Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
EEQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, EEQ's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.67 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 48.16 | 2026 (1.7) |
Latest observed-0.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.18 | 1.13 | -3.5 | -1.68 – -0.69 |
| 2029 | -1.95 | 2.06 | -5.96 | -2.87 – -1.04 |
| 2031 | -2.72 | 2.45 | -7.9 | -4 – -1.45 |
| 2036 | -4.65 | 2.68 | -11.97 | -6.88 – -2.41 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.44· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.3T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.7T | 7.3T | 6.1T | 6.4T – 6.9T |
| 2029 | 7.6T | 8.7T | 6.6T | 7T – 8.2T |
| 2031 | 8.6T | 10T | 7.3T | 7.6T – 9.5T |
| 2036 | 10.9T | 13T | 9.2T | 8.7T – 13.2T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.6T· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.97 | 7.95 | -5.07 | -0.21 – 2.15 |
| 2029 | -0.58 | 11.5 | -10 | -2.64 – 1.48 |
| 2031 | -2.13 | 12 | -10 | -4.9 – 0.64 |
| 2036 | -6.01 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -1.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.38· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.8k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 22.2k | 24.3k | 20.3k | 21.5k – 22.8k |
| 2029 | 25.5k | 29.2k | 22.2k | 23.6k – 27.4k |
| 2031 | 28.8k | 33.7k | 24.6k | 25.6k – 32.1k |
| 2036 | 37.2k | 44k | 31.2k | 29.5k – 44.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.1k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 44.7 | 51.31 | 37.07 | 42.97 – 46.43 |
| 2029 | 46.91 | 58.36 | 33.69 | 42.89 – 50.92 |
| 2031 | 49.11 | 63.9 | 32.05 | 42.91 – 55.32 |
| 2036 | 54.62 | 75.53 | 30.5 | 42.67 – 66.58 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead44.78· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.36 | 14 | -5 | 2.15 – 6.57 |
| 2029 | 1.7 | 18.4 | -5 | -2.08 – 5.48 |
| 2031 | -0.96 | 20.6 | -5 | -5 – 3.9 |
| 2036 | -5 | 25.49 | -5 | -5 – 2.56 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.37· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed301.2m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 301.8m | 316m | 288.5m | 292.4m – 311.1m |
| 2029 | 299.8m | 314m | 286.6m | 277.6m – 322m |
| 2031 | 297.8m | 311.9m | 284.8m | 264m – 331.6m |
| 2036 | 292.9m | 306.8m | 280.1m | 232.2m – 353.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead299.8m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/EEQ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 89.1966 + -24.1373·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.543 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.06 | 2026 (5.1) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 2.1388 + -0.015·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.519 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.3T | 2024 (0.2) |
| 2028 | 1.6T | 2025 (-1) |
| 2029 | 1.7T | 2026 (-0.8) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 2192827696489.5732 + 564105291082.4475·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.511 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.56 | 2026 (43.6) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -1.9348 + 0.0801·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.508 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 31.44 | 2024 (6.3) |
| 2028 | 31.71 | 2025 (7) |
| 2029 | 30.99 | 2026 (5.1) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 29.0652 + 0.3771·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/EEQ?indicator= · API docs
