Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
DR Congo: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2033, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, DR Congo's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.912 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.5 | 2025 (20.2) |
Latest observed-2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -2.09 | 0.96 | -5.15 | -2.75 – -1.43 |
| 2029 | -2.28 | 3.02 | -7.57 | -3.46 – -1.09 |
| 2031 | -2.46 | 4.37 | -9.29 | -4.05 – -0.87 |
| 2036 | -2.92 | 6.74 | -12.58 | -5.36 – -0.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.93· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45.66 | 54.32 | 38.15 | 43.69 – 47.63 |
| 2028 | 50.15 | 65.15 | 37.14 | 45.6 – 54.7 |
| 2030 | 54.63 | 74.01 | 37.84 | 47.5 – 61.77 |
| 2035 | 65.85 | 93.25 | 42.11 | 51.4 – 80.3 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead44.52· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.8typical miss · 1 realized · 18% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed91bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 134.8bn | 156.7bn | 115.8bn | 130bn – 139.5bn |
| 2029 | 163.6bn | 201.5bn | 130.7bn | 151.2bn – 176bn |
| 2031 | 192.4bn | 241.4bn | 149.9bn | 170.5bn – 214.2bn |
| 2036 | 264.4bn | 333.7bn | 204.3bn | 209.6bn – 319.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead133.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.73 | 9.35 | 2.59 | 5.03 – 6.43 |
| 2029 | 5.26 | 11.54 | -0.18 | 3.96 – 6.56 |
| 2031 | 4.79 | 12 | -2.23 | 3.06 – 6.53 |
| 2036 | 3.63 | 12 | -6.31 | 1.14 – 6.12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.11· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed806.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.2k | 1.4k | 1k | 1.2k – 1.3k |
| 2029 | 1.4k | 1.8k | 1.1k | 1.3k – 1.6k |
| 2031 | 1.7k | 2.2k | 1.2k | 1.5k – 1.9k |
| 2036 | 2.3k | 3k | 1.7k | 1.8k – 2.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.2k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 26.21 | 29.02 | 22.98 | 25.36 – 27.06 |
| 2029 | 29.44 | 34.29 | 23.84 | 27.26 – 31.62 |
| 2031 | 32.67 | 38.93 | 25.44 | 28.96 – 36.38 |
| 2036 | 40.74 | 49.6 | 30.52 | 32.29 – 49.19 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.41· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45.93 | 55.34 | 36.53 | 43.76 – 48.11 |
| 2028 | 49.96 | 66.25 | 33.67 | 45.07 – 54.85 |
| 2030 | 53.99 | 75.02 | 32.96 | 46.45 – 61.53 |
| 2035 | 64.06 | 93.81 | 34.32 | 49.26 – 78.87 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead44.69· skill-weighted across models
Track record±10.21typical miss · 1 realized · 23% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.89(2016)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.56 | 16.44 | -5 | -0.56 – 5.68 |
| 2029 | -3.18 | 20.86 | -5 | -5 – 2.3 |
| 2031 | -5 | 26.03 | -5 | -5 – 2.28 |
| 2036 | -5 | 38.89 | -5 | -5 – 5.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.35· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.86 | 38.89 | 18.29 | 25.83 – 29.88 |
| 2028 | 25.89 | 45.01 | 9.32 | 21.92 – 29.86 |
| 2030 | 23.92 | 48.6 | 2.53 | 18.48 – 29.36 |
| 2035 | 19 | 53.9 | 0 | 10.98 – 27.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.12· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.02typical miss · 1 realized · 14% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed112.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 108.5m | 113.6m | 103.7m | 105.1m – 111.8m |
| 2029 | 105.4m | 111.6m | 99.6m | 97.6m – 113.2m |
| 2031 | 102.3m | 110.3m | 94.8m | 90.7m – 113.9m |
| 2036 | 94.5m | 105.9m | 83.9m | 74.9m – 114.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead112.7m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.41 | 6.12 | -0.38 | 1.9 – 2.91 |
| 2028 | 2.37 | 8.8 | -2.45 | 1.45 – 3.29 |
| 2030 | 2.33 | 10.64 | -3.89 | 1.11 – 3.56 |
| 2035 | 2.24 | 13.99 | -6.56 | 0.42 – 4.07 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.88· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.37typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6bn | 7.9bn | 4.2bn | 5.7bn – 6.4bn |
| 2026 | 8.3bn | 11.5bn | 5bn | 7.4bn – 9.2bn |
| 2028 | 10.5bn | 14.7bn | 6.3bn | 9bn – 12bn |
| 2033 | 16bn | 22bn | 10.1bn | 12.6bn – 19.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.69(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1.48 | 2.36 | 0.61 | 1.33 – 1.64 |
| 2026 | 1.24 | 2.75 | 0 | 0.95 – 1.53 |
| 2028 | 1.12 | 3.07 | 0 | 0.73 – 1.51 |
| 2033 | 1.02 | 3.79 | 0 | 0.43 – 1.61 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.79· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6bn | 7.9bn | 4.2bn | 5.7bn – 6.4bn |
| 2026 | 8.3bn | 11.5bn | 5bn | 7.4bn – 9.2bn |
| 2028 | 10.5bn | 14.7bn | 6.3bn | 9bn – 12bn |
| 2033 | 16bn | 22bn | 10.1bn | 12.6bn – 19.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.23 | 4.78 | 3.67 | 4.07 – 4.38 |
| 2028 | 3.81 | 4.77 | 2.85 | 3.48 – 4.14 |
| 2030 | 3.39 | 4.64 | 2.15 | 2.93 – 3.86 |
| 2035 | 2.35 | 4.11 | 0.59 | 1.71 – 3 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.32· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/COD · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 4.45 | 2026 (24.6) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 4.7188 + -0.011·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.807 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 51.5bn | 2024 (4.42) |
| 2028 | 51.9bn | 2025 (4.43) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -90879613114.6592 + 32202852482.7162·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.7 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.64 | 2026 (24.6) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -4.7815 + 0.0462·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/COD?indicator= · API docs
