Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
EEQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, EEQ's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.67 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 51.6 | 2025 (1.6) |
Latest observed-0.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.47 | 0.96 | -3.9 | -1.99 – -0.95 |
| 2028 | -2.21 | 1.99 | -6.42 | -3.17 – -1.25 |
| 2030 | -2.95 | 2.48 | -8.38 | -4.3 – -1.61 |
| 2035 | -4.8 | 2.87 | -12.48 | -7.14 – -2.47 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.02· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.07typical miss · 1 realized · 268% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.5T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.2T | 6.8T | 5.6T | 6T – 6.3T |
| 2028 | 6.9T | 8.1T | 5.9T | 6.4T – 7.4T |
| 2030 | 7.6T | 9.1T | 6.3T | 6.8T – 8.5T |
| 2035 | 9.5T | 11.6T | 7.7T | 7.5T – 11.5T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.8T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±306.6bntypical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.41 | 12 | -8.01 | -0.42 – 3.25 |
| 2028 | 1.02 | 12 | -10 | -2.17 – 4.21 |
| 2030 | 0.63 | 12 | -10 | -3.5 – 4.76 |
| 2035 | -0.36 | 12 | -10 | -6.25 – 5.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.02· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.01typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.4k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.3k | 22.6k | 18.4k | 19.7k – 21k |
| 2028 | 23k | 26.9k | 19.6k | 21.3k – 24.7k |
| 2030 | 25.6k | 30.6k | 21.2k | 22.7k – 28.5k |
| 2035 | 32.1k | 39.3k | 25.9k | 25.4k – 38.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.8k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.1ktypical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.42 | 47.16 | 32.64 | 38.73 – 42.1 |
| 2028 | 41.66 | 53.34 | 28.18 | 37.86 – 45.45 |
| 2030 | 42.89 | 57.97 | 25.49 | 37.14 – 48.65 |
| 2035 | 45.99 | 67.31 | 21.38 | 35.35 – 56.63 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead43.82· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.28typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.55 | 17.29 | -2.89 | 5.27 – 9.83 |
| 2028 | 8.53 | 25.4 | -5 | 4.38 – 12.68 |
| 2030 | 9.51 | 31.29 | -5 | 3.92 – 15.1 |
| 2035 | 11.96 | 42.77 | -5 | 3.21 – 20.7 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.63· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.25typical miss · 1 realized · 42% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed301.5m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 303.6m | 317.9m | 290.3m | 294.2m – 313m |
| 2028 | 301.6m | 315.9m | 288.4m | 279.3m – 323.9m |
| 2030 | 299.7m | 313.8m | 286.5m | 265.7m – 333.7m |
| 2035 | 294.8m | 308.8m | 281.9m | 233.7m – 356m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead300.2m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.1mtypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/EEQ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 90.1822 + -24.1156·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.576 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.39 | 2025 (39.8) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -2.1677 + 0.0893·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.543 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.04 | 2025 (7) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 2.1472 + -0.015·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.543 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.72 | 2023 (8.3) |
| 2027 | 30.93 | 2024 (6.3) |
| 2028 | 31.21 | 2025 (7) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 28.4711 + 0.3909·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.541 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.3T | 2023 (0.3) |
| 2027 | 2.2T | 2024 (0.2) |
| 2028 | 1.5T | 2025 (-1.1) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 2103051512281.0833 + 550362253429.5317·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/EEQ?indicator= · API docs
