Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Euro area: forward projections across 16 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Euro area's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.582 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.5T | 2023 (6.52) |
Latest observed48.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49.05 | 55.55 | 43.42 | 47.34 – 50.77 |
| 2028 | 50.02 | 61.28 | 40.26 | 46.01 – 54.03 |
| 2030 | 50.98 | 65.52 | 38.38 | 44.83 – 57.14 |
| 2035 | 53.39 | 73.95 | 35.57 | 41.91 – 64.87 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead48.69· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.31typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.7T | 20.5T | 17.2T | 18.2T – 19.3T |
| 2028 | 20.5T | 23.6T | 17.8T | 19T – 22T |
| 2030 | 22.3T | 26.3T | 18.9T | 19.8T – 24.9T |
| 2035 | 26.8T | 32.5T | 21.9T | 21.3T – 32.4T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.6T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.1Ttypical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.88 | 12 | -8.52 | -0.15 – 3.91 |
| 2028 | 2.85 | 12 | -10 | -0.75 – 6.45 |
| 2030 | 3.82 | 12 | -10 | -0.95 – 8.6 |
| 2035 | 6.25 | 12 | -10 | -1.07 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.82· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.19typical miss · 1 realized · 84% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed50.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.1k | 57.1k | 47.7k | 50.5k – 53.7k |
| 2028 | 56.8k | 65.5k | 49.2k | 52.6k – 61k |
| 2030 | 61.5k | 72.7k | 51.7k | 54.5k – 68.4k |
| 2035 | 73.2k | 89.1k | 59.4k | 58k – 88.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead51.8k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.37(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.87 | 4.79 | 0.81 | 2.35 – 3.39 |
| 2029 | 2.28 | 5.61 | 0 | 1.35 – 3.21 |
| 2031 | 1.99 | 6.29 | 0 | 0.77 – 3.2 |
| 2036 | 1.75 | 7.83 | 0 | 0 – 3.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.33· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed44.69(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45.15 | 52.84 | 37.46 | 43.25 – 47.05 |
| 2028 | 46.07 | 59.38 | 32.76 | 41.82 – 50.32 |
| 2030 | 46.99 | 64.18 | 29.8 | 40.6 – 53.38 |
| 2035 | 49.29 | 73.6 | 24.98 | 37.68 – 60.9 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead45.2· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.88typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.47(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.9 | 9.99 | -4.7 | 1.28 – 4.52 |
| 2028 | 3.19 | 15.47 | -5 | 0.32 – 6.07 |
| 2030 | 3.49 | 19.34 | -5 | -0.3 – 7.28 |
| 2035 | 4.23 | 26.64 | -5 | -1.42 – 9.87 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.41· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.87 | 9.25 | -3.97 | 1.41 – 4.33 |
| 2029 | 2.84 | 13.89 | -5 | 0.25 – 5.42 |
| 2031 | 2.83 | 17.1 | -5 | -0.56 – 6.22 |
| 2036 | 2.82 | 23.01 | -5 | -2.11 – 7.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.22· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.18(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.03 | 22.26 | 19.95 | 20.37 – 21.68 |
| 2028 | 20.68 | 22.82 | 18.82 | 19.15 – 22.21 |
| 2030 | 20.33 | 23.09 | 17.93 | 18.02 – 22.63 |
| 2035 | 19.45 | 23.36 | 16.06 | 15.42 – 23.49 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.38· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.12typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.25(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.9 | 4.2 | -0.56 | 1.31 – 2.5 |
| 2029 | 1.49 | 5.47 | -2 | 0.44 – 2.54 |
| 2031 | 1.29 | 6.43 | -2 | -0.08 – 2.66 |
| 2036 | 1.13 | 8.4 | -2 | -0.84 – 3.1 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.25· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed358.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 358.3m | 375.2m | 342.6m | 347.2m – 369.4m |
| 2028 | 359.5m | 376.4m | 343.7m | 332.9m – 386.1m |
| 2030 | 360.6m | 377.7m | 344.8m | 319.7m – 401.6m |
| 2035 | 363.5m | 380.7m | 347.6m | 288.1m – 439m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead359.5m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.8mtypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.52 | 12.61 | -6.81 | 0.1 – 2.93 |
| 2028 | 1.9 | 15 | -10 | -0.59 – 4.4 |
| 2030 | 2.29 | 15 | -10 | -0.99 – 5.58 |
| 2035 | 3.26 | 15 | -10 | -1.65 – 8.17 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.55· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.9typical miss · 1 realized · 137% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed594.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 607.7bn | 706.3bn | 509.1bn | 582.9bn – 632.5bn |
| 2028 | 645.5bn | 816.3bn | 474.7bn | 588.4bn – 702.7bn |
| 2030 | 683.4bn | 903.9bn | 462.9bn | 595bn – 771.8bn |
| 2035 | 778bn | 1.1T | 466.2bn | 605.8bn – 950.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead616.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.34 | 4.33 | 2.34 | 3.13 – 3.54 |
| 2028 | 2.93 | 4.66 | 1.2 | 2.53 – 3.34 |
| 2030 | 2.74 | 4.97 | 0.5 | 2.18 – 3.3 |
| 2035 | 2.58 | 5.73 | 0 | 1.68 – 3.47 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.77· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.3T | 2.7T | 1.9T | 2.2T – 2.4T |
| 2028 | 2.8T | 3.4T | 2.1T | 2.5T – 3T |
| 2030 | 3.2T | 4.1T | 2.3T | 2.8T – 3.6T |
| 2035 | 4.4T | 5.7T | 3.2T | 3.5T – 5.3T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.3T· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.95 | 6.61 | 5.29 | 5.75 – 6.14 |
| 2028 | 5.28 | 6.42 | 4.13 | 4.85 – 5.71 |
| 2030 | 4.61 | 6.08 | 3.13 | 4.01 – 5.2 |
| 2035 | 2.93 | 5.01 | 0.84 | 2.14 – 3.72 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.37· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/EMU · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 15.7T | 2024 (6.35) |
| 2028 | 15.8T | 2025 (6.28) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 23697183114972.656 + -1263233972754.8162·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.541 over 65 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.16 | 2025 (18T) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 4.1145 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.536 over 63 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.95 | 2023 (16T) |
| 2027 | 0.73 | 2024 (16.6T) |
| 2028 | 0.23 | 2025 (18T) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 6.5654 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/EMU?indicator= · API docs
