Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
China: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, China's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.977 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 93.54 | 2024 (18.7T) |
Latest observed3.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.86 | 5.33 | 2.38 | 3.49 – 4.22 |
| 2029 | 4.57 | 7.12 | 2.02 | 3.83 – 5.31 |
| 2031 | 5.29 | 8.58 | 1.99 | 4.19 – 6.38 |
| 2036 | 7.07 | 11.73 | 2.41 | 4.99 – 9.15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.13· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.45 | 23 | 20.11 | 20.78 – 22.11 |
| 2028 | 22.21 | 24.89 | 19.88 | 20.56 – 23.85 |
| 2030 | 22.96 | 26.43 | 19.96 | 20.36 – 25.57 |
| 2035 | 24.86 | 29.75 | 20.62 | 19.7 – 30.01 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.33· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.88typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.5T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 21.5T | 23.7T | 19.6T | 20.8T – 22.2T |
| 2029 | 23.2T | 26.9T | 19.9T | 21.5T – 24.9T |
| 2031 | 24.9T | 29.7T | 20.7T | 22T – 27.7T |
| 2036 | 29T | 35.9T | 23.1T | 23T – 35T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.6T· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.96(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.1 | 9.4 | -0.49 | 3.15 – 5.05 |
| 2029 | 3.41 | 12 | -4.54 | 1.72 – 5.11 |
| 2031 | 2.72 | 12 | -7.54 | 0.53 – 4.91 |
| 2036 | 1 | 12 | -10 | -1.95 – 3.95 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.07· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 15.4k | 16.9k | 14k | 14.9k – 15.8k |
| 2029 | 16.6k | 19.2k | 14.3k | 15.4k – 17.8k |
| 2031 | 17.8k | 21.2k | 14.8k | 15.8k – 19.8k |
| 2036 | 20.9k | 25.7k | 16.7k | 16.5k – 25.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.4k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed106.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 112.84 | 117.98 | 106.92 | 109.34 – 116.34 |
| 2029 | 124.72 | 133.32 | 114.81 | 115.5 – 133.95 |
| 2031 | 136.61 | 147.7 | 123.8 | 121.1 – 152.12 |
| 2036 | 166.31 | 182 | 148.21 | 131.81 – 200.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead112.41· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.84 | 18.27 | 15.41 | 16.32 – 17.36 |
| 2028 | 16.75 | 19.23 | 14.27 | 15.51 – 17.99 |
| 2030 | 16.66 | 19.86 | 13.46 | 14.77 – 18.55 |
| 2035 | 16.43 | 20.95 | 11.91 | 13.02 – 19.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.77· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.2typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.68 | 3.78 | -0.56 | 1.19 – 2.17 |
| 2029 | 3.28 | 6.91 | -0.61 | 2.32 – 4.24 |
| 2031 | 4.88 | 9.56 | -0.14 | 3.45 – 6.3 |
| 2036 | 8.87 | 15.49 | 1.77 | 5.98 – 11.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.68· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.65(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 39.3 | 41.37 | 37.52 | 38.09 – 40.52 |
| 2027 | 38.38 | 40.41 | 36.63 | 35.54 – 41.22 |
| 2029 | 37.46 | 40.08 | 35.2 | 33.21 – 41.72 |
| 2034 | 35.16 | 38.86 | 31.96 | 27.87 – 42.46 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead39.77· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.3bn | 1.4bn – 1.4bn |
| 2029 | 1.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.3bn | 1.3bn – 1.5bn |
| 2031 | 1.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.3bn | 1.2bn – 1.5bn |
| 2036 | 1.4bn | 1.4bn | 1.3bn | 1.1bn – 1.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.02 | 7.08 | 3.47 | 4.68 – 5.36 |
| 2028 | 5.02 | 8.6 | 2.34 | 4.34 – 5.71 |
| 2030 | 5.03 | 9.64 | 1.57 | 4.05 – 6 |
| 2035 | 5.03 | 11.56 | 0.14 | 3.41 – 6.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.02· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.69typical miss · 1 realized · 14% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.5T | 3.6T | 3.3T | 3.4T – 3.6T |
| 2028 | 3.6T | 3.9T | 3.3T | 3.3T – 3.8T |
| 2030 | 3.7T | 4.1T | 3.3T | 3.3T – 4.1T |
| 2035 | 4T | 4.5T | 3.4T | 3.1T – 4.8T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.5T· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.27 | 14.87 | 9.67 | 11.68 – 12.86 |
| 2028 | 12.66 | 17.16 | 8.16 | 11.36 – 13.96 |
| 2030 | 12.85 | 18.66 | 7.04 | 10.93 – 14.77 |
| 2035 | 13 | 21.22 | 4.78 | 9.66 – 16.34 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.75· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.8T | 4.1T | 3.6T | 3.7T – 4T |
| 2028 | 4T | 4.4T | 3.6T | 3.7T – 4.3T |
| 2030 | 4.3T | 4.8T | 3.7T | 3.8T – 4.7T |
| 2035 | 4.8T | 5.5T | 4T | 3.8T – 5.8T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.8T· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.15 | 5.74 | 4.55 | 4.97 – 5.32 |
| 2029 | 5.24 | 6.27 | 4.2 | 4.83 – 5.64 |
| 2031 | 5.33 | 6.66 | 3.99 | 4.69 – 5.96 |
| 2036 | 5.55 | 7.44 | 3.66 | 4.37 – 6.73 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.17· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/CHN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 96.66 | 2025 (19.5T) |
| 2029 | 102.17 | 2026 (20.9T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 17.391 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.95 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 26.9T | 2026 (106.9) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -3241640645391.3975 + 281960901024.6685·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.734 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.47 | 2025 (99.2) |
| 2028 | 1.76 | 2026 (106.9) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 11.6896 + -0.0929·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.685 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.5 | 2024 (0.22) |
| 2028 | 4.51 | 2025 (0.06) |
| 2029 | 4.41 | 2026 (1.2) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 4.5141 + -0.0874·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.682 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.78 | 2026 (4.4) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -1.9388 + 0.6178·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.61 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.69 | 2026 (4.4) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -5.6262 + 1.1218·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/CHN?indicator= · API docs
