Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Ecuador: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Ecuador's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.628 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -9.08 | 2024 (5.7) |
Latest observed4.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.88 | 9.66 | 4.1 | 6.2 – 7.55 |
| 2028 | 8.83 | 13.64 | 4.01 | 7.42 – 10.23 |
| 2030 | 10.78 | 17 | 4.57 | 8.65 – 12.91 |
| 2035 | 15.66 | 24.45 | 6.87 | 11.36 – 19.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.1· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.28typical miss · 1 realized · 49% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.44(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.72 | 37.11 | 28.91 | 31.57 – 33.87 |
| 2028 | 35.28 | 42.88 | 28.68 | 32.5 – 38.06 |
| 2030 | 37.84 | 47.66 | 29.32 | 33.41 – 42.27 |
| 2035 | 44.23 | 58.12 | 32.2 | 35.06 – 53.41 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead31.14· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.16typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed130.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 133.6bn | 148.3bn | 120.8bn | 129.5bn – 137.7bn |
| 2028 | 142.2bn | 167.7bn | 120bn | 131.6bn – 152.7bn |
| 2030 | 150.7bn | 183.7bn | 122.2bn | 133.6bn – 167.8bn |
| 2035 | 172.1bn | 218.7bn | 131.7bn | 136.4bn – 207.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead143.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.6bntypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.48 | 12 | -10 | 1.32 – 7.65 |
| 2028 | 6.24 | 12 | -10 | 0.58 – 11.89 |
| 2030 | 7.99 | 12 | -10 | 0.44 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 0.3 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.14· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.78typical miss · 1 realized · 66% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.3k | 8.1k | 6.5k | 7k – 7.5k |
| 2028 | 7.6k | 9.1k | 6.3k | 7k – 8.2k |
| 2030 | 8k | 9.9k | 6.3k | 7.1k – 8.9k |
| 2035 | 8.9k | 11.6k | 6.5k | 7k – 10.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.8k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±317.61typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.5(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55.48 | 63.37 | 46.37 | 53.37 – 57.58 |
| 2028 | 57.43 | 71.1 | 41.65 | 52.57 – 62.29 |
| 2030 | 59.38 | 77.03 | 39.01 | 51.91 – 66.84 |
| 2035 | 64.26 | 89.22 | 35.46 | 50.14 – 78.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead54.07· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.71 | 34.99 | 22.44 | 27.3 – 30.13 |
| 2028 | 30.31 | 41.17 | 19.44 | 27.19 – 33.43 |
| 2030 | 31.9 | 45.93 | 17.87 | 27.2 – 36.6 |
| 2035 | 35.88 | 55.72 | 16.04 | 27.11 – 44.66 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.29· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.05typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.44 | 3.82 | -3.17 | -0.32 – 1.21 |
| 2028 | -0.73 | 5.12 | -5 | -2.07 – 0.61 |
| 2030 | -1.9 | 5.65 | -5 | -3.73 – -0.08 |
| 2035 | -4.83 | 5.84 | -5 | -5 – -1.69 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.35· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.56typical miss · 1 realized · 78% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.72 | 22.54 | 17.28 | 19 – 20.44 |
| 2028 | 19.32 | 24.2 | 15.08 | 17.69 – 20.94 |
| 2030 | 18.91 | 25.22 | 13.44 | 16.5 – 21.32 |
| 2035 | 17.89 | 26.82 | 10.16 | 13.76 – 22.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.83· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.74typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.2m | 19.1m | 17.4m | 17.7m – 18.8m |
| 2028 | 18.4m | 19.3m | 17.6m | 17.1m – 19.8m |
| 2030 | 18.6m | 19.5m | 17.8m | 16.5m – 20.7m |
| 2035 | 19m | 19.9m | 18.2m | 15.1m – 23m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.4m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.8ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.45 | 11.51 | -6.09 | 0.17 – 2.73 |
| 2028 | 0.6 | 15 | -10 | -1.63 – 2.82 |
| 2030 | -0.26 | 15 | -10 | -3.15 – 2.64 |
| 2035 | -2.39 | 15 | -10 | -6.74 – 1.97 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.39· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.67typical miss · 1 realized · 282% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.2bn | 10.3bn | 2.2bn | 5.5bn – 7bn |
| 2028 | 6.7bn | 13.7bn | 0 | 5.3bn – 8.1bn |
| 2030 | 7.1bn | 16.2bn | 0 | 5.2bn – 9.1bn |
| 2035 | 8.3bn | 21.1bn | 0 | 5bn – 11.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.62 | 4.77 | 0.48 | 2.25 – 2.99 |
| 2028 | 2.37 | 6.08 | 0 | 1.68 – 3.05 |
| 2030 | 2.24 | 7.03 | 0 | 1.33 – 3.15 |
| 2035 | 2.14 | 8.91 | 0 | 0.76 – 3.52 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.94· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.3bn | 15.1bn | 5.5bn | 9.4bn – 11.2bn |
| 2028 | 11.7bn | 19.9bn | 3.4bn | 9.9bn – 13.5bn |
| 2030 | 13.1bn | 23.7bn | 2.4bn | 10.4bn – 15.8bn |
| 2035 | 16.6bn | 31.7bn | 1.5bn | 11.6bn – 21.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.81 | 3.96 | 1.66 | 2.59 – 3.03 |
| 2028 | 1.82 | 3.8 | 0 | 1.43 – 2.21 |
| 2030 | 0.82 | 3.39 | 0 | 0.35 – 1.3 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.63 | 0 | 0 – 0.72 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.14· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.29typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/ECU · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | -9.91 | 2025 (5.9) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 14.6506 + -4.1634·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.586 over 22 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.39 | 2023 (54.5) |
| 2027 | 2.35 | 2024 (54.1) |
| 2028 | 2.39 | 2025 (54.5) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -2.5355 + 0.0903·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.555 over 38 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.29 | 2025 (5.9) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 4.2164 + -0.1571·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.515 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 93.6bn | 2025 (5.9) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 60615852638.1305 + 5589198676.8796·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/ECU?indicator= · API docs
