Forecast

Ecuador — macro forecast

Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.

How to read this:Observeda real measured value from a named source.Derivedcomputed by Predictonomy from observed series using a reproducible method.AI readan AI interpretation of already-computed figures. Opinion, not a new data point.

Forecast

Forward projections

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Forecast heldDerivedledger ca5c236

Real GDP growth — 2027 baseline projection

3.47

Ecuador: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.

Current account balance to GDP

Exports of goods and services

Year	Baseline	Optimistic	Pessimistic	Conf. band
2025	31.6	36.07	27.73	30.46 – 32.75
2027	34.25	41.99	27.53	31.5 – 37
2029	36.89	46.89	28.23	32.51 – 41.27
2034	43.5	57.64	31.25	34.48 – 52.53

Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%

Gross domestic product, current US dollars

Year	Baseline	Optimistic	Pessimistic	Conf. band
2027	142.5bn	157.2bn	129.7bn	138.1bn – 146.9bn
2029	153.5bn	179bn	131.4bn	142.2bn – 164.9bn
2031	164.6bn	197.5bn	136.1bn	145.9bn – 183.3bn
2036	192.2bn	238.7bn	151.9bn	152.3bn – 232bn

Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%

Real GDP growth

Year	Baseline	Optimistic	Pessimistic	Conf. band
2027	3.47	11.21	-3.24	2.12 – 4.81
2029	5.28	12	-6.34	2.79 – 7.77
2031	7.09	12	-7.91	3.64 – 10.54
2036	11.62	12	-9.6	5.68 – 12

Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%

GDP per capita, current US dollars

Year	Baseline	Optimistic	Pessimistic	Conf. band
2027	7.8k	8.6k	7k	7.5k – 8k
2029	8.3k	9.8k	7k	7.7k – 8.9k
2031	8.9k	10.8k	7.2k	7.9k – 9.9k
2036	10.2k	12.9k	7.9k	8.1k – 12.3k

Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%

General government debt to GDP

Year	Baseline	Optimistic	Pessimistic	Conf. band
2026	55.37	63.27	46.26	53.27 – 57.47
2028	57.31	70.99	41.53	52.46 – 62.17
2030	59.25	76.91	38.88	51.8 – 66.71
2035	64.1	89.07	35.29	50.01 – 78.2

Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%

Imports of goods and services

Year	Baseline	Optimistic	Pessimistic	Conf. band
2025	27.87	34.28	21.46	26.45 – 29.3
2027	29.77	40.87	18.67	26.64 – 32.9
2029	31.66	46	17.33	26.94 – 36.39
2034	36.4	56.67	16.13	27.48 – 45.33

Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%

Consumer price inflation

Year	Baseline	Optimistic	Pessimistic	Conf. band
2027	3.88	7.64	-0.15	2.98 – 4.77
2029	6.96	13.47	-0.02	5.18 – 8.73
2031	10.04	18.44	1.03	7.37 – 12.7
2036	17.74	29.62	5	12.26 – 23.21

Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%

Gross fixed capital formation to GDP

Year	Baseline	Optimistic	Pessimistic	Conf. band
2025	18.2	20.95	15.81	17.51 – 18.88
2027	17.57	22.33	13.43	16.04 – 19.09
2029	16.94	23.09	11.6	14.7 – 19.17
2034	15.36	24.07	7.82	11.66 – 19.06

Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%

Total population

Year	Baseline	Optimistic	Pessimistic	Conf. band
2027	18.2m	19.1m	17.4m	17.7m – 18.8m
2029	18.4m	19.3m	17.6m	17m – 19.8m
2031	18.5m	19.4m	17.7m	16.4m – 20.7m
2036	18.9m	19.8m	18.1m	15m – 22.9m

Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%

Productivity growth

Year	Baseline	Optimistic	Pessimistic	Conf. band
2025	-3.66	5.17	-10	-4.82 – -2.49
2027	-4.08	11.2	-10	-6.19 – -1.97
2029	-4.51	15	-10	-7.33 – -1.68
2034	-5.57	15	-10	-9.95 – -1.19

Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%

Unemployment rate

Year	Baseline	Optimistic	Pessimistic	Conf. band
2027	2.86	3.37	2.35	2.74 – 2.99
2029	2.39	3.27	1.5	2.14 – 2.64
2031	1.92	3.06	0.77	1.59 – 2.24
2036	0.73	2.35	0	0.32 – 1.14

Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%

2027	6	9.08	2.92	5.27 – 6.72
2029	7.6	12.93	2.26	6.14 – 9.05
2031	9.19	16.09	2.3	7.05 – 11.34
2036	13.19	22.93	3.44	9.09 – 17.29