Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Cabo Verde: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Cabo Verde's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.795 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 131.09 | 2023 (2.5bn) |
Latest observed-1.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.87 | 19.49 | -9.75 | 1.8 – 7.93 |
| 2028 | 7.8 | 30 | -17.53 | 2.25 – 13.34 |
| 2030 | 10.73 | 30 | -21.96 | 3.2 – 18.26 |
| 2035 | 18.05 | 30 | -28.18 | 5.73 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.08· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.77typical miss · 1 realized · 356% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.09 | 62.96 | 24 | 38.43 – 45.74 |
| 2028 | 42.31 | 78.47 | 10.98 | 35.12 – 49.51 |
| 2030 | 42.54 | 89.21 | 2.09 | 32.47 – 52.61 |
| 2035 | 43.1 | 109.11 | 0 | 26.77 – 59.42 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead41.86· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.14typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2bn | 3.7bn | 2.8bn | 3.1bn – 3.3bn |
| 2028 | 3.6bn | 4.5bn | 2.9bn | 3.4bn – 3.9bn |
| 2030 | 4.1bn | 5.2bn | 3.1bn | 3.6bn – 4.5bn |
| 2035 | 5.1bn | 6.7bn | 3.7bn | 4bn – 6.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±166mtypical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.95 | 12 | -10 | 3.3 – 12 |
| 2028 | 11.58 | 12 | -10 | 3.2 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 0.94 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -4.21 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.36· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.95typical miss · 1 realized · 59% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.1k | 7k | 5.3k | 5.9k – 6.3k |
| 2028 | 6.8k | 8.5k | 5.4k | 6.3k – 7.4k |
| 2030 | 7.6k | 9.7k | 5.7k | 6.7k – 8.4k |
| 2035 | 9.4k | 12.5k | 6.8k | 7.5k – 11.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.9k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±468.08typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed109.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 117.29 | 143.57 | 86.96 | 111.37 – 123.21 |
| 2028 | 121.07 | 166.59 | 68.54 | 108.25 – 133.88 |
| 2030 | 124.85 | 183.62 | 57.03 | 105.82 – 143.87 |
| 2035 | 134.29 | 217.41 | 38.39 | 100.02 – 168.56 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead110.3· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.39typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.79 | 58.02 | 47.56 | 51.15 – 54.43 |
| 2028 | 51.66 | 60.72 | 42.61 | 47.8 – 55.53 |
| 2030 | 50.54 | 62.23 | 38.85 | 44.71 – 56.37 |
| 2035 | 47.73 | 64.25 | 31.2 | 37.56 – 57.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead52.9· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.13typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.16 | 10.45 | -4.64 | 1.5 – 4.83 |
| 2028 | 4.98 | 17.59 | -5 | 1.94 – 8.01 |
| 2030 | 6.79 | 23.07 | -5 | 2.64 – 10.94 |
| 2035 | 11.32 | 34.35 | -5 | 4.41 – 18.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.74· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.96typical miss · 1 realized · 164% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed527.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 526.6k | 551.5k | 503.5k | 510.3k – 543k |
| 2028 | 529.3k | 554.4k | 506.1k | 490.2k – 568.5k |
| 2030 | 532k | 557.2k | 508.7k | 471.6k – 592.4k |
| 2035 | 538.8k | 564.2k | 515.1k | 427k – 650.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead518.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±9.6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.69(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.09 | 15 | -10 | 2.4 – 7.78 |
| 2028 | 6.27 | 15 | -10 | 1.45 – 11.1 |
| 2030 | 7.46 | 15 | -10 | 1.02 – 13.89 |
| 2035 | 10.41 | 15 | -10 | 0.49 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.34· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.06typical miss · 1 realized · 23% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4bn | 1.7bn | 1bn | 1.3bn – 1.4bn |
| 2028 | 1.6bn | 2.2bn | 1bn | 1.5bn – 1.8bn |
| 2030 | 1.9bn | 2.6bn | 1.1bn | 1.6bn – 2.1bn |
| 2035 | 2.5bn | 3.6bn | 1.5bn | 2bn – 3.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.69(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.12 | 10.66 | 5.58 | 7.6 – 8.63 |
| 2028 | 7.43 | 11.83 | 3.04 | 6.4 – 8.46 |
| 2030 | 7.1 | 12.78 | 1.42 | 5.66 – 8.54 |
| 2035 | 6.83 | 14.86 | 0 | 4.51 – 9.15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.84· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.3bn | 1.7bn | 1bn | 1.3bn – 1.4bn |
| 2028 | 1.6bn | 2.2bn | 1bn | 1.4bn – 1.7bn |
| 2030 | 1.8bn | 2.6bn | 1.1bn | 1.6bn – 2.1bn |
| 2035 | 2.4bn | 3.4bn | 1.3bn | 1.8bn – 2.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.37 | 12.62 | 10.11 | 10.99 – 11.74 |
| 2028 | 10.22 | 12.39 | 8.05 | 9.4 – 11.04 |
| 2030 | 9.07 | 11.87 | 6.27 | 7.92 – 10.23 |
| 2035 | 6.21 | 10.17 | 2.25 | 4.61 – 7.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.75· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.87typical miss · 1 realized · 34% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/CPV · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 138.37 | 2024 (2.7bn) |
| 2028 | 150.32 | 2025 (3.1bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 43.8399 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.658 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.03 | 2023 (3.72) |
| 2027 | 12.63 | 2024 (1.05) |
| 2028 | 13.31 | 2025 (2.34) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 12.0833 + 0.5225·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.657 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6bn | 2025 (11.94) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 3000093120.9307 + -121080475.0903·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.617 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.41 | 2025 (11.94) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -5.9927 + 0.7035·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.6 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.28 | 2024 (127.1) |
| 2027 | -4.5 | 2025 (115.4) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -16.526 + 0.1042·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/CPV?indicator= · API docs
