Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
China: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, China's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.98 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 88.9 | 2023 (18.3T) |
Latest observed4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.09 | 5.33 | 2.85 | 3.77 – 4.41 |
| 2028 | 4.87 | 7.02 | 2.71 | 4.19 – 5.54 |
| 2030 | 5.65 | 8.43 | 2.86 | 4.63 – 6.67 |
| 2035 | 7.59 | 11.53 | 3.66 | 5.58 – 9.61 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.7· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.09typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.45 | 23 | 20.11 | 20.78 – 22.11 |
| 2028 | 22.21 | 24.89 | 19.88 | 20.56 – 23.85 |
| 2030 | 22.96 | 26.43 | 19.96 | 20.36 – 25.57 |
| 2035 | 24.86 | 29.75 | 20.62 | 19.7 – 30.01 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.33· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.88typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.5T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.9T | 22.1T | 18.1T | 19.3T – 20.5T |
| 2028 | 21T | 24.8T | 17.8T | 19.5T – 22.6T |
| 2030 | 22.2T | 27T | 18T | 19.7T – 24.7T |
| 2035 | 25T | 31.8T | 19.1T | 19.8T – 30.2T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.4T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.6Ttypical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.96(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.86 | 12 | -2.06 | 3.45 – 6.27 |
| 2028 | 4.68 | 12 | -7.32 | 2.15 – 7.21 |
| 2030 | 4.5 | 12 | -10 | 1.16 – 7.83 |
| 2035 | 4.04 | 12 | -10 | -0.82 – 8.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.19· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.36typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.2k | 15.7k | 12.9k | 13.7k – 14.6k |
| 2028 | 15k | 17.6k | 12.7k | 13.9k – 16.1k |
| 2030 | 15.8k | 19.2k | 12.9k | 14k – 17.6k |
| 2035 | 17.9k | 22.7k | 13.7k | 14.2k – 21.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed104.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 103.99 | 108.76 | 98.48 | 100.76 – 107.21 |
| 2028 | 114.77 | 123.03 | 105.22 | 106.28 – 123.26 |
| 2030 | 125.54 | 136.22 | 113.23 | 111.29 – 139.8 |
| 2035 | 152.48 | 167.58 | 135.07 | 120.85 – 184.12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead109.74· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.41typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.84 | 18.27 | 15.41 | 16.32 – 17.36 |
| 2028 | 16.75 | 19.23 | 14.27 | 15.51 – 17.99 |
| 2030 | 16.66 | 19.86 | 13.46 | 14.77 – 18.55 |
| 2035 | 16.43 | 20.95 | 11.91 | 13.02 – 19.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.77· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.2typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.04 | 2.07 | -2.13 | -0.43 – 0.51 |
| 2028 | -0.18 | 3.33 | -3.95 | -1.01 – 0.64 |
| 2030 | -0.4 | 4.13 | -5 | -1.49 – 0.68 |
| 2035 | -0.96 | 5.45 | -5 | -2.54 – 0.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.4· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.96typical miss · 1 realized · 96% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.65(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 39.3 | 41.37 | 37.52 | 38.09 – 40.52 |
| 2027 | 38.38 | 40.41 | 36.63 | 35.54 – 41.22 |
| 2029 | 37.46 | 40.08 | 35.2 | 33.21 – 41.72 |
| 2034 | 35.16 | 38.86 | 31.96 | 27.87 – 42.46 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead39.77· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.3bn | 1.4bn – 1.5bn |
| 2028 | 1.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.3bn | 1.3bn – 1.5bn |
| 2030 | 1.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.3bn | 1.2bn – 1.6bn |
| 2035 | 1.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.3bn | 1.1bn – 1.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5mtypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.02 | 7.08 | 3.47 | 4.68 – 5.36 |
| 2028 | 5.02 | 8.6 | 2.34 | 4.34 – 5.71 |
| 2030 | 5.03 | 9.64 | 1.57 | 4.05 – 6 |
| 2035 | 5.03 | 11.56 | 0.14 | 3.41 – 6.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.02· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.69typical miss · 1 realized · 14% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.5T | 3.6T | 3.3T | 3.4T – 3.6T |
| 2028 | 3.6T | 3.9T | 3.3T | 3.3T – 3.8T |
| 2030 | 3.7T | 4.1T | 3.3T | 3.3T – 4.1T |
| 2035 | 4T | 4.5T | 3.4T | 3.1T – 4.8T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.5T· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.27 | 14.87 | 9.67 | 11.68 – 12.86 |
| 2028 | 12.66 | 17.16 | 8.16 | 11.36 – 13.96 |
| 2030 | 12.85 | 18.66 | 7.04 | 10.93 – 14.77 |
| 2035 | 13 | 21.22 | 4.78 | 9.66 – 16.34 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.75· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.8T | 4.1T | 3.6T | 3.7T – 4T |
| 2028 | 4T | 4.4T | 3.6T | 3.7T – 4.3T |
| 2030 | 4.3T | 4.8T | 3.7T | 3.8T – 4.7T |
| 2035 | 4.8T | 5.5T | 4T | 3.8T – 5.8T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.8T· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.55 | 5.15 | 3.96 | 4.39 – 4.72 |
| 2028 | 4.43 | 5.46 | 3.4 | 4.06 – 4.8 |
| 2030 | 4.31 | 5.64 | 2.98 | 3.76 – 4.86 |
| 2035 | 4.01 | 5.89 | 2.13 | 3.08 – 4.94 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.17· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.55typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/CHN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 90.68 | 2024 (18.7T) |
| 2028 | 93.66 | 2025 (19.5T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 18.0369 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.952 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.7T | 2025 (98.6) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -3836635867889.738 + 300028301791.6157·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.718 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.94 | 2024 (90.5) |
| 2027 | 2.14 | 2025 (98.6) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 11.8735 + -0.0987·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.706 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.91 | 2025 (4.96) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -2.35 + 0.6576·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.68 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.47 | 2023 (0.23) |
| 2027 | 4.47 | 2024 (0.22) |
| 2028 | 4.48 | 2025 (0.06) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 4.4871 + -0.0854·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.608 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.14 | 2025 (4.96) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -5.7647 + 1.1341·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/CHN?indicator= · API docs
