Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Fiji: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Fiji's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.695 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.2 | 2026 (82.5) |
Latest observed-12.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -12.35 | -1.96 | -22.74 | -14.67 – -10.03 |
| 2029 | -12.06 | 5.94 | -30 | -16.31 – -7.81 |
| 2031 | -11.76 | 11.47 | -30 | -17.44 – -6.08 |
| 2036 | -11.02 | 21.83 | -30 | -19.49 – -2.56 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-12.66· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.41(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 55.7 | 76.61 | 37.57 | 51.82 – 59.57 |
| 2027 | 58.27 | 94.5 | 26.88 | 50.3 – 66.25 |
| 2029 | 60.85 | 107.63 | 20.32 | 49.3 – 72.4 |
| 2034 | 67.3 | 133.45 | 9.98 | 47.08 – 87.52 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead51.34· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.6bn | 7.8bn | 5.5bn | 6.3bn – 6.8bn |
| 2029 | 7.1bn | 9.2bn | 5.3bn | 6.5bn – 7.7bn |
| 2031 | 7.7bn | 10.4bn | 5.3bn | 6.8bn – 8.6bn |
| 2036 | 9.1bn | 12.9bn | 5.8bn | 7.2bn – 11bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.04 | 12 | -10 | -1.77 – 5.86 |
| 2029 | 1 | 12 | -10 | -5.6 – 7.6 |
| 2031 | -0.05 | 12 | -10 | -8.58 – 8.49 |
| 2036 | -2.66 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 9.72 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.58· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7k | 8.3k | 5.9k | 6.7k – 7.3k |
| 2029 | 7.6k | 9.8k | 5.6k | 6.9k – 8.2k |
| 2031 | 8.1k | 11.1k | 5.6k | 7.1k – 9.1k |
| 2036 | 9.5k | 13.7k | 5.9k | 7.5k – 11.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed82.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 87.27 | 103.06 | 69.04 | 83.44 – 91.09 |
| 2029 | 96.8 | 124.16 | 65.22 | 87.94 – 105.65 |
| 2031 | 106.33 | 141.65 | 65.57 | 92.39 – 120.27 |
| 2036 | 130.15 | 180.11 | 72.51 | 101.64 – 158.67 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead82.99· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64.56(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 66.88 | 83.69 | 50.07 | 63.24 – 70.52 |
| 2027 | 71.53 | 100.65 | 42.41 | 63.64 – 79.42 |
| 2029 | 76.18 | 113.77 | 38.58 | 64.33 – 88.02 |
| 2034 | 87.79 | 140.96 | 34.63 | 65.61 – 109.98 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead65.88· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-1.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.1 | 11.78 | -4.14 | 2.33 – 5.87 |
| 2029 | 9.11 | 22.43 | -5 | 5.73 – 12.5 |
| 2031 | 14.13 | 31.32 | -4.28 | 9.19 – 19.07 |
| 2036 | 26.67 | 50 | 0.63 | 17.02 – 36.33 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.23· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.09(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20.35 | 22.3 | 18.65 | 19.72 – 20.98 |
| 2027 | 21.03 | 24.42 | 18.09 | 19.47 – 22.59 |
| 2029 | 21.71 | 26.09 | 17.92 | 19.25 – 24.18 |
| 2034 | 23.42 | 29.6 | 18.06 | 18.56 – 28.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.26· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed933.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 932.5k | 976.6k | 891.6k | 903.6k – 961.4k |
| 2029 | 933.5k | 977.6k | 892.5k | 864.4k – 1m |
| 2031 | 934.4k | 978.5k | 893.4k | 828.3k – 1m |
| 2036 | 936.7k | 981k | 895.6k | 742.4k – 1.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead936.2k· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.34 | 15 | -10 | -1.26 – 3.95 |
| 2028 | -0.63 | 15 | -10 | -5.16 – 3.89 |
| 2030 | -2.61 | 15 | -10 | -8.6 – 3.37 |
| 2035 | -7.56 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 1.82 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.12· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.84typical miss · 1 realized · 76% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.7bn | 2bn | 1.4bn | 1.6bn – 1.8bn |
| 2028 | 1.8bn | 2.3bn | 1.4bn | 1.7bn – 2bn |
| 2030 | 2bn | 2.6bn | 1.3bn | 1.7bn – 2.2bn |
| 2035 | 2.3bn | 3.1bn | 1.4bn | 1.8bn – 2.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.44(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.47 | 6.91 | 2.02 | 4.02 – 4.91 |
| 2027 | 4.5 | 8.74 | 0.26 | 3.63 – 5.36 |
| 2029 | 4.51 | 9.98 | 0 | 3.31 – 5.71 |
| 2034 | 4.52 | 12.26 | 0 | 2.61 – 6.43 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.47· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.7bn | 2bn | 1.4bn | 1.6bn – 1.8bn |
| 2028 | 1.8bn | 2.3bn | 1.4bn | 1.7bn – 2bn |
| 2030 | 2bn | 2.6bn | 1.4bn | 1.7bn – 2.2bn |
| 2035 | 2.3bn | 3.2bn | 1.4bn | 1.8bn – 2.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.96 | 5.31 | 4.62 | 4.81 – 5.12 |
| 2029 | 4.89 | 5.48 | 4.3 | 4.53 – 5.26 |
| 2031 | 4.82 | 5.59 | 4.06 | 4.27 – 5.37 |
| 2036 | 4.64 | 5.72 | 3.56 | 3.68 – 5.61 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.95· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/FJI · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 3.6417 + 0.0189·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.691 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 63.57 | 2026 (5) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ -73.1706 + 27.3474·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.635 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.5bn | 2025 (78.7) |
| 2028 | 5.8bn | 2026 (82.5) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 109359587.8955 + 68869006.0268·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.594 over 57 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.62 | 2025 (6.2bn) |
| 2028 | -0.85 | 2026 (6.4bn) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 8.8336 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/FJI?indicator= · API docs
