Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
European Union: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, European Union's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by CPI inflation by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.767 over 7 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.5T | 2024 (2.44) |
Latest observed49.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50.1 | 56.68 | 44.4 | 48.36 – 51.84 |
| 2028 | 51.09 | 62.48 | 41.21 | 47.01 – 55.17 |
| 2030 | 52.07 | 66.78 | 39.32 | 45.8 – 58.34 |
| 2035 | 54.53 | 75.34 | 36.5 | 42.84 – 66.23 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead50.1· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.21typical miss · 25 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.2T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.1T | 24.2T | 20.3T | 21.5T – 22.8T |
| 2028 | 24.4T | 28T | 21.2T | 22.6T – 26.2T |
| 2030 | 26.6T | 31.3T | 22.5T | 23.6T – 29.6T |
| 2035 | 32.2T | 38.8T | 26.4T | 25.5T – 38.8T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2Ttypical miss · 25 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.04 | 12 | -7.96 | 0.08 – 4 |
| 2028 | 3.08 | 12 | -10 | -0.4 – 6.57 |
| 2030 | 4.13 | 12 | -10 | -0.51 – 8.76 |
| 2035 | 6.73 | 12 | -10 | -0.43 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.94· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.64typical miss · 25 realized · 461% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49k | 53.6k | 44.9k | 47.4k – 50.5k |
| 2028 | 53.7k | 61.8k | 46.6k | 49.7k – 57.6k |
| 2030 | 58.4k | 68.8k | 49.3k | 51.7k – 65k |
| 2035 | 70.1k | 84.9k | 57.3k | 55.6k – 84.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead48.8k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.4ktypical miss · 25 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed45.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 46.28 | 54.09 | 38.47 | 44.34 – 48.22 |
| 2028 | 47.21 | 60.74 | 33.67 | 42.87 – 51.55 |
| 2030 | 48.14 | 65.61 | 30.66 | 41.61 – 54.66 |
| 2035 | 50.46 | 75.17 | 25.75 | 38.6 – 62.31 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead46.32· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.37typical miss · 25 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.47(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.84 | 10.12 | -4.96 | 1.18 – 4.5 |
| 2028 | 2.88 | 15.49 | -5 | -0.05 – 5.82 |
| 2030 | 2.93 | 19.21 | -5 | -0.91 – 6.77 |
| 2035 | 3.04 | 26.06 | -5 | -2.55 – 8.63 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.36· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.54typical miss · 4 realized · 235% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.16 | 22.33 | 20.15 | 20.51 – 21.82 |
| 2028 | 20.81 | 22.83 | 19.07 | 19.27 – 22.35 |
| 2030 | 20.46 | 23.06 | 18.21 | 18.14 – 22.79 |
| 2035 | 19.59 | 23.27 | 16.4 | 15.52 – 23.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.15typical miss · 25 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed451.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 450.8m | 472.1m | 431m | 436.8m – 464.7m |
| 2028 | 451.7m | 473.1m | 431.9m | 418.3m – 485.2m |
| 2030 | 452.7m | 474.1m | 432.9m | 401.3m – 504.1m |
| 2035 | 455.2m | 476.7m | 435.2m | 360.8m – 549.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead451.8m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.1mtypical miss · 25 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.8 | 12.61 | -6.3 | 0.43 – 3.18 |
| 2028 | 2.2 | 15 | -10 | -0.24 – 4.65 |
| 2030 | 2.6 | 15 | -10 | -0.63 – 5.83 |
| 2035 | 3.59 | 15 | -10 | -1.25 – 8.44 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.81· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.8typical miss · 25 realized · 239% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.02 | 5.22 | 2.82 | 3.78 – 4.27 |
| 2028 | 3.79 | 5.87 | 1.71 | 3.29 – 4.29 |
| 2030 | 3.68 | 6.36 | 1 | 2.97 – 4.38 |
| 2035 | 3.58 | 7.38 | 0 | 2.43 – 4.74 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.25· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.67 | 6.3 | 5.03 | 5.48 – 5.85 |
| 2028 | 5.15 | 6.25 | 4.05 | 4.73 – 5.56 |
| 2030 | 4.63 | 6.05 | 3.21 | 4.04 – 5.21 |
| 2035 | 3.33 | 5.33 | 1.32 | 2.49 – 4.17 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.22typical miss · 20 realized · 52% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-01 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/EUU · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 17.5T | 2025 (2.47) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 16210891064357.684 + 512113814005.3456·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.687 over 8 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.6 | 2025 (2.47) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 6.9286 + -0.1335·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.52 over 65 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.03 | 2025 (21.2T) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 4.0108 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.513 over 9 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.81 | 2023 (6.03) |
| 2027 | 4.9 | 2024 (5.92) |
| 2028 | 4.89 | 2025 (5.93) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 9.9643 + -0.8556·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/EUU?indicator= · API docs
