Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Egypt: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Egypt's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.64 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.63 | 2023 (95.9) |
Latest observed-4.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.41 | -0.46 | -8.35 | -5.28 – -3.53 |
| 2028 | -4.82 | 2.02 | -11.65 | -6.44 – -3.19 |
| 2030 | -5.23 | 3.59 | -14.05 | -7.45 – -3.01 |
| 2035 | -6.26 | 6.22 | -18.74 | -9.81 – -2.71 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-4.38· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.01typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.25 | 27.27 | 14.16 | 18.92 – 21.58 |
| 2028 | 21.1 | 33.27 | 10.56 | 18.35 – 23.85 |
| 2030 | 21.96 | 37.67 | 8.35 | 17.96 – 25.96 |
| 2035 | 24.1 | 46.31 | 4.85 | 17.07 – 31.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.24· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.34typical miss · 1 realized · 17% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed365.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 351bn | 455.7bn | 260.2bn | 332.9bn – 369.1bn |
| 2028 | 321.1bn | 502.5bn | 163.9bn | 284.1bn – 358.1bn |
| 2030 | 291.2bn | 525.3bn | 88.2bn | 240bn – 342.3bn |
| 2035 | 216.3bn | 547.5bn | 0 | 142.3bn – 290.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead450bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±91.9bntypical miss · 1 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.55 | 9.21 | 0.51 | 3.7 – 5.4 |
| 2028 | 4.91 | 12 | -2.08 | 3.33 – 6.5 |
| 2030 | 5.28 | 12 | -3.75 | 3.12 – 7.44 |
| 2035 | 6.19 | 12 | -6.58 | 2.74 – 9.63 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.31· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.55typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.9k | 3.9k | 2.1k | 2.8k – 3.1k |
| 2028 | 2.6k | 4.2k | 1.2k | 2.3k – 2.9k |
| 2030 | 2.2k | 4.3k | 393.79 | 1.8k – 2.7k |
| 2035 | 1.4k | 4.3k | 0 | 781.2 – 1.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.1ktypical miss · 1 realized · 27% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed84(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 86.66 | 97.92 | 73.68 | 83.54 – 89.78 |
| 2028 | 86.39 | 105.88 | 63.9 | 79.24 – 93.53 |
| 2030 | 86.12 | 111.28 | 57.08 | 75.35 – 96.88 |
| 2035 | 85.43 | 121.02 | 44.36 | 66.29 – 104.57 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead83.97· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.66typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.83 | 39.7 | 23.96 | 30.12 – 33.54 |
| 2028 | 32.46 | 46.09 | 18.83 | 28.82 – 36.1 |
| 2030 | 33.09 | 50.68 | 15.5 | 27.75 – 38.43 |
| 2035 | 34.67 | 59.55 | 9.79 | 25.32 – 44.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead32.11· skill-weighted across models
Track record±9.16typical miss · 1 realized · 29% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.29 | 32.17 | -5 | 2.86 – 13.72 |
| 2028 | -5 | 36.36 | -5 | -5 – 4.41 |
| 2030 | -5 | 48.39 | -5 | -5 – 7.24 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 12.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.86· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.01typical miss · 1 realized · 38% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.29 | 13.91 | 7.15 | 9.61 – 10.97 |
| 2028 | 6.9 | 13.17 | 1.46 | 5.67 – 8.13 |
| 2030 | 3.51 | 11.61 | 0 | 2.07 – 4.95 |
| 2035 | 0 | 11.45 | 0 | 0 – 1.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.62· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.88typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed118.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 117.8m | 123.4m | 112.7m | 114.2m – 121.5m |
| 2028 | 119.9m | 125.5m | 114.6m | 111m – 128.7m |
| 2030 | 121.9m | 127.6m | 116.5m | 108m – 135.7m |
| 2035 | 126.9m | 132.9m | 121.3m | 100.6m – 153.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead111.1m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.8mtypical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.78 | 11.9 | -5.8 | 0.49 – 3.08 |
| 2028 | 1.19 | 15 | -10 | -1.06 – 3.44 |
| 2030 | 0.6 | 15 | -10 | -2.31 – 3.51 |
| 2035 | -0.88 | 15 | -10 | -5.04 – 3.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.88· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.16typical miss · 1 realized · 100% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.9bn | 43.6bn | 20.2bn | 29.6bn – 34.2bn |
| 2028 | 33.9bn | 54.2bn | 13.7bn | 29.2bn – 38.7bn |
| 2030 | 36bn | 62.2bn | 9.8bn | 29.1bn – 42.9bn |
| 2035 | 41.2bn | 78.2bn | 4.2bn | 28.9bn – 53.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.47 | 6.17 | 2.78 | 4.14 – 4.8 |
| 2028 | 4.61 | 7.54 | 1.67 | 3.94 – 5.28 |
| 2030 | 4.67 | 8.46 | 0.88 | 3.72 – 5.63 |
| 2035 | 4.72 | 10.08 | 0 | 3.15 – 6.3 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.22· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed48.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.2bn | 63.9bn | 40.5bn | 49.6bn – 54.8bn |
| 2028 | 59.9bn | 80.1bn | 39.7bn | 53.9bn – 65.9bn |
| 2030 | 67.6bn | 93.7bn | 41.5bn | 58.2bn – 77bn |
| 2035 | 86.8bn | 123.7bn | 49.9bn | 67.3bn – 106.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead47.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.56 | 7.37 | 5.76 | 6.33 – 6.79 |
| 2028 | 6.13 | 7.53 | 4.73 | 5.62 – 6.64 |
| 2030 | 5.69 | 7.5 | 3.89 | 4.96 – 6.42 |
| 2035 | 4.6 | 7.15 | 2.05 | 3.47 – 5.73 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.46· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.84typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/EGY · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 5.12 | 2024 (90.9) |
| 2028 | 4.7 | 2025 (86.8) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ -4.1555 + 0.102·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.629 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.88 | 2023 (95.9) |
| 2027 | 8.58 | 2024 (90.9) |
| 2028 | 9.15 | 2025 (86.8) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 21.2612 + -0.1395·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.514 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 90.01 | 2024 (2.4) |
| 2027 | 83.54 | 2025 (4.39) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 97.797 + -3.2463·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/EGY?indicator= · API docs
