Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Gibraltar: forward projections across 1 macro indicator, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
No macro series leads another strongly enough in Gibraltar (over enough overlapping history) to nowcast it.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/GIB?indicator= · API docs
Latest observed40.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.9k | 41.8k | 38.1k | 38.7k – 41.1k |
| 2028 | 40.8k | 42.7k | 39k | 37.8k – 43.8k |
| 2030 | 41.7k | 43.6k | 39.8k | 36.9k – 46.4k |
| 2035 | 43.8k | 45.9k | 41.9k | 34.8k – 52.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead40.8k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1ktypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/GIB · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
