Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
East Asia & Pacific (excluding high income): forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, East Asia & Pacific (excluding high income)'s strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.6 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.66 | 2023 (5.89) |
Latest observed25.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.96 | 28.17 | 24.04 | 25.15 – 26.76 |
| 2028 | 26.83 | 30.66 | 23.51 | 24.85 – 28.82 |
| 2030 | 27.7 | 32.65 | 23.42 | 24.56 – 30.85 |
| 2035 | 29.89 | 36.89 | 23.82 | 23.69 – 36.09 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.92· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.32typical miss · 25 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.2T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.8T | 26T | 21.9T | 23.1T – 24.5T |
| 2028 | 25.2T | 29.1T | 21.9T | 23.4T – 27.1T |
| 2030 | 26.7T | 31.7T | 22.3T | 23.6T – 29.7T |
| 2035 | 30.3T | 37.3T | 24.1T | 24T – 36.5T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.1T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.3Ttypical miss · 25 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.95 | 12 | -1.27 | 3.68 – 6.23 |
| 2028 | 5 | 12 | -5.78 | 2.69 – 7.32 |
| 2030 | 5.06 | 12 | -8.86 | 1.98 – 8.14 |
| 2035 | 5.19 | 12 | -10 | 0.57 – 9.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.11· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.49typical miss · 25 realized · 121% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.1k | 12.1k | 10.2k | 10.7k – 11.4k |
| 2028 | 11.7k | 13.5k | 10.1k | 10.9k – 12.6k |
| 2030 | 12.4k | 14.7k | 10.3k | 11k – 13.8k |
| 2035 | 14k | 17.3k | 11.1k | 11.1k – 16.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.2k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±667.64typical miss · 25 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.93 | 24.05 | 19.8 | 21.25 – 22.61 |
| 2028 | 22.1 | 25.77 | 18.42 | 20.46 – 23.73 |
| 2030 | 22.26 | 27.01 | 17.51 | 19.74 – 24.79 |
| 2035 | 22.69 | 29.41 | 15.97 | 17.98 – 27.39 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.71· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.27typical miss · 25 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.32 | 6.64 | -2.31 | 1.32 – 3.31 |
| 2028 | 2.15 | 9.64 | -5 | 0.39 – 3.91 |
| 2030 | 1.99 | 11.65 | -5 | -0.32 – 4.29 |
| 2035 | 1.57 | 15.24 | -5 | -1.71 – 4.85 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.76· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.71typical miss · 4 realized · 170% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.66(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 37.31 | 39.27 | 35.61 | 36.15 – 38.47 |
| 2027 | 36.4 | 38.31 | 34.74 | 33.7 – 39.09 |
| 2029 | 35.48 | 37.91 | 33.38 | 31.45 – 39.51 |
| 2034 | 33.19 | 36.62 | 30.22 | 26.3 – 40.07 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead37.78· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.47typical miss · 20 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.1bn | 2.2bn | 2bn | 2.1bn – 2.2bn |
| 2028 | 2.1bn | 2.2bn | 2.1bn | 2bn – 2.3bn |
| 2030 | 2.1bn | 2.3bn | 2.1bn | 1.9bn – 2.4bn |
| 2035 | 2.2bn | 2.3bn | 2.1bn | 1.7bn – 2.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±19.8mtypical miss · 25 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.77 | 8.16 | 2.23 | 4.27 – 5.27 |
| 2028 | 5.16 | 11.04 | 0.76 | 4.18 – 6.14 |
| 2030 | 5.56 | 13.14 | -0.13 | 4.16 – 6.95 |
| 2035 | 6.54 | 15 | -1.51 | 4.15 – 8.93 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.77· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.53typical miss · 25 realized · 39% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.53 | 14.12 | 8.93 | 10.95 – 12.11 |
| 2028 | 11.79 | 16.28 | 7.29 | 10.53 – 13.04 |
| 2030 | 11.91 | 17.72 | 6.11 | 10.07 – 13.75 |
| 2035 | 12.01 | 20.23 | 3.8 | 8.84 – 15.19 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.18· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.83 | 4.1 | 3.56 | 3.71 – 3.95 |
| 2028 | 3.65 | 4.12 | 3.18 | 3.38 – 3.92 |
| 2030 | 3.46 | 4.07 | 2.86 | 3.07 – 3.86 |
| 2035 | 3.01 | 3.87 | 2.15 | 2.39 – 3.64 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.87· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.39typical miss · 20 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/EAP · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 4.24 | 2024 (2.18) |
| 2028 | 4.26 | 2025 (2.06) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 4.5776 + -0.1552·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.58 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.2T | 2023 (5.89) |
| 2027 | 12.1T | 2024 (2.18) |
| 2028 | 12.3T | 2025 (2.06) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 15599868365647.172 + -1605081421110.732·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.555 over 49 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.61 | 2024 (22.2T) |
| 2027 | 1.39 | 2025 (23.2T) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 6.6077 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/EAP?indicator= · API docs
