Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Central Europe and the Baltics: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Central Europe and the Baltics's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.817 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.8 | 2025 (2.8T) |
Latest observed56.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55.85 | 64.28 | 48.55 | 53.76 – 57.95 |
| 2028 | 54.78 | 69.38 | 42.13 | 50.07 – 59.5 |
| 2030 | 53.72 | 72.56 | 37.38 | 46.73 – 60.7 |
| 2035 | 51.04 | 77.69 | 27.94 | 39.07 – 63.01 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead55.82· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.15typical miss · 25 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.9T | 3.2T | 2.7T | 2.8T – 3T |
| 2028 | 3.4T | 3.9T | 3T | 3.1T – 3.6T |
| 2030 | 3.8T | 4.4T | 3.3T | 3.4T – 4.3T |
| 2035 | 4.9T | 5.8T | 4.2T | 3.9T – 6T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.9T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±355.5bntypical miss · 25 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.99 | 12 | -5.57 | 1.29 – 4.68 |
| 2028 | 4.26 | 12 | -10 | 1.21 – 7.31 |
| 2030 | 5.53 | 12 | -10 | 1.41 – 9.65 |
| 2035 | 8.71 | 12 | -10 | 2.12 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.69· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.5typical miss · 25 realized · 358% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.4k | 32.1k | 27.1k | 28.5k – 30.4k |
| 2028 | 33.9k | 38.6k | 29.8k | 31.4k – 36.4k |
| 2030 | 38.3k | 44.4k | 33.1k | 34k – 42.7k |
| 2035 | 49.5k | 58k | 42.1k | 39.2k – 59.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.6ktypical miss · 25 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.49 | 65.92 | 43.07 | 51.87 – 57.12 |
| 2028 | 53.63 | 73.42 | 33.84 | 48.03 – 59.24 |
| 2030 | 52.77 | 78.32 | 27.22 | 44.64 – 60.9 |
| 2035 | 50.62 | 86.75 | 14.49 | 36.99 – 64.25 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead56.03· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.01typical miss · 25 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.89 | 17.47 | -5 | 2.02 – 7.75 |
| 2028 | 6.36 | 28.17 | -5 | 1.23 – 11.5 |
| 2030 | 7.84 | 35.99 | -5 | 0.98 – 14.71 |
| 2035 | 11.54 | 50 | -5 | 0.87 – 22.21 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.89· skill-weighted across models
Track record±11.62typical miss · 4 realized · 277% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.26 | 22.73 | 19.98 | 20.6 – 21.92 |
| 2028 | 21.02 | 23.57 | 18.81 | 19.47 – 22.58 |
| 2030 | 20.78 | 24.07 | 17.93 | 18.42 – 23.14 |
| 2035 | 20.19 | 24.84 | 16.16 | 16 – 24.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.53· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.29typical miss · 25 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed99.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 99.8m | 104.6m | 95.5m | 96.7m – 102.9m |
| 2028 | 99.6m | 104.3m | 95.2m | 92.2m – 106.9m |
| 2030 | 99.3m | 104m | 94.9m | 88m – 110.6m |
| 2035 | 98.6m | 103.3m | 94.3m | 78.2m – 119.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead99.5m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.1mtypical miss · 25 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.01 | 12.98 | -4.47 | 1.72 – 4.31 |
| 2028 | 3.28 | 15 | -9.68 | 0.96 – 5.59 |
| 2030 | 3.54 | 15 | -10 | 0.47 – 6.62 |
| 2035 | 4.21 | 15 | -10 | -0.4 – 8.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.91· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.83typical miss · 25 realized · 301% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.95 | 7.92 | 3.99 | 5.56 – 6.35 |
| 2028 | 5.99 | 9.4 | 2.59 | 5.18 – 6.8 |
| 2030 | 6.01 | 10.4 | 1.62 | 4.86 – 7.16 |
| 2035 | 6.03 | 12.24 | 0 | 4.11 – 7.94 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.92· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.08 | 4.52 | 3.64 | 3.94 – 4.21 |
| 2028 | 3.94 | 4.71 | 3.18 | 3.64 – 4.25 |
| 2030 | 3.81 | 4.8 | 2.82 | 3.36 – 4.27 |
| 2035 | 3.48 | 4.87 | 2.08 | 2.71 – 4.25 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.17· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.31typical miss · 20 realized · 81% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/CEB · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 13.0092 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.801 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2T | 2025 (4.14) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 2697441274241.2505 + -174440842681.3748·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.74 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.51 | 2024 (2.1) |
| 2027 | 8.74 | 2025 (2.37) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 15.4072 + -2.8149·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/CEB?indicator= · API docs
