Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Estonia: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Estonia's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.879 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 23.01 | 2024 (43.1bn) |
Latest observed-1.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.11 | 2.67 | -4.89 | -1.9 – -0.32 |
| 2029 | -1.13 | 5.43 | -7.68 | -2.52 – 0.26 |
| 2031 | -1.15 | 7.31 | -9.61 | -2.97 – 0.67 |
| 2036 | -1.2 | 10.77 | -13.16 | -3.83 – 1.44 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.45· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 79.47 | 93.42 | 67.38 | 76.21 – 82.74 |
| 2028 | 81.69 | 105.85 | 60.75 | 74.32 – 89.06 |
| 2030 | 83.91 | 115.09 | 56.88 | 72.74 – 95.08 |
| 2035 | 89.45 | 133.56 | 51.23 | 68.84 – 110.07 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead79.44· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.6typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 54.1bn | 58bn | 50.8bn | 52.5bn – 55.8bn |
| 2029 | 60.5bn | 67.2bn | 54.7bn | 56bn – 65bn |
| 2031 | 66.9bn | 75.6bn | 59.4bn | 59.3bn – 74.5bn |
| 2036 | 82.8bn | 95.1bn | 72.2bn | 65.6bn – 100bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead54.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.56 | 10.51 | -6.21 | 0.04 – 3.07 |
| 2029 | 1.91 | 12 | -10 | -0.77 – 4.59 |
| 2031 | 2.27 | 12 | -10 | -1.25 – 5.79 |
| 2036 | 3.15 | 12 | -10 | -2.07 – 8.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.46· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 39.5k | 42.5k | 36.9k | 38.3k – 40.7k |
| 2029 | 44k | 49.3k | 39.5k | 40.8k – 47.3k |
| 2031 | 48.6k | 55.3k | 42.8k | 43.1k – 54.1k |
| 2036 | 60k | 69.5k | 51.7k | 47.5k – 72.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead39.6k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.25 | 5.75 | 0.57 | 2.58 – 3.92 |
| 2029 | 2.83 | 7.16 | 0 | 1.63 – 4.03 |
| 2031 | 2.63 | 8.21 | 0 | 1.04 – 4.21 |
| 2036 | 2.46 | 10.36 | 0 | 0.12 – 4.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.67· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 29.93 | 35.75 | 23.22 | 28.56 – 31.31 |
| 2029 | 34.2 | 44.28 | 22.58 | 31.01 – 37.39 |
| 2031 | 38.47 | 51.48 | 23.46 | 33.39 – 43.55 |
| 2036 | 49.14 | 67.53 | 27.92 | 38.45 – 59.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.19· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed77.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 78.74 | 92.12 | 65.37 | 75.44 – 82.05 |
| 2028 | 81.43 | 104.6 | 58.26 | 73.98 – 88.89 |
| 2030 | 84.12 | 114.04 | 54.21 | 72.82 – 95.43 |
| 2035 | 90.85 | 133.15 | 48.55 | 69.84 – 111.86 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead78.42· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.39typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.47 | 20.62 | -5 | -0.39 – 7.33 |
| 2029 | 2.03 | 31.73 | -5 | -4.65 – 8.71 |
| 2031 | 0.59 | 38.93 | -5 | -5 – 9.17 |
| 2036 | -3.01 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 9.49 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.9· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.28 | 16.54 | -5 | 0.28 – 6.27 |
| 2029 | 4.5 | 27.48 | -5 | -0.81 – 9.81 |
| 2031 | 4.94 | 34.61 | -5 | -2.03 – 11.91 |
| 2036 | 5.17 | 47.12 | -5 | -4.96 – 15.3 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.27· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.87 | 29.32 | 19.15 | 22.71 – 25.03 |
| 2028 | 22.84 | 32.27 | 14.66 | 20.39 – 25.28 |
| 2030 | 21.8 | 33.99 | 11.24 | 18.32 – 25.29 |
| 2035 | 19.22 | 36.45 | 4.28 | 13.68 – 24.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.72· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.24typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.3m – 1.4m |
| 2029 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.3m – 1.5m |
| 2031 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.2m – 1.5m |
| 2036 | 1.4m | 1.4m | 1.3m | 1.1m – 1.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.4m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.16 | 15 | -8.08 | 1.23 – 5.08 |
| 2028 | 6 | 15 | -10 | 2.47 – 9.53 |
| 2030 | 8.85 | 15 | -10 | 3.95 – 13.75 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 6.68 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.77· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.27typical miss · 1 realized · 123% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.5bn | 3.2bn | 1.7bn | 2.3bn – 2.6bn |
| 2028 | 2.6bn | 4bn | 1.3bn | 2.3bn – 3bn |
| 2030 | 2.8bn | 4.5bn | 1.1bn | 2.3bn – 3.3bn |
| 2035 | 3.2bn | 5.6bn | 777m | 2.3bn – 4.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.72(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.7 | 1.05 | 0.35 | 0.63 – 0.77 |
| 2028 | 0.66 | 1.27 | 0.06 | 0.52 – 0.8 |
| 2030 | 0.65 | 1.43 | 0 | 0.45 – 0.85 |
| 2035 | 0.64 | 1.74 | 0 | 0.31 – 0.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.76· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.5bn | 3.3bn | 1.7bn | 2.3bn – 2.7bn |
| 2028 | 2.7bn | 4bn | 1.3bn | 2.3bn – 3bn |
| 2030 | 2.9bn | 4.6bn | 1.1bn | 2.4bn – 3.3bn |
| 2035 | 3.3bn | 5.7bn | 860m | 2.4bn – 4.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.73 | 9.44 | 6.02 | 7.35 – 8.12 |
| 2029 | 8.59 | 11.55 | 5.63 | 7.73 – 9.46 |
| 2031 | 9.45 | 13.27 | 5.63 | 8.11 – 10.79 |
| 2036 | 11.6 | 17 | 6.2 | 8.92 – 14.29 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.92· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/EST · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 25 | 2025 (47bn) |
| 2029 | 27.34 | 2026 (51.6bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 1.0455 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.845 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 57bn | 2026 (27.8) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 3842724088.1424 + 1911255427.7612·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.696 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.89 | 2024 (43.1bn) |
| 2028 | 5.18 | 2025 (47bn) |
| 2029 | 6.69 | 2026 (51.6bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -10.3326 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.625 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.03 | 2026 (7.3) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ -8.4915 + 1.3047·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.573 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.9 | 2026 (1.4) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 12.9086 + -1.434·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.524 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.76 | 2024 (-1.2) |
| 2028 | 7.47 | 2025 (-0.2) |
| 2029 | 7.73 | 2026 (-1.1) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 7.4068 + -0.2912·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/EST?indicator= · API docs
