.46 | 2.18 | 0.63 | 1.33 – 1.6 |
| 2028 | 1.18 | 2.44 | 0 | 0.93 – 1.43 |
| 2030 | 0.91 | 2.52 | 0 | 0.58 – 1.23 |
| 2035 | 0.21 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 – 0.72 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.25· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.16typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed52.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 53.52 | 67.28 | 39.76 | 50.56 – 56.48 |
| 2028 | 56.49 | 80.33 | 32.65 | 50.13 – 62.85 |
| 2030 | 59.45 | 90.23 | 28.68 | 49.99 – 68.92 |
| 2035 | 66.87 | 110.39 | 23.34 | 49.51 – 84.23 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead52.56· skill-weighted across models
Track record±9.78typical miss · 1 realized · 19% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.13 | 3.32 | -3.83 | -0.91 – 0.65 |
| 2028 | -0.01 | 5.97 | -5 | -1.38 – 1.37 |
| 2030 | 0.11 | 7.83 | -5 | -1.68 – 1.9 |
| 2035 | 0.41 | 11.33 | -5 | -2.17 – 2.99 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.74· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.93typical miss · 1 realized · 116% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.39 | 34.88 | 19.03 | 24.75 – 28.02 |
| 2028 | 24.57 | 39.28 | 11.82 | 21.29 – 27.85 |
| 2030 | 22.75 | 41.74 | 6.29 | 18.22 – 27.28 |
| 2035 | 18.2 | 45.06 | 0 | 11.45 – 24.95 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.73· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed466.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 465.3k | 487.3k | 444.9k | 450.9k – 479.7k |
| 2028 | 469.3k | 491.4k | 448.7k | 434.6k – 504k |
| 2030 | 473.2k | 495.6k | 452.5k | 419.5k – 527k |
| 2035 | 483.2k | 506k | 462k | 382.9k – 583.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead468.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±301.8typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.82 | 9.3 | -5.53 | -0.25 – 1.9 |
| 2028 | 2.18 | 15 | -8.82 | 0.24 – 4.12 |
| 2030 | 3.54 | 15 | -10 | 0.89 – 6.2 |
| 2035 | 6.94 | 15 | -10 | 2.48 – 11.4 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.03· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.43typical miss · 1 realized · 2677% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.9bn | 6bn | 3.7bn | 4.6bn – 5.1bn |
| 2028 | 5bn | 7bn | 3bn | 4.5bn – 5.6bn |
| 2030 | 5.1bn | 7.7bn | 2.5bn | 4.3bn – 5.9bn |
| 2035 | 5.5bn | 9.1bn | 1.8bn | 4bn – 6.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.59 | 10.11 | 5.06 | 7.08 – 8.1 |
| 2028 | 7.21 | 11.59 | 2.83 | 6.19 – 8.22 |
| 2030 | 7.02 | 12.67 | 1.37 | 5.6 – 8.45 |
| 2035 | 6.87 | 14.87 | 0 | 4.55 – 9.2 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.05· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.6bn | 6.8bn | 4.4bn | 5.3bn – 5.9bn |
| 2028 | 5.9bn | 8bn | 3.8bn | 5.3bn – 6.5bn |
| 2030 | 6.2bn | 8.9bn | 3.5bn | 5.3bn – 7.1bn |
| 2035 | 7bn | 10.8bn | 3.2bn | 5.3bn – 8.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 | 7.05 | 2.95 | 4.61 – 5.39 |
| 2028 | 4.44 | 8 | 0.89 | 3.69 – 5.2 |
| 2030 | 3.89 | 8.47 | 0 | 2.87 – 4.9 |
| 2035 | 2.5 | 8.98 | 0 | 1.1 – 3.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.64· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.3typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/BRN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 2.1 | 2024 (15.3bn) |
| 2028 | 2.03 | 2025 (15bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ -1.3822 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.737 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.54 | 2025 (1.6) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 5.2891 + 0.7839·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.723 over 40 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.8bn | 2025 (1.6) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 7896971645.3505 + 3086010167.7139·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.658 over 38 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.87 | 2023 (1.7) |
| 2027 | 20.71 | 2024 (1.6) |
| 2028 | 20.71 | 2025 (1.6) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 34.2198 + -8.4408·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.525 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.11 | 2025 (0.67) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 1.2662 + -0.2271·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/BRN?indicator= · API docs
