Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Canada: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Canada's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.679 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.84 | 2023 (2.2T) |
Latest observed-0.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.65 | 0.9 | -2.19 | -0.98 – -0.31 |
| 2028 | -0.14 | 2.53 | -2.81 | -0.73 – 0.46 |
| 2030 | 0.37 | 3.82 | -3.07 | -0.41 – 1.16 |
| 2035 | 1.65 | 6.52 | -3.23 | 0.39 – 2.91 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.07· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.55typical miss · 1 realized · 545% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.43 | 34.95 | 28.37 | 30.42 – 32.43 |
| 2028 | 31.61 | 37.72 | 26.32 | 29.22 – 34 |
| 2030 | 31.8 | 39.68 | 24.96 | 28.13 – 35.47 |
| 2035 | 32.26 | 43.41 | 22.6 | 25.5 – 39.01 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead31.29· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.33typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.3T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.4T | 2.7T | 2.1T | 2.3T – 2.4T |
| 2028 | 2.5T | 3T | 2.1T | 2.3T – 2.7T |
| 2030 | 2.6T | 3.3T | 2.1T | 2.3T – 2.9T |
| 2035 | 3T | 3.9T | 2.2T | 2.4T – 3.6T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.6T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±121.7bntypical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.9 | 12 | -7.05 | 0.15 – 3.65 |
| 2028 | 2.19 | 12 | -10 | -0.9 – 5.27 |
| 2030 | 2.48 | 12 | -10 | -1.56 – 6.53 |
| 2035 | 3.21 | 12 | -10 | -2.74 – 9.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.48· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.8typical miss · 1 realized · 72% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56k | 63.9k | 49.2k | 54.2k – 57.9k |
| 2028 | 57.2k | 70.9k | 45.3k | 52.8k – 61.6k |
| 2030 | 58.4k | 76.1k | 43.1k | 51.6k – 65.2k |
| 2035 | 61.4k | 86.4k | 39.7k | 48.6k – 74.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead60.6k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.1ktypical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed115.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 116.2 | 134.3 | 95.32 | 111.56 – 120.84 |
| 2028 | 121.4 | 152.75 | 85.23 | 110.75 – 132.05 |
| 2030 | 126.6 | 167.07 | 79.91 | 110.25 – 142.96 |
| 2035 | 139.61 | 196.84 | 73.57 | 108.46 – 170.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead117.75· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.6typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.18(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.02 | 34.33 | 29.7 | 31.02 – 33.01 |
| 2028 | 31.69 | 35.69 | 27.68 | 29.34 – 34.03 |
| 2030 | 31.36 | 36.53 | 26.19 | 27.8 – 34.92 |
| 2035 | 30.55 | 37.86 | 23.24 | 24.21 – 36.88 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead32.04· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.37typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.13 | 7.04 | -3.14 | 1 – 3.25 |
| 2028 | 1.7 | 10.21 | -5 | -0.27 – 3.66 |
| 2030 | 1.26 | 12.25 | -5 | -1.27 – 3.8 |
| 2035 | 0.18 | 15.72 | -5 | -3.43 – 3.78 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.63· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.67typical miss · 1 realized · 24% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.88 | 24.09 | 21.84 | 22.18 – 23.59 |
| 2028 | 22.83 | 24.37 | 21.5 | 21.14 – 24.52 |
| 2030 | 22.78 | 24.77 | 21.06 | 20.2 – 25.37 |
| 2035 | 22.65 | 25.46 | 20.22 | 17.95 – 27.35 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.92· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.48typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.3m | 43.3m | 39.5m | 40m – 42.6m |
| 2028 | 41.7m | 43.7m | 39.9m | 38.6m – 44.8m |
| 2030 | 42.2m | 44.2m | 40.3m | 37.4m – 46.9m |
| 2035 | 43.2m | 45.3m | 41.3m | 34.3m – 52.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead42m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±126.9ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.92 | 4.37 | 0.09 | 1.59 – 2.26 |
| 2028 | 2.77 | 7.01 | -0.41 | 2.1 – 3.43 |
| 2030 | 3.61 | 9.08 | -0.5 | 2.64 – 4.58 |
| 2035 | 5.72 | 13.46 | -0.09 | 3.83 – 7.6 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.41· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.58typical miss · 1 realized · 100% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed125.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 130.5bn | 140.8bn | 120.2bn | 126.4bn – 134.5bn |
| 2028 | 142.6bn | 160.5bn | 124.8bn | 132.1bn – 153.2bn |
| 2030 | 154.8bn | 177.9bn | 131.8bn | 137.3bn – 172.4bn |
| 2035 | 185.3bn | 217.9bn | 152.7bn | 146.9bn – 223.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead131.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.59 | 1.89 | 1.29 | 1.52 – 1.66 |
| 2028 | 1.58 | 2.1 | 1.07 | 1.43 – 1.74 |
| 2030 | 1.58 | 2.24 | 0.92 | 1.35 – 1.81 |
| 2035 | 1.58 | 2.51 | 0.64 | 1.18 – 1.97 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.6· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed125.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 130.5bn | 140.8bn | 120.2bn | 126.4bn – 134.5bn |
| 2028 | 142.6bn | 160.5bn | 124.8bn | 132.1bn – 153.2bn |
| 2030 | 154.8bn | 177.9bn | 131.8bn | 137.3bn – 172.4bn |
| 2035 | 185.3bn | 217.9bn | 152.7bn | 146.9bn – 223.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead131.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.42 | 9.09 | 3.75 | 5.91 – 6.93 |
| 2028 | 5.44 | 10.06 | 0.81 | 4.47 – 6.41 |
| 2030 | 4.46 | 10.43 | 0 | 3.19 – 5.73 |
| 2035 | 2.01 | 10.45 | 0 | 0.4 – 3.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.3· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.08typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/CAN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 108.28 | 2024 (2.3T) |
| 2028 | 109.25 | 2025 (2.3T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 63.9948 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.656 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4T | 2025 (6.91) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 3049354424917.5566 + -238412708597.4958·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.646 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.8 | 2025 (2.3T) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 9.9515 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.531 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.61 | 2025 (113.6) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 9.2484 + -0.076·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/CAN?indicator= · API docs
