Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Central African Republic: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 1995, 1997, 1999, 2004, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Central African Republic's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.838 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.2bn | 2025 (42.6) |
Latest observed-3.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.21 | 4.03 | -8.46 | -3.52 – -0.9 |
| 2028 | -1.44 | 9.38 | -12.26 | -3.72 – 0.84 |
| 2030 | -0.67 | 13.3 | -14.63 | -3.6 – 2.27 |
| 2035 | 1.27 | 21.02 | -18.49 | -2.97 – 5.5 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.02· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.09typical miss · 1 realized · 33% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.55 | 23.68 | 15.97 | 18.64 – 20.45 |
| 2028 | 19.95 | 27.1 | 13.75 | 17.97 – 21.93 |
| 2030 | 20.35 | 29.59 | 12.35 | 17.41 – 23.3 |
| 2035 | 21.37 | 34.43 | 10.05 | 16.08 – 26.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.75· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.76typical miss · 1 realized · 25% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2bn | 3.5bn | 3bn | 3.1bn – 3.3bn |
| 2028 | 3.6bn | 4.1bn | 3.1bn | 3.3bn – 3.8bn |
| 2030 | 3.9bn | 4.6bn | 3.4bn | 3.5bn – 4.4bn |
| 2035 | 4.8bn | 5.7bn | 4bn | 3.8bn – 5.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.9bntypical miss · 1 realized · 37% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.72 | 8.28 | 3.51 | 5.2 – 6.24 |
| 2028 | 8.51 | 12 | 4.67 | 7.36 – 9.65 |
| 2030 | 11.29 | 12 | 6.34 | 9.44 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 8.73 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.92· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.02typical miss · 1 realized · 112% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed556.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 573.96 | 617.99 | 535.81 | 556.17 – 591.76 |
| 2028 | 618.35 | 694.6 | 552.27 | 572.6 – 664.1 |
| 2030 | 662.74 | 761.17 | 577.42 | 587.49 – 737.98 |
| 2035 | 773.7 | 912.91 | 653.05 | 613.21 – 934.19 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead958.52· skill-weighted across models
Track record±317.21typical miss · 1 realized · 36% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.55 | 50.27 | 31.49 | 39.54 – 43.55 |
| 2028 | 39.44 | 54.54 | 22.02 | 35.23 – 43.66 |
| 2030 | 37.34 | 56.84 | 14.84 | 31.35 – 43.33 |
| 2035 | 32.08 | 59.65 | 0.27 | 22.7 – 41.45 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead43.22· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.95typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.21 | 37.98 | 28.44 | 31.95 – 34.47 |
| 2028 | 32.51 | 40.77 | 24.25 | 29.69 – 35.33 |
| 2030 | 31.81 | 42.47 | 21.14 | 27.63 – 35.99 |
| 2035 | 30.05 | 45.14 | 14.97 | 22.94 – 37.17 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead33.4· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.21typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 4.79 | -3.06 | 0.14 – 1.86 |
| 2028 | 0.33 | 6.9 | -5 | -1.17 – 1.84 |
| 2030 | -0.33 | 8.14 | -5 | -2.29 – 1.63 |
| 2035 | -1.99 | 9.99 | -5 | -4.97 – 0.98 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.64· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.5typical miss · 1 realized · 71% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.73 | 18.84 | 11.18 | 13.91 – 15.56 |
| 2028 | 14.53 | 21.64 | 8.37 | 12.82 – 16.25 |
| 2030 | 14.33 | 23.51 | 6.38 | 11.88 – 16.79 |
| 2035 | 13.83 | 26.81 | 2.59 | 9.77 – 17.9 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.64· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.05typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.5m | 5.7m | 5.2m | 5.3m – 5.7m |
| 2028 | 5.7m | 6m | 5.4m | 5.3m – 6.1m |
| 2030 | 5.9m | 6.2m | 5.6m | 5.2m – 6.6m |
| 2035 | 6.4m | 6.7m | 6.1m | 5.1m – 7.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.8m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±210.6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.31 | 3.32 | -1.95 | -0.08 – 0.7 |
| 2028 | 0.1 | 5.31 | -3.82 | -0.6 – 0.8 |
| 2030 | -0.12 | 6.61 | -5.17 | -1.04 – 0.8 |
| 2035 | -0.65 | 8.87 | -7.79 | -2 – 0.7 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.44· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.04typical miss · 1 realized · 679% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed489.3m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 499.8m | 629m | 370.7m | 472.1m – 527.6m |
| 2027 | 529.6m | 753.3m | 306m | 470m – 589.3m |
| 2029 | 559.4m | 848.2m | 270.7m | 470.5m – 648.4m |
| 2034 | 633.9m | 1bn | 225.6m | 470m – 797.8m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead498.9m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.63(1994)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 7.95 | 11.13 | 4.77 | 7.34 – 8.57 |
| 1997 | 5.96 | 11.46 | 0.46 | 4.83 – 7.09 |
| 1999 | 4.98 | 12.09 | 0 | 3.5 – 6.47 |
| 2004 | 4.2 | 14.25 | 0 | 1.99 – 6.41 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.7· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed489.3m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 499.8m | 629m | 370.7m | 472.1m – 527.6m |
| 2027 | 529.6m | 753.3m | 306m | 470m – 589.3m |
| 2029 | 559.4m | 848.2m | 270.7m | 470.5m – 648.4m |
| 2034 | 633.9m | 1bn | 225.6m | 470m – 797.8m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead498.9m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.25(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.17 | 6.57 | 5.77 | 5.98 – 6.36 |
| 2028 | 6.01 | 6.7 | 5.32 | 5.57 – 6.46 |
| 2030 | 5.85 | 6.74 | 4.96 | 5.19 – 6.52 |
| 2035 | 5.45 | 6.71 | 4.19 | 4.32 – 6.59 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.26· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/CAF · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 2946300726.8683 + -18546438.8544·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.818 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.91 | 2025 (3.1bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 123.9333 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/CAF?indicator= · API docs
