Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Europe & Central Asia: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Europe & Central Asia's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.686 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.2T | 2025 (5.36) |
Latest observed43.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.87 | 49.64 | 38.87 | 42.34 – 45.39 |
| 2028 | 44.18 | 54.17 | 35.52 | 40.63 – 47.72 |
| 2030 | 44.48 | 57.38 | 33.3 | 39.08 – 49.89 |
| 2035 | 45.25 | 63.5 | 29.44 | 35.41 – 55.1 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead44.01· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.58typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.3T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.7T | 36.7T | 31T | 32.6T – 34.7T |
| 2028 | 37.2T | 42.5T | 32.7T | 34.5T – 40T |
| 2030 | 40.8T | 47.6T | 34.9T | 36.2T – 45.4T |
| 2035 | 49.7T | 59.3T | 41.3T | 39.4T – 60T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead33.6T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2Ttypical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.09 | 12 | -8.09 | 0.1 – 4.08 |
| 2028 | 2.87 | 12 | -10 | -0.66 – 6.4 |
| 2030 | 3.65 | 12 | -10 | -1.01 – 8.32 |
| 2035 | 5.61 | 12 | -10 | -1.47 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.06· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.55typical miss · 1 realized · 32% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36k | 39.3k | 33.2k | 34.9k – 37.1k |
| 2028 | 39.7k | 45.3k | 34.8k | 36.7k – 42.6k |
| 2030 | 43.3k | 50.6k | 37k | 38.4k – 48.2k |
| 2035 | 52.4k | 62.8k | 43.5k | 41.6k – 63.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead36k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.1ktypical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.23 | 46.6 | 35.86 | 39.74 – 42.71 |
| 2028 | 41.65 | 50.95 | 32.35 | 38.23 – 45.07 |
| 2030 | 42.07 | 54.08 | 30.07 | 36.87 – 47.28 |
| 2035 | 43.13 | 60.11 | 26.16 | 33.63 – 52.63 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead41.45· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.9typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.57 | 13.71 | -5 | 2.47 – 6.67 |
| 2028 | 5.96 | 21.79 | -5 | 2.16 – 9.75 |
| 2030 | 7.34 | 27.78 | -5 | 2.22 – 12.46 |
| 2035 | 10.8 | 39.71 | -5 | 2.66 – 18.93 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.79· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.91 | 23.06 | 20.91 | 21.23 – 22.59 |
| 2028 | 21.92 | 23.55 | 20.5 | 20.3 – 23.54 |
| 2030 | 21.93 | 24.04 | 20.1 | 19.44 – 24.42 |
| 2035 | 21.96 | 24.94 | 19.37 | 17.4 – 26.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.13typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed932.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 932.1m | 976.1m | 891.2m | 903.2m – 961m |
| 2028 | 936.4m | 980.7m | 895.3m | 867.1m – 1bn |
| 2030 | 940.8m | 985.2m | 899.5m | 834m – 1bn |
| 2035 | 951.7m | 996.6m | 909.9m | 754.3m – 1.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead934.3m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.1mtypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.68 | 11.36 | -5.58 | 0.44 – 2.91 |
| 2028 | 1.35 | 15 | -10 | -0.81 – 3.51 |
| 2030 | 1.02 | 15 | -10 | -1.77 – 3.81 |
| 2035 | 0.2 | 15 | -10 | -3.79 – 4.18 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.92· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.37typical miss · 1 realized · 74% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.12 | 9.78 | 4.46 | 6.6 – 7.64 |
| 2028 | 7.8 | 12.4 | 3.19 | 6.72 – 8.88 |
| 2030 | 8.13 | 14.08 | 2.18 | 6.57 – 9.69 |
| 2035 | 8.39 | 16.8 | 0 | 5.76 – 11.02 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.27· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.97 | 5.69 | 4.26 | 4.78 – 5.16 |
| 2028 | 4.2 | 5.44 | 2.96 | 3.81 – 4.59 |
| 2030 | 3.42 | 5.02 | 1.82 | 2.9 – 3.94 |
| 2035 | 1.49 | 3.75 | 0 | 0.9 – 2.07 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.15· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-17 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/ECS · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 45375639272950.09 + -3202021915995.069·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.652 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.09 | 2025 (32.3T) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 10.9338 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/ECS?indicator= · API docs
