Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Cabo Verde: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Cabo Verde's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.761 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 128 | 2024 (2.7bn) |
Latest observed-0.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.26 | 15.86 | -13.34 | -1.74 – 4.26 |
| 2029 | 4.59 | 29.87 | -20.7 | -0.8 – 9.97 |
| 2031 | 7.91 | 30 | -24.74 | 0.61 – 15.21 |
| 2036 | 16.22 | 30 | -29.95 | 4.2 – 28.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.5· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.09 | 62.96 | 24 | 38.43 – 45.74 |
| 2028 | 42.31 | 78.47 | 10.98 | 35.12 – 49.51 |
| 2030 | 42.54 | 89.21 | 2.09 | 32.47 – 52.61 |
| 2035 | 43.1 | 109.11 | 0 | 26.77 – 59.42 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead41.86· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.14typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.7bn | 4.2bn | 3.2bn | 3.5bn – 3.8bn |
| 2029 | 4.2bn | 5.1bn | 3.4bn | 3.9bn – 4.5bn |
| 2031 | 4.7bn | 5.9bn | 3.7bn | 4.2bn – 5.3bn |
| 2036 | 6.1bn | 7.8bn | 4.6bn | 4.8bn – 7.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.87 | 12 | -7.81 | 1.56 – 6.18 |
| 2029 | 1.7 | 12 | -10 | -2.27 – 5.68 |
| 2031 | -0.47 | 12 | -10 | -5.58 – 4.63 |
| 2036 | -5.91 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 2.15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.12· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.1k | 8.1k | 6.2k | 6.8k – 7.3k |
| 2029 | 8.1k | 10k | 6.5k | 7.5k – 8.7k |
| 2031 | 9.2k | 11.5k | 7.1k | 8.1k – 10.2k |
| 2036 | 11.7k | 15.1k | 8.8k | 9.3k – 14.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.1k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed95.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 93.87 | 122.89 | 60.39 | 87.91 – 99.84 |
| 2029 | 89.81 | 140.07 | 31.82 | 77.77 – 101.86 |
| 2031 | 85.76 | 150.64 | 10.89 | 68.91 – 102.6 |
| 2036 | 75.62 | 167.38 | 0 | 49.4 – 101.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead95.2· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.79 | 58.02 | 47.56 | 51.15 – 54.43 |
| 2028 | 51.66 | 60.72 | 42.61 | 47.8 – 55.53 |
| 2030 | 50.54 | 62.23 | 38.85 | 44.71 – 56.37 |
| 2035 | 47.73 | 64.25 | 31.2 | 37.56 – 57.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead52.9· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.13typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.12 | 9.34 | -5 | 0.48 – 3.75 |
| 2029 | 1.92 | 14.43 | -5 | -0.95 – 4.78 |
| 2031 | 1.72 | 17.88 | -5 | -2 – 5.44 |
| 2036 | 1.21 | 24.07 | -5 | -4.05 – 6.47 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed527.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 515.1k | 539.4k | 492.5k | 499.1k – 531k |
| 2029 | 503.7k | 527.5k | 481.6k | 466.4k – 541k |
| 2031 | 492.3k | 515.6k | 470.7k | 436.4k – 548.2k |
| 2036 | 463.9k | 487.4k | 442.2k | 367.7k – 560.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead518.1k· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.69(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.09 | 15 | -10 | 2.4 – 7.78 |
| 2028 | 6.27 | 15 | -10 | 1.45 – 11.1 |
| 2030 | 7.46 | 15 | -10 | 1.02 – 13.89 |
| 2035 | 10.41 | 15 | -10 | 0.49 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.34· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.06typical miss · 1 realized · 23% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4bn | 1.7bn | 1bn | 1.3bn – 1.4bn |
| 2028 | 1.6bn | 2.2bn | 1bn | 1.5bn – 1.8bn |
| 2030 | 1.9bn | 2.6bn | 1.1bn | 1.6bn – 2.1bn |
| 2035 | 2.5bn | 3.6bn | 1.5bn | 2bn – 3.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.69(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.12 | 10.65 | 5.58 | 7.6 – 8.63 |
| 2028 | 7.43 | 11.83 | 3.04 | 6.4 – 8.46 |
| 2030 | 7.1 | 12.77 | 1.42 | 5.66 – 8.54 |
| 2035 | 6.83 | 14.86 | 0 | 4.51 – 9.15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.84· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.3bn | 1.7bn | 1bn | 1.3bn – 1.4bn |
| 2028 | 1.6bn | 2.2bn | 1bn | 1.4bn – 1.7bn |
| 2030 | 1.8bn | 2.6bn | 1.1bn | 1.6bn – 2.1bn |
| 2035 | 2.4bn | 3.4bn | 1.3bn | 1.8bn – 2.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.7 | 10.32 | 5.08 | 7.17 – 8.22 |
| 2029 | 6.09 | 10.63 | 1.56 | 5.11 – 7.08 |
| 2031 | 4.49 | 10.35 | 0 | 3.24 – 5.75 |
| 2036 | 0.48 | 8.76 | 0 | 0 – 1.91 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.75· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/CPV · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 138.06 | 2025 (3.1bn) |
| 2029 | 149.54 | 2026 (3.4bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 48.3729 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.658 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.73 | 2026 (3.4bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 18.9595 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.647 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.1bn | 2026 (8.5) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 3136809350.3847 + -127340084.0926·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.619 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.02 | 2026 (8.5) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -6.0076 + 0.7042·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.595 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -4.03 | 2024 (112.8) |
| 2028 | -5.35 | 2025 (101) |
| 2029 | -5.92 | 2026 (95.9) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -16.6298 + 0.1117·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/CPV?indicator= · API docs
