Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Germany: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Germany's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.835 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.95 | 2023 (61.8) |
Latest observed4.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.99 | 6.62 | 1.36 | 3.39 – 4.59 |
| 2028 | 2.96 | 7.51 | -1.59 | 1.89 – 4.04 |
| 2030 | 1.94 | 7.82 | -3.93 | 0.59 – 3.29 |
| 2035 | -0.62 | 7.69 | -8.93 | -2.47 – 1.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.27· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.51typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.38 | 45.49 | 35.96 | 39.01 – 41.76 |
| 2028 | 40.28 | 49.13 | 32.61 | 37.08 – 43.48 |
| 2030 | 40.18 | 51.6 | 30.28 | 35.33 – 45.02 |
| 2035 | 39.92 | 56.08 | 25.92 | 31.23 – 48.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead40.38· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.12typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.2T | 5.7T | 4.8T | 5.1T – 5.4T |
| 2028 | 5.7T | 6.5T | 5T | 5.2T – 6.1T |
| 2030 | 6.1T | 7.1T | 5.2T | 5.4T – 6.8T |
| 2035 | 7.2T | 8.7T | 5.9T | 5.7T – 8.7T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.7T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±243.4bntypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.64 | 8.67 | -6.32 | -0.72 – 1.99 |
| 2028 | 1.46 | 12 | -10 | -0.93 – 3.84 |
| 2030 | 2.27 | 12 | -10 | -0.9 – 5.45 |
| 2035 | 4.32 | 12 | -10 | -0.61 – 9.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.19· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.66typical miss · 1 realized · 51% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.5k | 68.1k | 57.7k | 60.6k – 64.4k |
| 2028 | 67.6k | 77.3k | 59.2k | 62.6k – 72.6k |
| 2030 | 72.6k | 85.2k | 61.8k | 64.4k – 80.9k |
| 2035 | 85.3k | 103k | 70k | 67.6k – 103k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead68.2k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.47(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.79 | 4.47 | 0.98 | 2.33 – 3.25 |
| 2029 | 1.97 | 4.89 | 0 | 1.15 – 2.78 |
| 2031 | 1.57 | 5.34 | 0 | 0.51 – 2.62 |
| 2036 | 1.25 | 6.59 | 0 | 0 – 2.76 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.61· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.41 | 69.53 | 54.2 | 60.32 – 64.51 |
| 2028 | 61.84 | 74.17 | 47.61 | 56.97 – 66.7 |
| 2030 | 61.26 | 77.18 | 42.89 | 53.91 – 68.61 |
| 2035 | 59.82 | 82.34 | 33.84 | 46.79 – 72.86 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead64.62· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.19typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38.51 | 44.86 | 32.15 | 36.92 – 40.1 |
| 2028 | 39.37 | 50.37 | 28.36 | 35.79 – 42.94 |
| 2030 | 40.22 | 54.43 | 26.02 | 34.83 – 45.62 |
| 2035 | 42.37 | 62.46 | 22.28 | 32.52 – 52.23 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead38.49· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.19typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.46 | 7.96 | -3.43 | 1.2 – 3.72 |
| 2028 | 2.34 | 11.86 | -5 | 0.12 – 4.56 |
| 2030 | 2.22 | 14.51 | -5 | -0.68 – 5.12 |
| 2035 | 1.92 | 19.31 | -5 | -2.24 – 6.09 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.02· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.24typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.3(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.23 | 9.9 | -3.92 | 1.7 – 4.76 |
| 2029 | 3.16 | 14.72 | -5 | 0.44 – 5.87 |
| 2031 | 3.13 | 18.06 | -5 | -0.43 – 6.69 |
| 2036 | 3.12 | 24.23 | -5 | -2.06 – 8.3 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.69· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.07 | 21.12 | 19.16 | 19.45 – 20.69 |
| 2028 | 19.49 | 20.89 | 18.27 | 18.05 – 20.93 |
| 2030 | 18.91 | 20.72 | 17.34 | 16.76 – 21.05 |
| 2035 | 17.45 | 20.01 | 15.24 | 13.83 – 21.08 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.25· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.07typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed83.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 83.4m | 87.4m | 79.8m | 80.8m – 86m |
| 2028 | 83.4m | 87.3m | 79.7m | 77.2m – 89.6m |
| 2030 | 83.4m | 87.3m | 79.7m | 73.9m – 92.8m |
| 2035 | 83.3m | 87.2m | 79.7m | 66m – 100.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead83.3m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±152.5ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.26 | 8.08 | -3.85 | 0.39 – 2.14 |
| 2028 | 1.62 | 13.43 | -7.24 | 0.06 – 3.17 |
| 2030 | 1.97 | 15 | -9.47 | -0.09 – 4.03 |
| 2035 | 2.85 | 15 | -10 | -0.3 – 6 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.24· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.15typical miss · 1 realized · 188% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed101.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 103.9bn | 127.9bn | 80bn | 98.6bn – 109.3bn |
| 2028 | 110.4bn | 151.8bn | 68.9bn | 98.7bn – 122bn |
| 2030 | 116.8bn | 170.3bn | 63.2bn | 99.2bn – 134.3bn |
| 2035 | 132.8bn | 208.6bn | 57.1bn | 100bn – 165.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead106.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.76 | 3.48 | 2.04 | 2.61 – 2.91 |
| 2028 | 2.35 | 3.59 | 1.1 | 2.04 – 2.65 |
| 2030 | 2.14 | 3.75 | 0.54 | 1.73 – 2.56 |
| 2035 | 1.98 | 4.26 | 0 | 1.32 – 2.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.24· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed572.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 627.3bn | 744.5bn | 510.2bn | 599.4bn – 655.3bn |
| 2028 | 767.9bn | 970.9bn | 565bn | 700bn – 835.9bn |
| 2030 | 908.6bn | 1.2T | 646.6bn | 795.8bn – 1T |
| 2035 | 1.3T | 1.6T | 889.6bn | 998.7bn – 1.5T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead623.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.67 | 4.28 | 3.05 | 3.52 – 3.82 |
| 2028 | 3.58 | 4.65 | 2.51 | 3.25 – 3.92 |
| 2030 | 3.5 | 4.88 | 2.12 | 3.01 – 3.99 |
| 2035 | 3.28 | 5.23 | 1.33 | 2.46 – 4.11 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.09· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.33typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/DEU · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 3.83 | 2024 (61.4) |
| 2028 | 4.19 | 2025 (62.7) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -13.1781 + 0.2771·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.834 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.56 | 2023 (5.5) |
| 2027 | 5.39 | 2024 (5.8) |
| 2028 | 6.13 | 2025 (4.5) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 8.6867 + -0.5686·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.726 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.4T | 2023 (5.5) |
| 2027 | 3.4T | 2024 (5.8) |
| 2028 | 3.1T | 2025 (4.5) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 2018646781639.7563 + 245409375875.568·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.646 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 74.68 | 2023 (4.6T) |
| 2027 | 75.56 | 2024 (4.7T) |
| 2028 | 78.19 | 2025 (5.1T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 41.9045 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/DEU?indicator= · API docs
