Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Switzerland: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Switzerland's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.835 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.15 | 2024 (969.9bn) |
Latest observed6.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.09 | 13.51 | -1.34 | 4.47 – 7.7 |
| 2028 | 7.06 | 19.93 | -5.8 | 4.1 – 10.03 |
| 2030 | 8.03 | 24.64 | -8.57 | 4 – 12.07 |
| 2035 | 10.47 | 30 | -13.02 | 4 – 16.94 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.61· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.11typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 79.6 | 88.43 | 71.94 | 77.06 – 82.13 |
| 2028 | 82.68 | 97.99 | 69.42 | 76.53 – 88.84 |
| 2030 | 85.77 | 105.53 | 68.65 | 76.03 – 95.51 |
| 2035 | 93.49 | 121.43 | 69.28 | 74.1 – 112.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead78.68· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.65typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1T | 1.2T | 1T | 1.1T – 1.1T |
| 2028 | 1.2T | 1.3T | 1.1T | 1.1T – 1.3T |
| 2030 | 1.3T | 1.4T | 1.2T | 1.2T – 1.5T |
| 2035 | 1.6T | 1.8T | 1.4T | 1.2T – 1.9T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.2T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±49.3bntypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.49 | 10.05 | -5.94 | 0.03 – 2.94 |
| 2028 | 1.79 | 12 | -10 | -0.76 – 4.35 |
| 2030 | 2.1 | 12 | -10 | -1.26 – 5.47 |
| 2035 | 2.88 | 12 | -10 | -2.1 – 7.85 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.53· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.42typical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed114.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 118.6k | 125.8k | 112.4k | 114.9k – 122.3k |
| 2028 | 128.4k | 140.9k | 117.7k | 118.9k – 137.9k |
| 2030 | 138.3k | 154.3k | 124.4k | 122.6k – 154k |
| 2035 | 162.9k | 185.6k | 143.2k | 129.1k – 196.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead129.6k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.9ktypical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.09 | 43.22 | 36.47 | 38.84 – 41.33 |
| 2028 | 40.06 | 45.49 | 33.79 | 37.1 – 43.02 |
| 2030 | 40.03 | 47.04 | 31.94 | 35.49 – 44.58 |
| 2035 | 39.97 | 49.88 | 28.53 | 31.68 – 48.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead38.28· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.79typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed69.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 70.37 | 77.48 | 63.25 | 68.15 – 72.58 |
| 2028 | 72.88 | 85.2 | 60.56 | 67.49 – 78.28 |
| 2030 | 75.4 | 91.31 | 59.49 | 66.84 – 83.96 |
| 2035 | 81.69 | 104.19 | 59.2 | 64.75 – 98.64 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead70.18· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.28typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.11 | 2.62 | -3.05 | -0.74 – 0.51 |
| 2028 | -1.39 | 3.36 | -5 | -2.5 – -0.27 |
| 2030 | -2.66 | 3.47 | -5 | -4.23 – -1.09 |
| 2035 | -5 | 3.66 | -5 | -5 – -2.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.62· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.81typical miss · 1 realized · 116% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.91 | 27.27 | 24.73 | 25.11 – 26.72 |
| 2028 | 25.64 | 27.62 | 23.93 | 23.75 – 27.54 |
| 2030 | 25.38 | 27.93 | 23.17 | 22.5 – 28.26 |
| 2035 | 24.71 | 28.31 | 21.58 | 19.58 – 29.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.91· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.17typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.1m | 9.5m | 8.7m | 8.8m – 9.3m |
| 2028 | 9.2m | 9.6m | 8.8m | 8.5m – 9.8m |
| 2030 | 9.3m | 9.7m | 8.8m | 8.2m – 10.3m |
| 2035 | 9.5m | 9.9m | 9.1m | 7.5m – 11.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.2m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±61.8ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.24 | 10.41 | -5.64 | 0.08 – 2.41 |
| 2028 | 1.05 | 15 | -10 | -0.99 – 3.09 |
| 2030 | 0.86 | 15 | -10 | -1.79 – 3.5 |
| 2035 | 0.38 | 15 | -10 | -3.41 – 4.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.35· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.58typical miss · 1 realized · 117% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed929.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 942.7bn | 1.2T | 711.1bn | 892.2bn – 993.2bn |
| 2028 | 975bn | 1.4T | 573.8bn | 866.8bn – 1.1T |
| 2030 | 1T | 1.5T | 489.4bn | 847.4bn – 1.2T |
| 2035 | 1.1T | 1.8T | 355.5bn | 801.7bn – 1.4T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead942.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.88 | 18.79 | 8.97 | 12.91 – 14.85 |
| 2028 | 14.85 | 23.35 | 6.34 | 12.83 – 16.86 |
| 2030 | 15.32 | 26.3 | 4.34 | 12.41 – 18.23 |
| 2035 | 15.7 | 31.23 | 0.17 | 10.81 – 20.59 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.66· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1T | 1.4T | 855.5bn | 1T – 1.2T |
| 2028 | 1.2T | 1.6T | 746.8bn | 1.1T – 1.3T |
| 2030 | 1.3T | 1.8T | 694.9bn | 1.1T – 1.4T |
| 2035 | 1.4T | 2.2T | 648.6bn | 1.1T – 1.8T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.1T· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.82 | 5.79 | 3.86 | 4.6 – 5.05 |
| 2028 | 4.72 | 6.39 | 3.05 | 4.24 – 5.2 |
| 2030 | 4.61 | 6.77 | 2.46 | 3.92 – 5.31 |
| 2035 | 4.36 | 7.4 | 1.31 | 3.19 – 5.52 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.7· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.82typical miss · 1 realized · 61% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/CHE · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 6.55 | 2025 (1T) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 0.8991 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.818 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 608.1bn | 2023 (4.04) |
| 2027 | 647.2bn | 2024 (4.34) |
| 2028 | 716.3bn | 2025 (4.87) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 80766815288.3096 + 130419225549.1747·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.753 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.03 | 2025 (4.87) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 4.1835 + -0.8517·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.568 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.46 | 2025 (4.87) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 2.8502 + 1.151·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.522 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.92 | 2025 (1T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 52.5746 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/CHE?indicator= · API docs
