Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
East Asia & Pacific: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, East Asia & Pacific's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.652 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.75 | 2023 (4.25) |
Latest observed32.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.24 | 36.53 | 30.39 | 32.21 – 34.27 |
| 2028 | 34.65 | 40.35 | 29.72 | 32.09 – 37.22 |
| 2030 | 36.07 | 43.42 | 29.69 | 31.97 – 40.16 |
| 2035 | 39.59 | 49.99 | 30.58 | 31.38 – 47.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead33.19· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.77typical miss · 25 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.7T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.3T | 37.2T | 31.7T | 33.2T – 35.3T |
| 2028 | 35.9T | 41T | 31.5T | 33.3T – 38.6T |
| 2030 | 37.6T | 44.2T | 31.8T | 33.3T – 41.8T |
| 2035 | 41.7T | 51T | 33.5T | 33T – 50.3T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead34.5T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.4Ttypical miss · 25 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.09 | 10.92 | -1.82 | 2.89 – 5.29 |
| 2028 | 4.33 | 12 | -5.91 | 2.15 – 6.51 |
| 2030 | 4.57 | 12 | -8.66 | 1.66 – 7.48 |
| 2035 | 5.17 | 12 | -10 | 0.75 – 9.6 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.23· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.6typical miss · 25 realized · 1750% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.3k | 15.6k | 13.2k | 13.9k – 14.8k |
| 2028 | 15k | 17.1k | 13.1k | 13.9k – 16.1k |
| 2030 | 15.6k | 18.4k | 13.2k | 13.8k – 17.4k |
| 2035 | 17.2k | 21.2k | 13.8k | 13.6k – 20.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.1ktypical miss · 25 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.85 | 32.06 | 25.65 | 27.9 – 29.8 |
| 2028 | 29.65 | 35.2 | 24.11 | 27.38 – 31.93 |
| 2030 | 30.45 | 37.62 | 23.29 | 26.92 – 33.99 |
| 2035 | 32.46 | 42.59 | 22.33 | 25.71 – 39.2 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.77· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.15typical miss · 25 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.95 | 5.73 | -2.1 | 1.08 – 2.82 |
| 2028 | 1.44 | 7.99 | -5 | -0.08 – 2.96 |
| 2030 | 0.93 | 9.38 | -5 | -1.02 – 2.89 |
| 2035 | -0.34 | 11.61 | -5 | -3.15 – 2.47 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.79· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.22typical miss · 4 realized · 149% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.13(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 33.98 | 35.76 | 32.43 | 32.92 – 35.03 |
| 2027 | 33.58 | 35.34 | 32.05 | 31.1 – 36.06 |
| 2029 | 33.18 | 35.21 | 31.43 | 29.42 – 36.95 |
| 2034 | 32.2 | 35.06 | 29.72 | 25.52 – 38.87 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead34.17· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.88typical miss · 20 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.4bn | 2.5bn | 2.3bn | 2.3bn – 2.5bn |
| 2028 | 2.4bn | 2.5bn | 2.3bn | 2.2bn – 2.6bn |
| 2030 | 2.4bn | 2.5bn | 2.3bn | 2.1bn – 2.7bn |
| 2035 | 2.4bn | 2.5bn | 2.3bn | 1.9bn – 2.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±19.8mtypical miss · 25 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.2 | 7.68 | 1.58 | 3.69 – 4.7 |
| 2028 | 4.67 | 10.7 | 0.14 | 3.69 – 5.64 |
| 2030 | 5.14 | 12.93 | -0.71 | 3.75 – 6.52 |
| 2035 | 6.31 | 15 | -1.96 | 3.92 – 8.7 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.04· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.68typical miss · 25 realized · 58% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.55 | 14.22 | 8.87 | 10.95 – 12.14 |
| 2028 | 11.78 | 16.42 | 7.14 | 10.5 – 13.05 |
| 2030 | 11.89 | 17.88 | 5.9 | 10.02 – 13.76 |
| 2035 | 11.98 | 20.45 | 3.51 | 8.77 – 15.19 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.24· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.71 | 3.94 | 3.48 | 3.59 – 3.82 |
| 2028 | 3.51 | 3.91 | 3.11 | 3.25 – 3.77 |
| 2030 | 3.31 | 3.82 | 2.8 | 2.94 – 3.69 |
| 2035 | 2.82 | 3.54 | 2.09 | 2.23 – 3.4 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.76· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.35typical miss · 20 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/EAS · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 4.09 | 2024 (2.28) |
| 2028 | 4.16 | 2025 (1.91) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 4.4924 + -0.1752·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.538 over 39 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.49 | 2023 (31.6T) |
| 2027 | 1.41 | 2024 (32.2T) |
| 2028 | 1.24 | 2025 (33.7T) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 5.3725 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.518 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.5T | 2023 (4.25) |
| 2027 | 20.1T | 2024 (2.28) |
| 2028 | 21T | 2025 (1.91) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 25528129041521.785 + -2369570292184.112·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/EAS?indicator= · API docs
