Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
CAQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, CAQ's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.791 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.08 | 2026 (2.5T) |
Latest observed-1.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -2.09 | 2.76 | -6.93 | -3.11 – -1.06 |
| 2029 | -2.46 | 5.93 | -10.85 | -4.29 – -0.63 |
| 2031 | -2.83 | 8 | -13.66 | -5.27 – -0.39 |
| 2036 | -3.76 | 11.56 | -19.07 | -7.48 – -0.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.93· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.5T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.6T | 2.9T | 2.4T | 2.6T – 2.7T |
| 2029 | 3.1T | 3.5T | 2.7T | 2.9T – 3.3T |
| 2031 | 3.6T | 4.1T | 3.1T | 3.2T – 4T |
| 2036 | 4.7T | 5.5T | 4T | 3.7T – 5.7T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.7T· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.57 | 6.96 | 0.62 | 2.94 – 4.19 |
| 2029 | 2.74 | 8.62 | -2.36 | 1.62 – 3.85 |
| 2031 | 1.91 | 9.5 | -4.67 | 0.49 – 3.32 |
| 2036 | -0.17 | 10.56 | -9.48 | -2.12 – 1.78 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.37· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.1k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 14.2k | 16.2k | 12.5k | 13.8k – 14.7k |
| 2029 | 17.1k | 20.5k | 14.1k | 15.8k – 18.3k |
| 2031 | 19.9k | 24.3k | 16.1k | 17.6k – 22.2k |
| 2036 | 27k | 33.2k | 21.6k | 21.4k – 32.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.2k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 24.83 | 31.38 | 17.27 | 23.43 – 26.24 |
| 2029 | 23.89 | 35.24 | 10.8 | 21 – 26.78 |
| 2031 | 22.95 | 37.6 | 6.05 | 18.86 – 27.04 |
| 2036 | 20.6 | 41.32 | 0 | 14.12 – 27.09 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.87· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 20.33 | 50 | -5 | 12.65 – 28.01 |
| 2029 | 15.43 | 50 | -5 | 1.95 – 28.9 |
| 2031 | 10.53 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 27.81 |
| 2036 | -1.72 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 21.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.33· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed187.7m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 182.4m | 209.3m | 157.4m | 176.7m – 188.1m |
| 2029 | 136.2m | 182.8m | 92.9m | 126m – 146.4m |
| 2031 | 90m | 150.1m | 34.2m | 78m – 102m |
| 2036 | 0 | 85m | 0 | 0 – 6.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead186.5m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/CAQ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 53.0405 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.71 over 24 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.5T | 2026 (25.3) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 2266184402080.9307 + -30758057704.5502·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.549 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.15 | 2025 (23.6) |
| 2028 | 4.39 | 2026 (25.3) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 0.8332 + 0.1406·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/CAQ?indicator= · API docs
