Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Ecuador: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Ecuador's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.63 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -8.24 | 2025 (5.8) |
Latest observed5.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6 | 9.08 | 2.92 | 5.27 – 6.72 |
| 2029 | 7.6 | 12.93 | 2.26 | 6.14 – 9.05 |
| 2031 | 9.19 | 16.09 | 2.3 | 7.05 – 11.34 |
| 2036 | 13.19 | 22.93 | 3.44 | 9.09 – 17.29 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.78· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.44(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.72 | 37.11 | 28.91 | 31.57 – 33.87 |
| 2028 | 35.28 | 42.88 | 28.68 | 32.5 – 38.06 |
| 2030 | 37.84 | 47.66 | 29.32 | 33.41 – 42.27 |
| 2035 | 44.23 | 58.12 | 32.2 | 35.06 – 53.41 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead31.14· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.16typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed130.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 142.6bn | 157.4bn | 129.8bn | 138.2bn – 147bn |
| 2029 | 153.8bn | 179.4bn | 131.6bn | 142.4bn – 165.2bn |
| 2031 | 165.1bn | 198.1bn | 136.4bn | 146.3bn – 183.8bn |
| 2036 | 193.2bn | 240bn | 152.6bn | 153.1bn – 233.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead143.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.45 | 11.15 | -3.22 | 2.11 – 4.79 |
| 2029 | 5.23 | 12 | -6.33 | 2.76 – 7.71 |
| 2031 | 7.02 | 12 | -7.91 | 3.58 – 10.45 |
| 2036 | 11.47 | 12 | -9.63 | 5.58 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.9· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.8k | 8.6k | 7k | 7.5k – 8k |
| 2029 | 8.3k | 9.8k | 7k | 7.7k – 8.9k |
| 2031 | 8.9k | 10.8k | 7.2k | 7.8k – 9.9k |
| 2036 | 10.2k | 12.9k | 7.8k | 8.1k – 12.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.8k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.4(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55.37 | 63.27 | 46.26 | 53.27 – 57.47 |
| 2028 | 57.31 | 70.99 | 41.53 | 52.46 – 62.17 |
| 2030 | 59.25 | 76.91 | 38.88 | 51.8 – 66.71 |
| 2035 | 64.1 | 89.07 | 35.29 | 50.01 – 78.2 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead53.97· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.71 | 34.99 | 22.44 | 27.3 – 30.13 |
| 2028 | 30.31 | 41.17 | 19.44 | 27.19 – 33.43 |
| 2030 | 31.9 | 45.93 | 17.87 | 27.2 – 36.6 |
| 2035 | 35.88 | 55.72 | 16.04 | 27.11 – 44.66 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.29· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.05typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.87 | 7.62 | -0.15 | 2.98 – 4.76 |
| 2029 | 6.94 | 13.44 | -0.03 | 5.16 – 8.71 |
| 2031 | 10 | 18.39 | 1.01 | 7.34 – 12.66 |
| 2036 | 17.67 | 29.53 | 4.95 | 12.21 – 23.12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.52· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.72 | 22.54 | 17.28 | 19 – 20.44 |
| 2028 | 19.32 | 24.2 | 15.08 | 17.69 – 20.94 |
| 2030 | 18.91 | 25.22 | 13.44 | 16.5 – 21.32 |
| 2035 | 17.89 | 26.82 | 10.16 | 13.76 – 22.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.83· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.74typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 18.2m | 19m | 17.4m | 17.6m – 18.7m |
| 2029 | 18.1m | 19m | 17.3m | 16.8m – 19.5m |
| 2031 | 18.1m | 18.9m | 17.3m | 16m – 20.1m |
| 2036 | 18m | 18.8m | 17.2m | 14.2m – 21.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.4m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.45 | 11.51 | -6.09 | 0.17 – 2.73 |
| 2028 | 0.6 | 15 | -10 | -1.63 – 2.82 |
| 2030 | -0.26 | 15 | -10 | -3.15 – 2.64 |
| 2035 | -2.39 | 15 | -10 | -6.74 – 1.97 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.39· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.67typical miss · 1 realized · 282% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.2bn | 10.3bn | 2.2bn | 5.5bn – 7bn |
| 2028 | 6.7bn | 13.7bn | 0 | 5.3bn – 8.1bn |
| 2030 | 7.1bn | 16.2bn | 0 | 5.2bn – 9.1bn |
| 2035 | 8.3bn | 21.1bn | 0 | 5bn – 11.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.64 | 4.79 | 0.48 | 2.26 – 3.01 |
| 2028 | 2.38 | 6.11 | 0 | 1.69 – 3.06 |
| 2030 | 2.25 | 7.06 | 0 | 1.33 – 3.16 |
| 2035 | 2.14 | 8.96 | 0 | 0.76 – 3.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.96· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.3bn | 15.1bn | 5.5bn | 9.4bn – 11.2bn |
| 2028 | 11.7bn | 19.9bn | 3.4bn | 9.9bn – 13.5bn |
| 2030 | 13.1bn | 23.7bn | 2.4bn | 10.4bn – 15.8bn |
| 2035 | 16.6bn | 31.7bn | 1.5bn | 11.6bn – 21.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.86 | 3.37 | 2.35 | 2.74 – 2.99 |
| 2029 | 2.39 | 3.27 | 1.5 | 2.14 – 2.64 |
| 2031 | 1.92 | 3.06 | 0.77 | 1.59 – 2.24 |
| 2036 | 0.73 | 2.35 | 0 | 0.32 – 1.14 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.14· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/ECU · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | -5.82 | 2026 (5.2) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 15.0919 + -4.0221·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.606 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.56 | 2024 (54.1) |
| 2028 | 2.59 | 2025 (54.4) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -2.6956 + 0.0971·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.577 over 39 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.38 | 2026 (5.2) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 4.2089 + -0.1596·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.555 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 93.8bn | 2026 (5.2) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 62170062161.8631 + 6076418396.8805·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/ECU?indicator= · API docs
