Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
DR Congo: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2033, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, DR Congo's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.913 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.5 | 2025 (20.4) |
Latest observed-1.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.89 | -1.07 | -6.71 | -4.53 – -3.25 |
| 2028 | -4.27 | 0.61 | -9.15 | -5.47 – -3.07 |
| 2030 | -4.65 | 1.65 | -10.94 | -6.3 – -2.99 |
| 2035 | -5.59 | 3.31 | -14.5 | -8.31 – -2.88 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.82· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.99typical miss · 1 realized · 105% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45.66 | 54.32 | 38.15 | 43.69 – 47.63 |
| 2028 | 50.15 | 65.15 | 37.14 | 45.6 – 54.7 |
| 2030 | 54.63 | 74.01 | 37.84 | 47.5 – 61.77 |
| 2035 | 65.85 | 93.25 | 42.11 | 51.4 – 80.3 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead44.52· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.8typical miss · 1 realized · 18% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed91bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 96bn | 109bn | 84.7bn | 92.9bn – 99.1bn |
| 2028 | 109.2bn | 131.8bn | 89.6bn | 101.1bn – 117.3bn |
| 2030 | 122.4bn | 151.6bn | 97.1bn | 108.5bn – 136.3bn |
| 2035 | 155.5bn | 196.8bn | 119.7bn | 123.2bn – 187.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead132.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±26.3bntypical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.17 | 11.25 | -0.1 | 4.08 – 6.27 |
| 2028 | 3.96 | 12 | -5.17 | 2.01 – 5.9 |
| 2030 | 2.74 | 12 | -9.05 | 0.25 – 5.22 |
| 2035 | -0.3 | 12 | -10 | -3.67 – 3.06 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.24· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.03typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed806.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 835.44 | 957.95 | 729.28 | 807.49 – 863.39 |
| 2028 | 916.44 | 1.1k | 732.55 | 847.19 – 985.69 |
| 2030 | 997.43 | 1.3k | 760.04 | 884.18 – 1.1k |
| 2035 | 1.2k | 1.6k | 864.19 | 951.02 – 1.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.2k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±276typical miss · 1 realized · 25% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.69 | 24.49 | 18.47 | 20.92 – 22.47 |
| 2028 | 24.28 | 29.12 | 18.71 | 22.37 – 26.19 |
| 2030 | 26.87 | 33.11 | 19.67 | 23.76 – 29.98 |
| 2035 | 33.35 | 42.17 | 23.16 | 26.43 – 40.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.55· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.01typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45.93 | 55.34 | 36.53 | 43.76 – 48.11 |
| 2028 | 49.96 | 66.25 | 33.67 | 45.07 – 54.85 |
| 2030 | 53.99 | 75.02 | 32.96 | 46.45 – 61.53 |
| 2035 | 64.06 | 93.81 | 34.32 | 49.26 – 78.87 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead44.69· skill-weighted across models
Track record±10.21typical miss · 1 realized · 23% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.89(2016)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2 | 16.84 | -5 | 0.12 – 6.27 |
| 2028 | -5 | 18.64 | -5 | -5 – 0.48 |
| 2030 | -5 | 25.51 | -5 | -5 – 2.16 |
| 2035 | -5 | 38.15 | -5 | -5 – 5.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.61· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.1typical miss · 1 realized · 26% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.86 | 38.89 | 18.29 | 25.83 – 29.88 |
| 2028 | 25.89 | 45.01 | 9.32 | 21.92 – 29.86 |
| 2030 | 23.92 | 48.6 | 2.53 | 18.48 – 29.36 |
| 2035 | 19 | 53.9 | 0 | 10.98 – 27.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.12· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.02typical miss · 1 realized · 14% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed112.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 111.9m | 117.2m | 107m | 108.5m – 115.4m |
| 2028 | 115.8m | 121.3m | 110.8m | 107.3m – 124.4m |
| 2030 | 119.8m | 125.4m | 114.5m | 106.2m – 133.4m |
| 2035 | 129.5m | 135.7m | 123.9m | 102.7m – 156.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead112.7m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.9mtypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.41 | 6.12 | -0.38 | 1.9 – 2.91 |
| 2028 | 2.37 | 8.8 | -2.45 | 1.45 – 3.29 |
| 2030 | 2.33 | 10.64 | -3.89 | 1.11 – 3.56 |
| 2035 | 2.24 | 13.99 | -6.56 | 0.42 – 4.07 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.88· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.37typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6bn | 7.9bn | 4.2bn | 5.7bn – 6.4bn |
| 2026 | 8.3bn | 11.5bn | 5bn | 7.4bn – 9.2bn |
| 2028 | 10.5bn | 14.7bn | 6.3bn | 9bn – 12bn |
| 2033 | 16bn | 22bn | 10.1bn | 12.6bn – 19.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.69(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1.48 | 2.36 | 0.61 | 1.33 – 1.64 |
| 2026 | 1.24 | 2.75 | 0 | 0.95 – 1.53 |
| 2028 | 1.12 | 3.07 | 0 | 0.73 – 1.51 |
| 2033 | 1.02 | 3.79 | 0 | 0.43 – 1.61 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.79· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6bn | 7.9bn | 4.2bn | 5.7bn – 6.4bn |
| 2026 | 8.3bn | 11.5bn | 5bn | 7.4bn – 9.2bn |
| 2028 | 10.5bn | 14.7bn | 6.3bn | 9bn – 12bn |
| 2033 | 16bn | 22bn | 10.1bn | 12.6bn – 19.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.23 | 4.78 | 3.67 | 4.07 – 4.38 |
| 2028 | 3.81 | 4.77 | 2.85 | 3.48 – 4.14 |
| 2030 | 3.39 | 4.64 | 2.15 | 2.93 – 3.86 |
| 2035 | 2.35 | 4.11 | 0.59 | 1.71 – 3 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.32· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/COD · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 4.7228 + -0.011·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.885 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 48.9bn | 2023 (4.47) |
| 2027 | 47.5bn | 2024 (4.42) |
| 2028 | 47.9bn | 2025 (4.43) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -81997085938.9539 + 29298220996.5224·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.866 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.6 | 2025 (4.43) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 331.274 + -68.7127·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.706 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.95 | 2025 (20.4) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -4.9145 + 0.0471·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/COD?indicator= · API docs
