Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Djibouti: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Djibouti's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.654 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.22 | 2025 (6.5) |
Latest observed11.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.82 | 30 | -9.27 | 9.67 – 19.98 |
| 2028 | 15.47 | 30 | -26.26 | 6.21 – 24.73 |
| 2030 | 16.12 | 30 | -30 | 3.83 – 28.4 |
| 2035 | 17.74 | 30 | -30 | -0.65 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.33· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.32typical miss · 1 realized · 29% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed110.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 105.65 | 150 | 61.59 | 96.69 – 114.6 |
| 2028 | 95.96 | 150 | 19.64 | 78.77 – 113.14 |
| 2030 | 86.26 | 150 | 0 | 63.12 – 109.4 |
| 2035 | 62.03 | 150 | 0 | 29.14 – 94.93 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead113.66· skill-weighted across models
Track record±13.64typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.9bn | 5.1bn | 4.6bn | 4.7bn – 5bn |
| 2028 | 5.5bn | 5.9bn | 5.1bn | 5.1bn – 5.9bn |
| 2030 | 6.1bn | 6.6bn | 5.6bn | 5.4bn – 6.8bn |
| 2035 | 7.6bn | 8.4bn | 6.9bn | 6bn – 9.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.8mtypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.71 | 9.4 | 4.38 | 6.16 – 7.27 |
| 2028 | 7.3 | 11.96 | 3.26 | 6.17 – 8.42 |
| 2030 | 7.88 | 12 | 2.67 | 6.25 – 9.51 |
| 2035 | 9.34 | 12 | 1.97 | 6.43 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.62· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.11typical miss · 1 realized · 20% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.1k | 4.3k | 3.9k | 3.9k – 4.2k |
| 2028 | 4.5k | 4.9k | 4.2k | 4.2k – 4.8k |
| 2030 | 4.9k | 5.4k | 4.5k | 4.4k – 5.5k |
| 2035 | 6k | 6.7k | 5.4k | 4.7k – 7.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.8k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±484.14typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.49 | 33.66 | 24.67 | 28.37 – 30.6 |
| 2028 | 25.86 | 33.09 | 17.52 | 23.51 – 28.22 |
| 2030 | 22.24 | 31.57 | 11.47 | 19.02 – 25.45 |
| 2035 | 13.17 | 26.37 | 0 | 9.03 – 17.31 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead27.58· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.79typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed95.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 90.67 | 133.5 | 47.85 | 82.67 – 98.68 |
| 2028 | 80.41 | 150 | 6.24 | 65.2 – 95.63 |
| 2030 | 70.15 | 150 | 0 | 49.88 – 90.42 |
| 2035 | 44.51 | 150 | 0 | 16.66 – 72.36 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead97.94· skill-weighted across models
Track record±14.83typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.27 | 4.14 | -5 | -2.5 – -0.05 |
| 2028 | -4.67 | 4.71 | -5 | -5 – -2.37 |
| 2030 | -5 | 7.11 | -5 | -5 – -1.92 |
| 2035 | -5 | 12.13 | -5 | -5 – -0.4 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.46· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.57typical miss · 1 realized · 155% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.65 | 28.35 | 21.44 | 23.73 – 25.57 |
| 2028 | 22.73 | 29.14 | 17.17 | 20.72 – 24.73 |
| 2030 | 20.8 | 29.08 | 13.63 | 17.96 – 23.65 |
| 2035 | 16 | 27.7 | 5.85 | 11.76 – 20.23 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.11· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.39typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.2m | 1.2m | 1.1m | 1.1m – 1.2m |
| 2028 | 1.2m | 1.3m | 1.1m | 1.1m – 1.3m |
| 2030 | 1.2m | 1.3m | 1.2m | 1.1m – 1.4m |
| 2035 | 1.3m | 1.3m | 1.2m | 995.3k – 1.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.1m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±110.8ktypical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.38 | 8.8 | 2.81 | 4.86 – 5.89 |
| 2028 | 6.99 | 12.92 | 2.54 | 5.91 – 8.06 |
| 2030 | 8.6 | 15 | 2.86 | 6.95 – 10.24 |
| 2035 | 12.62 | 15 | 4.5 | 9.25 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.31· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.91typical miss · 1 realized · 19% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed655.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 652m | 953.4m | 350.7m | 595.5m – 708.6m |
| 2028 | 658.4m | 1.2bn | 136.4m | 546.9m – 769.9m |
| 2030 | 664.8m | 1.3bn | 0 | 508.4m – 821.1m |
| 2035 | 680.7m | 1.6bn | 0 | 425.9m – 935.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead678.3m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.85(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.01 | 2.04 | 0 | 0.84 – 1.18 |
| 2027 | 1.2 | 2.98 | 0 | 0.87 – 1.53 |
| 2029 | 1.3 | 3.59 | 0 | 0.84 – 1.75 |
| 2034 | 1.37 | 4.62 | 0 | 0.66 – 2.09 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.75· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed655.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 652m | 953.4m | 350.7m | 595.5m – 708.6m |
| 2028 | 658.4m | 1.2bn | 136.4m | 546.9m – 769.9m |
| 2030 | 664.8m | 1.3bn | 0 | 508.4m – 821.1m |
| 2035 | 680.7m | 1.6bn | 0 | 425.9m – 935.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead678.3m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.63 | 26.89 | 24.37 | 24.84 – 26.42 |
| 2028 | 24.86 | 26.6 | 23.11 | 23.02 – 26.7 |
| 2030 | 24.09 | 26.34 | 21.84 | 21.35 – 26.82 |
| 2035 | 22.16 | 25.34 | 18.98 | 17.56 – 26.76 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.81· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/DJI · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 26.7766 + -0.0854·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.629 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.6bn | 2024 (6.98) |
| 2027 | 2.5bn | 2025 (6.5) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 1066817170.2056 + 223073293.3736·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.597 over 17 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38.34 | 2023 (1.45) |
| 2027 | 37.22 | 2024 (2.11) |
| 2028 | 41.32 | 2025 (-0.31) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 40.7905 + -1.6898·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.596 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.72 | 2025 (4.6bn) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 0.2418 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/DJI?indicator= · API docs
