Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Fiji: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Fiji's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.687 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.12 | 2025 (77.1) |
Latest observed-12.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.42 | 2.84 | -17.68 | -9.63 – -5.21 |
| 2028 | -6.85 | 10.92 | -24.62 | -10.81 – -2.9 |
| 2030 | -6.29 | 16.65 | -29.23 | -11.47 – -1.1 |
| 2035 | -4.88 | 27.56 | -30 | -12.28 – 2.52 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-13.14· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.48typical miss · 1 realized · 43% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.41(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 55.7 | 76.61 | 37.57 | 51.82 – 59.57 |
| 2027 | 58.27 | 94.5 | 26.88 | 50.3 – 66.25 |
| 2029 | 60.85 | 107.63 | 20.32 | 49.3 – 72.4 |
| 2034 | 67.3 | 133.45 | 9.98 | 47.08 – 87.52 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead51.34· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.4bn | 7.7bn | 5.4bn | 6.2bn – 6.7bn |
| 2028 | 7.1bn | 9.2bn | 5.2bn | 6.5bn – 7.7bn |
| 2030 | 7.7bn | 10.5bn | 5.3bn | 6.7bn – 8.6bn |
| 2035 | 9.2bn | 13.1bn | 5.8bn | 7.3bn – 11.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±121.1mtypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.47 | 12 | -10 | -1.64 – 6.57 |
| 2028 | 1.14 | 12 | -10 | -5.95 – 8.23 |
| 2030 | -0.19 | 12 | -10 | -9.35 – 8.98 |
| 2035 | -3.51 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 9.9 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.96· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.57typical miss · 1 realized · 30% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.9k | 8.2k | 5.7k | 6.6k – 7.2k |
| 2028 | 7.5k | 9.8k | 5.5k | 6.8k – 8.1k |
| 2030 | 8.1k | 11.1k | 5.5k | 7.1k – 9.1k |
| 2035 | 9.6k | 13.8k | 5.9k | 7.6k – 11.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.3k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±151.41typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 82.39 | 98.71 | 63.56 | 78.56 – 86.21 |
| 2028 | 92.96 | 121.22 | 60.34 | 84.15 – 101.77 |
| 2030 | 103.53 | 140.02 | 61.42 | 89.63 – 117.43 |
| 2035 | 129.96 | 181.57 | 70.41 | 101.23 – 158.69 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead79.75· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.49typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64.56(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 66.88 | 83.69 | 50.07 | 63.24 – 70.52 |
| 2027 | 71.53 | 100.65 | 42.41 | 63.64 – 79.42 |
| 2029 | 76.18 | 113.77 | 38.58 | 64.33 – 88.02 |
| 2034 | 87.79 | 140.96 | 34.63 | 65.61 – 109.98 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead65.88· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-1.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.54 | 4.03 | -5 | -5 – -1.8 |
| 2028 | -5 | 8.1 | -5 | -5 – -1.86 |
| 2030 | -5 | 11.91 | -5 | -5 – -0.85 |
| 2035 | -5 | 18.91 | -5 | -5 – 1.1 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.75· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.74typical miss · 1 realized · 184% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.09(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20.35 | 22.3 | 18.65 | 19.72 – 20.98 |
| 2027 | 21.03 | 24.42 | 18.09 | 19.47 – 22.59 |
| 2029 | 21.71 | 26.09 | 17.92 | 19.25 – 24.18 |
| 2034 | 23.42 | 29.6 | 18.06 | 18.56 – 28.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.26· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed933.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 932.1k | 976.1k | 891.2k | 903.2k – 961k |
| 2028 | 936.9k | 981.2k | 895.8k | 867.6k – 1m |
| 2030 | 941.7k | 986.2k | 900.4k | 834.8k – 1m |
| 2035 | 953.7k | 998.8k | 911.9k | 755.9k – 1.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead936.2k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.9ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.34 | 15 | -10 | -1.26 – 3.95 |
| 2028 | -0.63 | 15 | -10 | -5.16 – 3.89 |
| 2030 | -2.61 | 15 | -10 | -8.6 – 3.37 |
| 2035 | -7.56 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 1.82 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.12· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.84typical miss · 1 realized · 76% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.7bn | 2bn | 1.4bn | 1.6bn – 1.8bn |
| 2028 | 1.8bn | 2.3bn | 1.4bn | 1.7bn – 2bn |
| 2030 | 2bn | 2.6bn | 1.3bn | 1.7bn – 2.2bn |
| 2035 | 2.3bn | 3.1bn | 1.4bn | 1.8bn – 2.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.44(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.47 | 6.91 | 2.02 | 4.02 – 4.91 |
| 2027 | 4.5 | 8.74 | 0.26 | 3.63 – 5.36 |
| 2029 | 4.51 | 9.98 | 0 | 3.31 – 5.71 |
| 2034 | 4.52 | 12.26 | 0 | 2.61 – 6.43 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.47· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.7bn | 2bn | 1.4bn | 1.6bn – 1.8bn |
| 2028 | 1.8bn | 2.3bn | 1.4bn | 1.7bn – 2bn |
| 2030 | 2bn | 2.6bn | 1.4bn | 1.7bn – 2.2bn |
| 2035 | 2.3bn | 3.2bn | 1.4bn | 1.8bn – 2.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4 | 5.66 | 5.13 | 5.23 – 5.57 |
| 2028 | 5.5 | 5.85 | 5.15 | 5.09 – 5.91 |
| 2030 | 5.6 | 6.06 | 5.15 | 4.97 – 6.24 |
| 2035 | 5.86 | 6.5 | 5.22 | 4.64 – 7.07 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.95· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.4typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/FJI · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 3.6148 + 0.0195·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.648 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 71.27 | 2025 (5.35) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ -64.5529 + 25.401·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.594 over 56 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.55 | 2024 (6bn) |
| 2027 | -0.92 | 2025 (6.2bn) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 8.9338 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.588 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4bn | 2024 (78.8) |
| 2027 | 5.3bn | 2025 (77.1) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 296765381.1063 + 64686806.4967·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/FJI?indicator= · API docs
