Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Gambia, The: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Gambia, The's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.779 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.9bn | 2023 (6.48) |
Latest observed-5.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.65 | -0.58 | -6.71 | -4.33 – -2.96 |
| 2028 | -2.74 | 2.57 | -8.05 | -3.96 – -1.53 |
| 2030 | -1.84 | 5.02 | -8.69 | -3.38 – -0.29 |
| 2035 | 0.42 | 10.12 | -9.27 | -1.72 – 2.56 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-5.99· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.25typical miss · 1 realized · 38% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.19 | 20.47 | 3.14 | 9.68 – 12.69 |
| 2028 | 8.1 | 24.17 | 0 | 5.41 – 10.78 |
| 2030 | 5.01 | 25.76 | 0 | 1.64 – 8.38 |
| 2035 | 0 | 29.35 | 0 | 0 – 4.35 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.03· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.15typical miss · 1 realized · 48% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.7bn | 2.9bn | 2.5bn | 2.6bn – 2.8bn |
| 2028 | 2.9bn | 3.2bn | 2.7bn | 2.7bn – 3.2bn |
| 2030 | 3.2bn | 3.6bn | 2.9bn | 2.8bn – 3.6bn |
| 2035 | 3.8bn | 4.3bn | 3.4bn | 3bn – 4.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±328mtypical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.12 | 9.95 | 2.81 | 5.39 – 6.86 |
| 2028 | 6.71 | 12 | 0.97 | 5.29 – 8.14 |
| 2030 | 7.3 | 12 | -0.12 | 5.29 – 9.31 |
| 2035 | 8.78 | 12 | -1.72 | 5.35 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.01· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.02typical miss · 1 realized · 20% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed919.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 939.5 | 1k | 884.76 | 910.37 – 968.62 |
| 2028 | 994.64 | 1.1k | 899.84 | 921.06 – 1.1k |
| 2030 | 1k | 1.2k | 927.39 | 930.59 – 1.2k |
| 2035 | 1.2k | 1.4k | 1k | 941.29 – 1.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±90.76typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed67.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 72.72 | 79.66 | 64.72 | 70.47 – 74.98 |
| 2028 | 70.77 | 82.78 | 56.91 | 65.53 – 76.02 |
| 2030 | 68.82 | 84.33 | 50.93 | 60.93 – 76.71 |
| 2035 | 63.94 | 85.87 | 38.64 | 50.34 – 77.55 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead66.31· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.32typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.44(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49.71 | 62.85 | 36.56 | 46.9 – 52.52 |
| 2028 | 50.24 | 73.01 | 27.47 | 44.34 – 56.14 |
| 2030 | 50.77 | 80.17 | 21.38 | 42.21 – 59.34 |
| 2035 | 52.11 | 93.68 | 10.53 | 37.41 – 66.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead50.42· skill-weighted across models
Track record±16.93typical miss · 1 realized · 34% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.56(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.74 | 15.4 | -2.54 | 4.71 – 8.77 |
| 2028 | 1.61 | 16.61 | -5 | -1.79 – 5.02 |
| 2030 | -3.51 | 15.85 | -5 | -5 – 1.06 |
| 2035 | -5 | 22.38 | -5 | -5 – 1.87 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.36· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.26typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.5 | 51.98 | 34.29 | 40.47 – 44.54 |
| 2028 | 48.23 | 64.65 | 34 | 43.57 – 52.89 |
| 2030 | 53.96 | 70 | 35.58 | 46.61 – 61.3 |
| 2035 | 68.27 | 70 | 42.29 | 53.06 – 70 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead41.96· skill-weighted across models
Track record±10.28typical miss · 1 realized · 25% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.8m | 2.9m | 2.7m | 2.7m – 2.9m |
| 2028 | 2.9m | 3m | 2.7m | 2.7m – 3.1m |
| 2030 | 2.9m | 3.1m | 2.8m | 2.6m – 3.3m |
| 2035 | 3.1m | 3.3m | 3m | 2.5m – 3.8m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±124.3ktypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.91 | 8.19 | -1.05 | 2.2 – 3.61 |
| 2028 | 3.16 | 12.31 | -3.7 | 1.87 – 4.46 |
| 2030 | 3.42 | 15 | -5.43 | 1.67 – 5.17 |
| 2035 | 4.06 | 15 | -8.46 | 1.32 – 6.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.95· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.34typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed628.8m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 643.3m | 842.1m | 444.5m | 602.6m – 684m |
| 2027 | 696.1m | 1bn | 351.8m | 610m – 782.2m |
| 2029 | 749m | 1.2bn | 304.4m | 621m – 876.9m |
| 2034 | 881.1m | 1.5bn | 252.4m | 643.9m – 1.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead671.7m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.79(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.88 | 8.58 | 1.18 | 4.24 – 5.52 |
| 2027 | 4.99 | 11.39 | 0 | 3.77 – 6.21 |
| 2029 | 5.04 | 13.31 | 0 | 3.37 – 6.71 |
| 2034 | 5.08 | 16.78 | 0 | 2.48 – 7.69 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.97· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed628.8m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 643.3m | 842.1m | 444.5m | 602.6m – 684m |
| 2027 | 696.1m | 1bn | 351.8m | 610m – 782.2m |
| 2029 | 749m | 1.2bn | 304.4m | 621m – 876.9m |
| 2034 | 881.1m | 1.5bn | 252.4m | 643.9m – 1.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead671.7m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.65 | 7.08 | 6.22 | 6.45 – 6.86 |
| 2028 | 6.92 | 7.66 | 6.17 | 6.41 – 7.43 |
| 2030 | 7.18 | 8.14 | 6.22 | 6.37 – 8 |
| 2035 | 7.84 | 9.2 | 6.48 | 6.21 – 9.47 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.56· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/GMB · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 1.9bn | 2024 (6.48) |
| 2028 | 1.9bn | 2025 (6.52) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 3312470982.9285 + -223162444.4704·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.692 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.15 | 2025 (2.6bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 11.7412 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.52 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.81 | 2025 (73.7) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -0.4928 + 0.1126·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/GMB?indicator= · API docs
