Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
EUQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, EUQ's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.896 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.24 | 2026 (78.2) |
Latest observed1.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.42 | 3.15 | -0.32 | 1.04 – 1.8 |
| 2029 | 1.26 | 4.26 | -1.75 | 0.58 – 1.93 |
| 2031 | 1.1 | 4.97 | -2.78 | 0.22 – 1.97 |
| 2036 | 0.69 | 6.17 | -4.79 | -0.59 – 1.97 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.54· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.22typical miss · 20 realized · 65% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.3T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 33.8T | 36.5T | 31.5T | 32.8T – 34.9T |
| 2029 | 37.6T | 42.3T | 33.6T | 34.8T – 40.4T |
| 2031 | 41.4T | 47.4T | 36.2T | 36.7T – 46.1T |
| 2036 | 50.9T | 59.4T | 43.5T | 40.3T – 61.5T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead33.8T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.1Ttypical miss · 20 realized · 14% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.87 | 4.19 | -2 | 0.3 – 1.44 |
| 2029 | -0.12 | 5.62 | -5.1 | -1.13 – 0.88 |
| 2031 | -1.11 | 6.3 | -7.54 | -2.44 – 0.21 |
| 2036 | -3.6 | 6.88 | -10 | -5.92 – -1.27 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.79· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.99typical miss · 20 realized · 321% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.8k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 45.8k | 49.4k | 42.7k | 44.4k – 47.2k |
| 2029 | 50.9k | 57.1k | 45.5k | 47.1k – 54.7k |
| 2031 | 56k | 64.1k | 49k | 49.7k – 62.4k |
| 2036 | 68.8k | 80.2k | 59k | 54.6k – 83.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead45.8k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.6ktypical miss · 20 realized · 14% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 78.4 | 87.16 | 68.29 | 75.8 – 81 |
| 2029 | 78.8 | 93.97 | 61.29 | 72.68 – 84.91 |
| 2031 | 79.19 | 98.78 | 56.59 | 69.85 – 88.54 |
| 2036 | 80.19 | 107.89 | 48.23 | 63.1 – 97.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead78.36· skill-weighted across models
Track record±9.63typical miss · 20 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.36 | 10.51 | -4.3 | 1.72 – 5 |
| 2029 | 2.94 | 15.32 | -5 | 0.05 – 5.82 |
| 2031 | 2.52 | 18.51 | -5 | -1.23 – 6.26 |
| 2036 | 1.47 | 24.08 | -5 | -3.78 – 6.72 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.29· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.06typical miss · 20 realized · 125% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed738.7m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 738.7m | 773.6m | 706.3m | 715.8m – 761.6m |
| 2029 | 738.4m | 773.3m | 706m | 683.8m – 793m |
| 2031 | 738.1m | 773m | 705.8m | 654.3m – 821.9m |
| 2036 | 737.5m | 772.3m | 705.1m | 584.5m – 890.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead738.5m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.7mtypical miss · 20 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-03 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/EUQ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -4.929 + 0.0917·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.84 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 83.11 | 2024 (27.4T) |
| 2028 | 86.65 | 2025 (30T) |
| 2029 | 89.85 | 2026 (32.3T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 45.9769 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.771 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 19.8T | 2025 (1.7) |
| 2028 | 18.8T | 2026 (1.5) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 10553160029276.117 + 5466412485261.681·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/EUQ?indicator= · API docs
