Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
CAQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, CAQ's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.846 over 24 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.7 | 2025 (2.3T) |
Latest observed-2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.64 | 2.41 | -7.69 | -3.71 – -1.57 |
| 2028 | -3.12 | 5.63 | -11.87 | -5.06 – -1.19 |
| 2030 | -3.6 | 7.7 | -14.9 | -6.2 – -1.01 |
| 2035 | -4.8 | 11.18 | -20.79 | -8.84 – -0.77 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-2.04· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.64typical miss · 1 realized · 32% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.7T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.5T | 2.8T | 2.3T | 2.5T – 2.6T |
| 2028 | 3T | 3.5T | 2.6T | 2.8T – 3.2T |
| 2030 | 3.5T | 4.1T | 2.9T | 3.1T – 3.9T |
| 2035 | 4.7T | 5.6T | 3.9T | 3.7T – 5.7T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.9T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±160.5bntypical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.52 | 12 | -3.39 | 2.93 – 6.11 |
| 2028 | 4.33 | 12 | -9.36 | 1.49 – 7.17 |
| 2030 | 4.14 | 12 | -10 | 0.41 – 7.88 |
| 2035 | 3.68 | 12 | -10 | -1.72 – 9.07 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.92typical miss · 1 realized · 25% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.3k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.9k | 12.2k | 9.8k | 10.6k – 11.3k |
| 2028 | 12.8k | 15.1k | 10.9k | 11.9k – 13.8k |
| 2030 | 14.8k | 17.6k | 12.3k | 13.1k – 16.4k |
| 2035 | 19.5k | 23.6k | 16k | 15.5k – 23.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.5k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.4ktypical miss · 1 realized · 24% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.56 | 30.05 | 16.07 | 22.18 – 24.94 |
| 2028 | 23.28 | 34.53 | 10.3 | 20.43 – 26.13 |
| 2030 | 23 | 37.52 | 6.25 | 18.93 – 27.08 |
| 2035 | 22.31 | 42.84 | 0 | 15.58 – 29.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.23· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.76typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.16 | 50 | -5 | 11.56 – 26.77 |
| 2028 | 1.66 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 14.38 |
| 2030 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 11.72 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 18.88 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.38· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.94typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed188m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 229.1m | 239.9m | 219.1m | 222m – 236.2m |
| 2028 | 232.4m | 243.3m | 222.2m | 215.2m – 249.6m |
| 2030 | 235.6m | 246.7m | 225.3m | 208.9m – 262.4m |
| 2035 | 243.7m | 255.3m | 233.1m | 193.2m – 294.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead186.8m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±41.1mtypical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/CAQ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 56.8487 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.737 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.5T | 2025 (23.7) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 2135398848234.6873 + -27993178107.2768·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.54 over 22 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.22 | 2024 (23.9) |
| 2027 | 4.2 | 2025 (23.7) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 0.8929 + 0.1394·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/CAQ?indicator= · API docs
