Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Gabon: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2016, 2018, 2020, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Gabon's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.921 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.15 | 2024 (20.9bn) |
Latest observed1.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.08 | 1.87 | -16.02 | -9.02 – -5.14 |
| 2028 | -9.24 | 6.25 | -24.73 | -12.84 – -5.63 |
| 2030 | -11.4 | 8.6 | -30 | -16.39 – -6.4 |
| 2035 | -16.8 | 11.49 | -30 | -25.26 – -8.34 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.82· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8.38typical miss · 1 realized · 645% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 57.03 | 71.73 | 44.29 | 54.02 – 60.04 |
| 2028 | 60.1 | 85.56 | 38.04 | 53.58 – 66.63 |
| 2030 | 63.18 | 96.04 | 34.7 | 53.43 – 72.93 |
| 2035 | 70.86 | 117.34 | 30.59 | 52.89 – 88.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead54.29· skill-weighted across models
Track record±11.58typical miss · 1 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.8bn | 25.5bn | 18.7bn | 21.1bn – 22.6bn |
| 2028 | 23bn | 29.3bn | 17.6bn | 21.2bn – 24.9bn |
| 2030 | 24.2bn | 32.3bn | 17.1bn | 21.3bn – 27.1bn |
| 2035 | 27.1bn | 38.5bn | 17.1bn | 21.4bn – 32.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead27.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.1bntypical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.47(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.74 | 5.96 | -0.06 | 2.16 – 3.32 |
| 2028 | 3.34 | 8.92 | -1.5 | 2.25 – 4.43 |
| 2030 | 3.94 | 11.15 | -2.31 | 2.42 – 5.46 |
| 2035 | 5.44 | 12 | -3.4 | 2.87 – 8.01 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.13· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.26typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.3k | 9.8k | 7k | 8k – 8.6k |
| 2028 | 8.4k | 11.1k | 6.1k | 7.7k – 9.1k |
| 2030 | 8.5k | 12k | 5.6k | 7.4k – 9.6k |
| 2035 | 8.8k | 13.7k | 4.6k | 6.8k – 10.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.5k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.7ktypical miss · 1 realized · 25% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed83.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 85.91 | 103.72 | 65.36 | 81.8 – 90.02 |
| 2028 | 89.33 | 120.17 | 53.74 | 80.3 – 98.36 |
| 2030 | 92.75 | 132.57 | 46.8 | 79.2 – 106.29 |
| 2035 | 101.3 | 157.61 | 36.32 | 76.43 – 126.17 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead84.56· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.21typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.47 | 33.09 | 27.84 | 29.52 – 31.41 |
| 2028 | 32.61 | 37.15 | 28.06 | 30.19 – 35.02 |
| 2030 | 34.74 | 40.61 | 28.88 | 30.8 – 38.69 |
| 2035 | 40.09 | 48.38 | 31.79 | 31.77 – 48.4 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.31· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.3typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.22 | 5.92 | -1.75 | 1.36 – 3.08 |
| 2028 | 3.05 | 9.47 | -3.83 | 1.48 – 4.62 |
| 2030 | 3.88 | 12.17 | -5 | 1.73 – 6.03 |
| 2035 | 5.96 | 17.69 | -5 | 2.41 – 9.52 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.42typical miss · 1 realized · 177% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.08 | 31.82 | 21.11 | 24.84 – 27.32 |
| 2028 | 29.3 | 39.23 | 20.69 | 26.47 – 32.12 |
| 2030 | 32.51 | 45.34 | 21.4 | 28.08 – 36.95 |
| 2035 | 40.56 | 58.7 | 24.83 | 31.48 – 49.64 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.1· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.52typical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.6m | 2.7m | 2.5m | 2.5m – 2.7m |
| 2028 | 2.6m | 2.8m | 2.5m | 2.4m – 2.8m |
| 2030 | 2.7m | 2.8m | 2.6m | 2.4m – 3m |
| 2035 | 2.8m | 3m | 2.7m | 2.3m – 3.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.4m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±222.6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6 | 11.19 | -5.6 | 0.37 – 2.82 |
| 2028 | 3.83 | 15 | -8.63 | 1.57 – 6.09 |
| 2030 | 6.07 | 15 | -10 | 2.9 – 9.23 |
| 2035 | 11.65 | 15 | -10 | 5.99 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.09· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.38typical miss · 1 realized · 259% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed638.8m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 548.8m | 1.2bn | 0 | 439.4m – 658.3m |
| 2027 | 297.8m | 1.4bn | 0 | 109.1m – 486.4m |
| 2029 | 46.7m | 1.5bn | 0 | 0 – 275.5m |
| 2034 | 0 | 2.1bn | 0 | 0 – 318.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead466m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.25(2015)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 4.12 | 5.55 | 2.68 | 3.83 – 4.4 |
| 2018 | 3.96 | 6.44 | 1.48 | 3.39 – 4.53 |
| 2020 | 3.89 | 7.09 | 0.68 | 3.08 – 4.69 |
| 2025 | 3.83 | 8.36 | 0 | 2.52 – 5.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.35· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed638.8m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 548.8m | 1.2bn | 0 | 439.4m – 658.3m |
| 2027 | 297.8m | 1.4bn | 0 | 109.1m – 486.4m |
| 2029 | 46.7m | 1.5bn | 0 | 0 – 275.5m |
| 2034 | 0 | 2.1bn | 0 | 0 – 318.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead466m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.89 | 20.87 | 18.92 | 19.28 – 20.51 |
| 2028 | 19.37 | 20.54 | 18.19 | 17.93 – 20.8 |
| 2030 | 18.84 | 20.36 | 17.32 | 16.7 – 20.98 |
| 2035 | 17.53 | 19.68 | 15.38 | 13.89 – 21.17 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.23· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/GAB · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 21.27 | 2025 (21.4bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 16.3708 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.888 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17bn | 2025 (20.15) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -58195013886.745 + 3728883265.9966·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.679 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 66.31 | 2023 (3) |
| 2027 | 68.64 | 2024 (1.6) |
| 2028 | 81.26 | 2025 (-6) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 71.2951 + -1.6612·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.518 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.79 | 2023 (20.16) |
| 2027 | 4 | 2024 (20.09) |
| 2028 | 3.81 | 2025 (20.15) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 64.3355 + -3.0031·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/GAB?indicator= · API docs
