Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
EUQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, EUQ's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.908 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.2 | 2025 (77.2) |
Latest observed1.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.65 | 3.36 | -0.06 | 1.27 – 2.03 |
| 2028 | 1.55 | 4.51 | -1.41 | 0.87 – 2.23 |
| 2030 | 1.45 | 5.28 | -2.38 | 0.55 – 2.35 |
| 2035 | 1.2 | 6.61 | -4.21 | -0.1 – 2.5 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.79· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.15typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.4T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.3T | 34.1T | 28.8T | 30.3T – 32.3T |
| 2028 | 34.4T | 39.3T | 30.1T | 31.8T – 36.9T |
| 2030 | 37.5T | 43.8T | 32T | 33.2T – 41.8T |
| 2035 | 45.3T | 54.2T | 37.5T | 35.9T – 54.7T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead33.9T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.1Ttypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.67 | 12 | -8.32 | -0.28 – 3.62 |
| 2028 | 2.21 | 12 | -10 | -1.23 – 5.64 |
| 2030 | 2.75 | 12 | -10 | -1.77 – 7.26 |
| 2035 | 4.09 | 12 | -10 | -2.63 – 10.82 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.79· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.37typical miss · 1 realized · 28% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.8k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.3k | 46.1k | 39k | 41k – 43.6k |
| 2028 | 46.4k | 53k | 40.7k | 43k – 49.9k |
| 2030 | 50.6k | 59.1k | 43.2k | 44.8k – 56.3k |
| 2035 | 61k | 73k | 50.5k | 48.3k – 73.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead45.9k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.5ktypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed77.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 77.26 | 86.17 | 66.98 | 74.65 – 79.87 |
| 2028 | 77.38 | 92.81 | 59.57 | 71.29 – 83.47 |
| 2030 | 77.5 | 97.42 | 54.51 | 68.23 – 86.76 |
| 2035 | 77.79 | 105.97 | 45.28 | 61.01 – 94.58 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead77.62· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.24typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.03 | 11.43 | -3.9 | 2.32 – 5.73 |
| 2028 | 4.17 | 16.98 | -5 | 1.12 – 7.21 |
| 2030 | 4.31 | 20.85 | -5 | 0.29 – 8.32 |
| 2035 | 4.66 | 28.06 | -5 | -1.28 – 10.59 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.71· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.33typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed738.5m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 738.5m | 773.4m | 706.1m | 715.6m – 761.4m |
| 2028 | 738.1m | 773m | 705.7m | 683.5m – 792.7m |
| 2030 | 737.6m | 772.5m | 705.3m | 653.9m – 821.4m |
| 2035 | 736.6m | 771.4m | 704.2m | 583.8m – 889.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead738.3m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.4ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/EUQ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -5.1128 + 0.0948·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.837 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 81.78 | 2023 (26.1T) |
| 2027 | 83.72 | 2024 (27.5T) |
| 2028 | 87.29 | 2025 (30.1T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 45.5099 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.764 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19T | 2025 (1.7) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 10103617070508.695 + 5226449272018.314·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/EUQ?indicator= · API docs
