Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Colombia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Colombia's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.724 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55.27 | 2023 (366.9bn) |
Latest observed-2.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.04 | 1.33 | -5.41 | -2.76 – -1.32 |
| 2028 | -1.33 | 4.51 | -7.16 | -2.58 – -0.07 |
| 2030 | -0.61 | 6.92 | -8.15 | -2.23 – 1 |
| 2035 | 1.17 | 11.82 | -9.48 | -1.19 – 3.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-2.66· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.56typical miss · 1 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.12 | 20.2 | 10.72 | 14.16 – 16.09 |
| 2028 | 15.4 | 24.2 | 7.78 | 13.41 – 17.4 |
| 2030 | 15.68 | 27.04 | 5.84 | 12.8 – 18.56 |
| 2035 | 16.38 | 32.44 | 2.46 | 11.46 – 21.29 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.26· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.5typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed457.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 482.5bn | 555.6bn | 419.2bn | 466.1bn – 498.9bn |
| 2028 | 545.1bn | 671.6bn | 435.4bn | 503.8bn – 586.3bn |
| 2030 | 607.6bn | 771bn | 466bn | 538.6bn – 676.6bn |
| 2035 | 764bn | 995bn | 563.7bn | 605.5bn – 922.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead606.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±90.2bntypical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.36 | 12 | -10 | 0.34 – 6.38 |
| 2028 | 4.8 | 12 | -10 | -0.58 – 10.17 |
| 2030 | 6.23 | 12 | -10 | -0.91 – 12 |
| 2035 | 9.82 | 12 | -10 | -1.14 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.29· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.16typical miss · 1 realized · 53% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9k | 10.4k | 7.7k | 8.6k – 9.3k |
| 2028 | 10k | 12.5k | 7.8k | 9.2k – 10.8k |
| 2030 | 11k | 14.2k | 8.2k | 9.7k – 12.3k |
| 2035 | 13.5k | 18.1k | 9.6k | 10.7k – 16.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.3k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.8ktypical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed59.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 61.23 | 71.34 | 49.56 | 58.69 – 63.76 |
| 2028 | 63.89 | 81.4 | 43.68 | 58.12 – 69.65 |
| 2030 | 66.54 | 89.15 | 40.45 | 57.74 – 75.34 |
| 2035 | 73.18 | 105.16 | 36.29 | 56.56 – 89.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead60.09· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.73typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.39 | 26.37 | 14.41 | 19.15 – 21.63 |
| 2028 | 20.4 | 30.76 | 10.04 | 17.83 – 22.96 |
| 2030 | 20.41 | 33.78 | 7.04 | 16.73 – 24.09 |
| 2035 | 20.43 | 39.34 | 1.52 | 14.27 – 26.6 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.26· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.98typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.92 | 12.79 | -3.51 | 3.1 – 6.74 |
| 2028 | 2.86 | 16.49 | -5 | -0.29 – 6.02 |
| 2030 | 0.81 | 18.4 | -5 | -3.17 – 4.79 |
| 2035 | -4.32 | 20.55 | -5 | -5 – 1.88 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.98· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.08typical miss · 1 realized · 18% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.3 | 18.05 | 12.91 | 14.66 – 15.93 |
| 2028 | 13.54 | 18.31 | 9.4 | 12.21 – 14.87 |
| 2030 | 11.78 | 17.95 | 6.44 | 9.96 – 13.61 |
| 2035 | 7.39 | 16.11 | 0 | 4.97 – 9.82 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.28· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.12typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 53.3m | 55.8m | 50.9m | 51.6m – 54.9m |
| 2028 | 53.9m | 56.4m | 51.5m | 49.9m – 57.8m |
| 2030 | 54.5m | 57m | 52.1m | 48.3m – 60.6m |
| 2035 | 55.9m | 58.6m | 53.5m | 44.3m – 67.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead53.9m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±131.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.58 | 9.07 | -7.82 | -1.81 – 0.64 |
| 2028 | -1.89 | 14.83 | -10 | -4.06 – 0.29 |
| 2030 | -3.19 | 15 | -10 | -6.14 – -0.23 |
| 2035 | -6.44 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -1.6 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.42· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.72typical miss · 1 realized · 7608% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 67.2bn | 72.1bn | 62.3bn | 65.1bn – 69.3bn |
| 2028 | 72.3bn | 80.8bn | 63.9bn | 67bn – 77.7bn |
| 2030 | 77.5bn | 88.4bn | 66.5bn | 68.7bn – 86.2bn |
| 2035 | 90.2bn | 105.7bn | 74.7bn | 71.5bn – 109bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead67.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.27(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.44 | 11.23 | 3.64 | 6.74 – 8.14 |
| 2028 | 7.64 | 14.22 | 1.07 | 6.27 – 9.01 |
| 2030 | 7.74 | 16.23 | 0 | 5.82 – 9.66 |
| 2035 | 7.82 | 19.82 | 0 | 4.73 – 10.91 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.18· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 67.9bn | 72.7bn | 63.1bn | 65.8bn – 70bn |
| 2028 | 73.2bn | 81.5bn | 64.9bn | 67.8bn – 78.6bn |
| 2030 | 78.5bn | 89.2bn | 67.7bn | 69.5bn – 87.4bn |
| 2035 | 91.6bn | 106.8bn | 76.4bn | 72.6bn – 110.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead67.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.8 | 9.02 | 4.57 | 6.35 – 7.25 |
| 2028 | 3.81 | 7.67 | 0 | 3.04 – 4.58 |
| 2030 | 0.83 | 5.8 | 0 | 0 – 1.67 |
| 2035 | 0 | 7.04 | 0 | 0 – 1.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.54· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.2typical miss · 1 realized · 24% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/COL · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 59.34 | 2024 (420.5bn) |
| 2028 | 62.14 | 2025 (457.4bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 27.4069 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.653 over 63 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.54 | 2023 (366.9bn) |
| 2027 | -1.09 | 2024 (420.5bn) |
| 2028 | -2.9 | 2025 (457.4bn) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 19.5355 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.615 over 63 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 152bn | 2023 (11.74) |
| 2027 | 198.4bn | 2024 (6.61) |
| 2028 | 211.6bn | 2025 (5.14) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 258169367996.2646 + -9047133751.1083·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/COL?indicator= · API docs
