Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
CBQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, CBQ's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.639 over 24 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 98bn | 2023 (62.9) |
Latest observed3.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.78 | 8.71 | -3.15 | 1.52 – 4.03 |
| 2028 | 5.14 | 15.4 | -5.13 | 2.79 – 7.48 |
| 2030 | 7.49 | 20.75 | -5.76 | 4.19 – 10.8 |
| 2035 | 13.39 | 30 | -5.36 | 7.42 – 19.35 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.83· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.12typical miss · 1 realized · 29% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed181bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 162.9bn | 185bn | 143.8bn | 157.7bn – 168.2bn |
| 2028 | 184.5bn | 222.8bn | 151.4bn | 170.9bn – 198.2bn |
| 2030 | 206.1bn | 255.5bn | 163.4bn | 182.7bn – 229.5bn |
| 2035 | 260.2bn | 329.9bn | 199.7bn | 206.2bn – 314.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead193.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±18.1bntypical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.27 | 12 | -6.39 | 3.74 – 8.81 |
| 2028 | 6.55 | 12 | -10 | 2.02 – 11.09 |
| 2030 | 6.83 | 12 | -10 | 0.84 – 12 |
| 2035 | 7.54 | 12 | -10 | -1.37 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.9· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.73typical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.8k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8k | 9.1k | 7k | 7.7k – 8.2k |
| 2028 | 8.9k | 10.9k | 7.2k | 8.2k – 9.6k |
| 2030 | 9.8k | 12.4k | 7.6k | 8.7k – 10.9k |
| 2035 | 12.2k | 15.7k | 9.1k | 9.6k – 14.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±851.97typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed50.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.3 | 66.03 | 40.76 | 51.62 – 56.97 |
| 2028 | 52.49 | 72.82 | 29.04 | 46.85 – 58.14 |
| 2030 | 50.69 | 76.93 | 20.42 | 42.6 – 58.78 |
| 2035 | 46.18 | 83.29 | 3.37 | 33.08 – 59.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead51.57· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.1typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.27 | 13.03 | -0.96 | 4.68 – 7.87 |
| 2028 | 5.71 | 17.41 | -5 | 2.85 – 8.58 |
| 2030 | 5.15 | 20.25 | -5 | 1.39 – 8.91 |
| 2035 | 3.75 | 25.11 | -5 | -1.58 – 9.09 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.26· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.37typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.5m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.2m | 21.2m | 19.4m | 19.6m – 20.9m |
| 2028 | 20.5m | 21.5m | 19.6m | 19m – 22.1m |
| 2030 | 20.8m | 21.8m | 19.9m | 18.5m – 23.2m |
| 2035 | 21.6m | 22.6m | 20.6m | 17.1m – 26.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.7m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±281.6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/CBQ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 80.5bn | 2024 (55.9) |
| 2028 | 78.8bn | 2025 (55.2) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -58900832286.7353 + 2493737721.6568·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.608 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.56 | 2024 (55.9) |
| 2027 | 1.29 | 2025 (55.2) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ -19.2571 + 0.3723·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.599 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 51.79 | 2023 (12.5) |
| 2027 | 61.05 | 2024 (6.3) |
| 2028 | 61.65 | 2025 (5.9) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 70.4648 + -1.4941·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.518 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.4 | 2023 (124.4bn) |
| 2027 | 1.82 | 2024 (142bn) |
| 2028 | 0.7 | 2025 (154.5bn) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 14.5571 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/CBQ?indicator= · API docs
