Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Comoros: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2033, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Comoros's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.859 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.63 | 2025 (1.8bn) |
Latest observed-6.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.19 | 1.89 | -2.26 | -0.63 – 0.25 |
| 2028 | 0.44 | 4.03 | -3.15 | -0.34 – 1.22 |
| 2030 | 1.07 | 5.7 | -3.57 | 0.03 – 2.1 |
| 2035 | 2.63 | 9.19 | -3.93 | 0.87 – 4.39 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-6.52· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.91typical miss · 1 realized · 97% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.99 | 16.26 | 2.69 | 7.81 – 10.17 |
| 2028 | 8.37 | 20.96 | 0 | 6.17 – 10.57 |
| 2030 | 7.75 | 24.01 | 0 | 4.81 – 10.69 |
| 2035 | 6.2 | 29.19 | 0 | 1.92 – 10.47 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.62· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.35typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.9bn | 2.1bn | 1.8bn | 1.9bn – 2bn |
| 2028 | 2.2bn | 2.5bn | 1.9bn | 2bn – 2.4bn |
| 2030 | 2.5bn | 2.9bn | 2.1bn | 2.2bn – 2.8bn |
| 2035 | 3.2bn | 3.7bn | 2.7bn | 2.5bn – 3.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±200.2mtypical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.12 | 5.69 | 2.75 | 3.79 – 4.45 |
| 2028 | 5 | 7.73 | 2.63 | 4.3 – 5.69 |
| 2030 | 5.88 | 9.4 | 2.82 | 4.82 – 6.93 |
| 2035 | 8.07 | 12 | 3.76 | 5.95 – 10.19 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.94· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.22typical miss · 1 realized · 42% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.2k | 2.4k | 2k | 2.1k – 2.2k |
| 2028 | 2.4k | 2.8k | 2.1k | 2.2k – 2.6k |
| 2030 | 2.7k | 3.1k | 2.3k | 2.4k – 3k |
| 2035 | 3.3k | 3.9k | 2.8k | 2.6k – 4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.9k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±300.6typical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.45 | 36.53 | 27.75 | 31.31 – 33.6 |
| 2028 | 36.36 | 43.41 | 28.22 | 33.53 – 39.19 |
| 2030 | 40.26 | 49.37 | 29.75 | 35.64 – 44.89 |
| 2035 | 50.03 | 62.91 | 35.16 | 39.65 – 60.4 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead36.06· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.25typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.16 | 37.98 | 26.33 | 30.75 – 33.56 |
| 2028 | 33.29 | 43.38 | 23.21 | 30.15 – 36.44 |
| 2030 | 34.43 | 47.45 | 21.41 | 29.68 – 39.18 |
| 2035 | 37.28 | 55.69 | 18.86 | 28.49 – 46.06 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead31.93· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.04typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.25(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.84 | 15.29 | -5 | 0.03 – 5.65 |
| 2028 | 0.32 | 21.88 | -5 | -4.51 – 5.14 |
| 2030 | -2.21 | 25.64 | -5 | -5 – 4.14 |
| 2035 | -5 | 34.38 | -5 | -5 – 4.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.88· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.16typical miss · 1 realized · 29% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.75 | 14.64 | 9.24 | 11.15 – 12.35 |
| 2028 | 11.48 | 16.48 | 7.14 | 10.21 – 12.74 |
| 2030 | 11.2 | 17.66 | 5.6 | 9.38 – 13.02 |
| 2035 | 10.52 | 19.66 | 2.6 | 7.53 – 13.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.7· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.46typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed882.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 878.5k | 920k | 840k | 851.3k – 905.8k |
| 2028 | 896.4k | 938.7k | 857k | 830.1k – 962.7k |
| 2030 | 914.2k | 957.4k | 874.1k | 810.4k – 1m |
| 2035 | 958.8k | 1m | 916.7k | 759.9k – 1.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead946.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±51.5ktypical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.35 | 3.76 | -0.46 | 1.03 – 1.67 |
| 2028 | 2.85 | 7.02 | -0.29 | 2.19 – 3.5 |
| 2030 | 4.34 | 9.73 | 0.3 | 3.32 – 5.36 |
| 2035 | 8.08 | 15 | 2.36 | 5.84 – 10.33 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.31· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.23typical miss · 1 realized · 164% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed406.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 432.1m | 521m | 343.2m | 411.6m – 452.6m |
| 2028 | 496.6m | 650.6m | 342.7m | 449.2m – 544m |
| 2030 | 561.2m | 759.9m | 362.4m | 485.9m – 636.5m |
| 2035 | 722.5m | 1bn | 441.5m | 563.9m – 881.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead432m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.61(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 7.66 | 11.4 | 3.93 | 6.97 – 8.36 |
| 2026 | 7.73 | 14.2 | 1.25 | 6.37 – 9.09 |
| 2028 | 7.76 | 16.12 | 0 | 5.86 – 9.66 |
| 2033 | 7.78 | 19.61 | 0 | 4.73 – 10.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.76· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed409.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 434.9m | 524.1m | 345.7m | 414.3m – 455.5m |
| 2028 | 500.2m | 654.7m | 345.6m | 452.5m – 547.8m |
| 2030 | 565.4m | 764.9m | 365.9m | 489.7m – 641.2m |
| 2035 | 728.6m | 1bn | 446.4m | 568.8m – 888.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead434.7m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.68 | 4.06 | 3.29 | 3.56 – 3.79 |
| 2028 | 3.39 | 4.05 | 2.73 | 3.12 – 3.65 |
| 2030 | 3.1 | 3.95 | 2.25 | 2.72 – 3.48 |
| 2035 | 2.38 | 3.59 | 1.18 | 1.82 – 2.95 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.74· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/COM · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 4.8301 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.835 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.5bn | 2025 (3.82) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 6066136260.8511 + -1208253056.7259·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.799 over 42 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -21.06 | 2024 (1.6bn) |
| 2027 | -38.32 | 2025 (1.8bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 114.5828 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.684 over 41 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.19 | 2025 (30.5) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -0.2542 + -0.0636·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/COM?indicator= · API docs
