Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Finland: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Finland's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.863 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 74.29 | 2023 (295.2bn) |
Latest observed0.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1 | 3.99 | -1.79 | 0.49 – 1.71 |
| 2028 | 1.31 | 6.32 | -3.7 | 0.22 – 2.39 |
| 2030 | 1.51 | 7.98 | -4.95 | 0.07 – 2.95 |
| 2035 | 2.02 | 11.17 | -7.12 | -0.17 – 4.21 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.29· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.8typical miss · 1 realized · 267% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.98 | 50.41 | 36.54 | 41.23 – 44.73 |
| 2028 | 44.28 | 57.15 | 33.13 | 40.32 – 48.24 |
| 2030 | 45.58 | 62.2 | 31.18 | 39.56 – 51.6 |
| 2035 | 48.84 | 72.33 | 28.47 | 37.67 – 60.01 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead42.59· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.36typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed317bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 324.6bn | 351.4bn | 301.3bn | 314.5bn – 334.6bn |
| 2028 | 343.2bn | 389.7bn | 302.9bn | 317.8bn – 368.6bn |
| 2030 | 361.8bn | 421.8bn | 309.9bn | 320.8bn – 402.9bn |
| 2035 | 408.5bn | 493.3bn | 334.9bn | 323.7bn – 493.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead347.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±14bntypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.67 | 6.3 | -4.21 | -0.29 – 1.62 |
| 2028 | 1.67 | 11.42 | -6.79 | -0.04 – 3.37 |
| 2030 | 2.67 | 12 | -8.24 | 0.36 – 4.98 |
| 2035 | 5.18 | 12 | -10 | 1.38 – 8.97 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.79· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.03typical miss · 1 realized · 61% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed56.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 57.3k | 62k | 53.1k | 55.5k – 59k |
| 2028 | 60.1k | 68.3k | 52.9k | 55.6k – 64.5k |
| 2030 | 62.9k | 73.5k | 53.6k | 55.7k – 70k |
| 2035 | 69.9k | 85k | 56.8k | 55.4k – 84.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead61.6k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.9ktypical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.8(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.13 | 5.01 | 1.11 | 2.61 – 3.64 |
| 2029 | 2.32 | 5.59 | 0 | 1.41 – 3.24 |
| 2031 | 1.93 | 6.15 | 0 | 0.74 – 3.12 |
| 2036 | 1.62 | 7.58 | 0 | 0 – 3.34 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.95· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed90.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 90.66 | 97.85 | 82.37 | 87.85 – 93.47 |
| 2028 | 95.19 | 107.64 | 80.82 | 88.14 – 102.23 |
| 2030 | 99.71 | 115.79 | 81.16 | 88.39 – 111.03 |
| 2035 | 111.02 | 133.76 | 84.78 | 87.99 – 134.05 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead92.06· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.06typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.6 | 50.17 | 33.03 | 39.62 – 43.57 |
| 2028 | 42.65 | 57.49 | 27.81 | 38.33 – 46.97 |
| 2030 | 43.7 | 62.87 | 24.54 | 37.27 – 50.13 |
| 2035 | 46.34 | 73.44 | 19.24 | 34.78 – 57.9 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead41.38· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.31typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.23 | 6.78 | -5 | -1.23 – 1.7 |
| 2028 | -1.51 | 9.83 | -5 | -4.09 – 1.08 |
| 2030 | -3.25 | 11.38 | -5 | -5 – 0.26 |
| 2035 | -5 | 15.69 | -5 | -5 – 0.39 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.46· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.17typical miss · 1 realized · 90% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.7(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.52 | 9.24 | -4.69 | 0.99 – 4.05 |
| 2029 | 2.34 | 13.98 | -5 | -0.35 – 5.03 |
| 2031 | 2.28 | 17.3 | -5 | -1.24 – 5.79 |
| 2036 | 2.24 | 23.5 | -5 | -2.83 – 7.31 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.08· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.24 | 22.51 | 20.13 | 20.58 – 21.9 |
| 2028 | 19.78 | 21.99 | 17.87 | 18.32 – 21.25 |
| 2030 | 18.33 | 21.18 | 15.86 | 16.25 – 20.41 |
| 2035 | 14.7 | 18.72 | 11.21 | 11.65 – 17.74 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.19· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.27typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.6m | 5.9m | 5.4m | 5.5m – 5.8m |
| 2028 | 5.7m | 5.9m | 5.4m | 5.2m – 6.1m |
| 2030 | 5.7m | 6m | 5.4m | 5m – 6.3m |
| 2035 | 5.8m | 6m | 5.5m | 4.6m – 7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.6m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±10.3ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4 | 5.47 | -1.65 | 0.87 – 1.93 |
| 2028 | 2.72 | 9.77 | -2.57 | 1.71 – 3.73 |
| 2030 | 4.04 | 13.15 | -2.79 | 2.58 – 5.5 |
| 2035 | 7.34 | 15 | -2.31 | 4.56 – 10.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.88· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.85typical miss · 1 realized · 105% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.1bn | 19.5bn | 14.8bn | 16.5bn – 17.7bn |
| 2028 | 19.2bn | 23.3bn | 15.1bn | 17.6bn – 20.7bn |
| 2030 | 21.3bn | 26.5bn | 16bn | 18.8bn – 23.8bn |
| 2035 | 26.5bn | 33.9bn | 19bn | 21bn – 31.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.53 | 1.88 | 1.18 | 1.45 – 1.61 |
| 2028 | 1.4 | 2 | 0.8 | 1.24 – 1.55 |
| 2030 | 1.33 | 2.11 | 0.56 | 1.11 – 1.56 |
| 2035 | 1.28 | 2.37 | 0.18 | 0.91 – 1.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.7· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.9bn | 27bn | 20.8bn | 23bn – 24.7bn |
| 2028 | 27.5bn | 32.9bn | 22.2bn | 25.4bn – 29.7bn |
| 2030 | 31.2bn | 38.1bn | 24.3bn | 27.6bn – 34.7bn |
| 2035 | 40.3bn | 50.1bn | 30.5bn | 32bn – 48.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.78 | 11.33 | 8.23 | 9.39 – 10.18 |
| 2028 | 10.43 | 13.11 | 7.75 | 9.52 – 11.34 |
| 2030 | 11.07 | 14.54 | 7.61 | 9.66 – 12.49 |
| 2035 | 12.69 | 17.58 | 7.79 | 9.91 – 15.47 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.62· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.42typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/FIN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 75.07 | 2024 (298.7bn) |
| 2028 | 79.11 | 2025 (317bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 9.1552 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.812 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.7 | 2023 (7.15) |
| 2027 | 0.32 | 2024 (8.4) |
| 2028 | 1.18 | 2025 (9.46) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -6.4959 + 0.8112·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.769 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 318.8bn | 2025 (88.4) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 47432637533.0176 + 3070188188.9028·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.609 over 63 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.03 | 2023 (295.2bn) |
| 2027 | -0.06 | 2024 (298.7bn) |
| 2028 | -0.54 | 2025 (317bn) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 7.7051 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.508 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.7 | 2024 (8.4) |
| 2027 | 2.17 | 2025 (9.46) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ -2.0335 + 0.444·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/FIN?indicator= · API docs
