Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Cyprus: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Cyprus's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.888 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.7 | 2025 (4.92) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ . Correlation, not causation.
Latest observed-7.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.79 | -1.43 | -12.14 | -7.99 – -5.58 |
| 2028 | -7.56 | 1.72 | -16.83 | -9.81 – -5.3 |
| 2030 | -8.33 | 3.64 | -20.3 | -11.44 – -5.22 |
| 2035 | -10.26 | 6.67 | -27.19 | -15.35 – -5.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-7.79· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.91typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed97.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 101.52 | 115.87 | 89.09 | 97.85 – 105.2 |
| 2028 | 109.43 | 134.28 | 87.89 | 100.62 – 118.23 |
| 2030 | 117.33 | 149.41 | 89.52 | 103.36 – 131.3 |
| 2035 | 137.08 | 150 | 97.76 | 108.65 – 150 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead99.54· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.85typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.5bn | 47.5bn | 40.1bn | 42.2bn – 44.9bn |
| 2028 | 49.3bn | 56.1bn | 43.4bn | 45.7bn – 52.9bn |
| 2030 | 55.1bn | 63.9bn | 47.4bn | 48.8bn – 61.3bn |
| 2035 | 69.5bn | 81.9bn | 58.7bn | 55.1bn – 83.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead46.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±759mtypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.96 | 12 | -8.58 | 1.48 – 6.43 |
| 2028 | 4.21 | 12 | -10 | -0.17 – 8.59 |
| 2030 | 4.47 | 12 | -10 | -1.28 – 10.22 |
| 2035 | 5.11 | 12 | -10 | -3.33 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.87· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.06typical miss · 1 realized · 36% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.7k | 47.8k | 40.1k | 42.3k – 45k |
| 2028 | 48.5k | 55.6k | 42.3k | 44.9k – 52.1k |
| 2030 | 53.4k | 62.6k | 45.4k | 47.3k – 59.4k |
| 2035 | 65.4k | 78.4k | 54.1k | 51.9k – 79k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead46.6k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±787.2typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.92(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.42 | 6.3 | 0.33 | 2.65 – 4.18 |
| 2029 | 2.82 | 7.81 | 0 | 1.46 – 4.19 |
| 2031 | 2.53 | 8.97 | 0 | 0.74 – 4.32 |
| 2036 | 2.3 | 11.4 | 0 | 0 – 4.91 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.2· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49.53 | 69.85 | 26.08 | 45.61 – 53.45 |
| 2028 | 38.59 | 73.79 | 0 | 31.32 – 45.86 |
| 2030 | 27.65 | 73.09 | 0 | 18.45 – 36.85 |
| 2035 | 0.3 | 64.56 | 0 | 0 – 10.35 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead48.25· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.87typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed91.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 95.25 | 107.89 | 82.62 | 91.8 – 98.71 |
| 2028 | 101.92 | 123.8 | 80.03 | 93.67 – 110.16 |
| 2030 | 108.58 | 136.84 | 80.32 | 95.57 – 121.59 |
| 2035 | 125.24 | 150 | 85.28 | 99.08 – 150 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead93.46· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.33typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.31 | 7.51 | -5 | -2.06 – 1.44 |
| 2028 | -2.65 | 10.89 | -5 | -5 – 0.48 |
| 2030 | -5 | 12.49 | -5 | -5 – -0.72 |
| 2035 | -5 | 19.73 | -5 | -5 – 1.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.94· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.01typical miss · 1 realized · 108% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.2(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.05 | 11.11 | -3.52 | 2.42 – 5.68 |
| 2029 | 2.94 | 15.18 | -5 | 0.09 – 5.8 |
| 2031 | 2.54 | 18.34 | -5 | -1.16 – 6.25 |
| 2036 | 2.34 | 24.67 | -5 | -2.99 – 7.66 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.03 | 22.9 | 17.54 | 19.3 – 20.76 |
| 2028 | 20.02 | 25 | 15.71 | 18.35 – 21.69 |
| 2030 | 20.01 | 26.44 | 14.44 | 17.49 – 22.53 |
| 2035 | 19.99 | 29.08 | 12.12 | 15.49 – 24.49 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.19· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.89typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.3m – 1.4m |
| 2028 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.3m – 1.5m |
| 2030 | 1.4m | 1.5m | 1.3m | 1.2m – 1.6m |
| 2035 | 1.4m | 1.5m | 1.4m | 1.1m – 1.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead985.7k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±371ktypical miss · 1 realized · 37% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.15 | 15 | -6.52 | 1.48 – 4.81 |
| 2028 | 3.06 | 15 | -10 | 0.12 – 6 |
| 2030 | 2.97 | 15 | -10 | -0.87 – 6.81 |
| 2035 | 2.75 | 15 | -10 | -2.79 – 8.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.15· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.07typical miss · 1 realized · 33% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed999.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1bn | 1.3bn | 796.1m | 995.7m – 1.1bn |
| 2028 | 1.2bn | 1.6bn | 750m | 1.1bn – 1.3bn |
| 2030 | 1.3bn | 1.9bn | 762.2m | 1.1bn – 1.5bn |
| 2035 | 1.7bn | 2.5bn | 877.9m | 1.3bn – 2.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.46 | 0.66 | 0.26 | 0.41 – 0.51 |
| 2028 | 0.37 | 0.66 | 0.09 | 0.28 – 0.46 |
| 2030 | 0.33 | 0.7 | 0 | 0.2 – 0.47 |
| 2035 | 0.3 | 0.81 | 0 | 0.06 – 0.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.57· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2bn | 3.7bn | 2.7bn | 3.1bn – 3.3bn |
| 2028 | 3.9bn | 4.8bn | 3.1bn | 3.6bn – 4.2bn |
| 2030 | 4.6bn | 5.7bn | 3.5bn | 4.1bn – 5.2bn |
| 2035 | 6.4bn | 7.9bn | 4.8bn | 5bn – 7.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.27 | 5.04 | 3.5 | 4.08 – 4.45 |
| 2028 | 2.96 | 4.29 | 1.62 | 2.61 – 3.3 |
| 2030 | 1.64 | 3.37 | 0 | 1.25 – 2.04 |
| 2035 | 0 | 2.44 | 0 | 0 – 0.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.04· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.27typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/CYP · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.718 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.52 | 2023 (35.1bn) |
| 2027 | 12.24 | 2024 (37.6bn) |
| 2028 | 13.23 | 2025 (41.2bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 1.7779 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.661 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.96 | 2025 (4.92) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 4.8448 + -0.3825·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.559 over 51 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.2bn | 2023 (3.54) |
| 2027 | 18.4bn | 2024 (1.8) |
| 2028 | 21.4bn | 2025 (0.13) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 21625854808.7024 + -1814303323.8264·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/CYP?indicator= · API docs
