Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Equatorial Guinea: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 1997, 1999, 2001, 2006, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Equatorial Guinea's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.789 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 11bn | 2024 (36.4) |
Latest observed-1.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.53 | 6.76 | -9.83 | -3.25 – 0.19 |
| 2029 | -1.4 | 12.97 | -15.77 | -4.4 – 1.6 |
| 2031 | -1.26 | 17.29 | -19.81 | -5.15 – 2.63 |
| 2036 | -0.92 | 25.32 | -27.16 | -6.44 – 4.59 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.7· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45.05 | 63.09 | 29.41 | 41.75 – 48.35 |
| 2028 | 42.1 | 73.35 | 15.02 | 35.62 – 48.59 |
| 2030 | 39.16 | 79.5 | 4.19 | 30.26 – 48.05 |
| 2035 | 31.79 | 88.85 | 0 | 18.55 – 45.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead45.42· skill-weighted across models
Track record±14.58typical miss · 1 realized · 31% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 14bn | 16.7bn | 11.6bn | 13.4bn – 14.5bn |
| 2029 | 14.7bn | 19.4bn | 10.6bn | 13.4bn – 15.9bn |
| 2031 | 15.4bn | 21.4bn | 10.1bn | 13.4bn – 17.3bn |
| 2036 | 17.1bn | 25.7bn | 9.6bn | 13.3bn – 20.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-5.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -4.02 | 10.11 | -10 | -6.44 – -1.6 |
| 2029 | -6.75 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -2.34 |
| 2031 | -9.47 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -3.45 |
| 2036 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -0.95 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.27· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.4k | 10.3k | 6.7k | 8k – 8.7k |
| 2029 | 8.9k | 12.2k | 6k | 8.1k – 9.7k |
| 2031 | 9.5k | 13.8k | 5.8k | 8.2k – 10.7k |
| 2036 | 10.9k | 16.9k | 5.6k | 8.4k – 13.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.4k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 38.79 | 50.68 | 25.07 | 36.34 – 41.24 |
| 2029 | 38.17 | 58.76 | 14.41 | 33.17 – 43.17 |
| 2031 | 37.55 | 64.13 | 6.87 | 30.45 – 44.64 |
| 2036 | 35.99 | 73.58 | 0 | 24.45 – 47.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead38.95· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.71 | 33.95 | 17.47 | 24.04 – 27.38 |
| 2028 | 20.3 | 34.58 | 6.03 | 17.14 – 23.46 |
| 2030 | 14.89 | 33.33 | 0 | 10.88 – 18.91 |
| 2035 | 1.38 | 27.44 | 0 | 0 – 5.59 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.77· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.29typical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.92(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.37 | 7.96 | -1.55 | 2.3 – 4.44 |
| 2029 | 3.93 | 11.88 | -4.59 | 1.98 – 5.88 |
| 2031 | 4.49 | 14.76 | -5 | 1.86 – 7.13 |
| 2036 | 5.89 | 20.41 | -5 | 1.73 – 10.05 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.44· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.85 | 9.11 | 3.03 | 5.29 – 6.41 |
| 2028 | 4.51 | 10.16 | 0 | 3.49 – 5.54 |
| 2030 | 3.18 | 10.46 | 0 | 1.88 – 4.47 |
| 2035 | 0 | 10.3 | 0 | 0 – 1.63 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.94· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.69typical miss · 1 realized · 42% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.6m | 1.8m | 1.5m | 1.6m – 1.7m |
| 2029 | 1.4m | 1.7m | 1.1m | 1.3m – 1.5m |
| 2031 | 1.1m | 1.5m | 705.5k | 956.3k – 1.2m |
| 2036 | 376.4k | 944.9k | 0 | 271k – 481.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.7m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-7.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.57 | 5.72 | -10 | -9.36 – -5.79 |
| 2028 | -7.61 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -4.36 |
| 2030 | -7.64 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -3.31 |
| 2035 | -7.72 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -1.23 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-8.37· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.56typical miss · 1 realized · 85% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.3bn | 2.4bn | 260.4m | 1.1bn – 1.5bn |
| 2027 | 1.9bn | 3.7bn | 42.4m | 1.5bn – 2.3bn |
| 2029 | 2.4bn | 4.8bn | 67.1m | 1.9bn – 3bn |
| 2034 | 3.9bn | 7.2bn | 484.4m | 2.7bn – 5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.01(1996)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 0.14 | 1.58 | 0 | 0 – 0.38 |
| 1999 | 0.29 | 2.78 | 0 | 0 – 0.72 |
| 2001 | 0.37 | 3.58 | 0 | 0 – 0.94 |
| 2006 | 0.43 | 4.97 | 0 | 0 – 1.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.01· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.3bn | 2.4bn | 260.4m | 1.1bn – 1.5bn |
| 2027 | 1.9bn | 3.7bn | 42.4m | 1.5bn – 2.3bn |
| 2029 | 2.4bn | 4.8bn | 67.1m | 1.9bn – 3bn |
| 2034 | 3.9bn | 7.2bn | 484.4m | 2.7bn – 5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.25 | 8.71 | 7.78 | 7.99 – 8.5 |
| 2028 | 8.07 | 8.87 | 7.26 | 7.47 – 8.66 |
| 2030 | 7.89 | 8.93 | 6.85 | 6.99 – 8.78 |
| 2035 | 7.44 | 8.91 | 5.97 | 5.9 – 8.98 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.35· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/GNQ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 10.7bn | 2025 (40.6) |
| 2029 | 10.8bn | 2026 (39.1) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 13687628590.5929 + -72945771.8965·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.726 over 20 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.72 | 2025 (12.8bn) |
| 2028 | -2.15 | 2026 (13.7bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 19.7714 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.647 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 33.06 | 2026 (13.7bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 127.1683 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.635 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.77 | 2023 (39.1) |
| 2027 | 7.78 | 2024 (36.4) |
| 2028 | 7.76 | 2025 (40.6) |
| 2029 | 7.77 | 2026 (39.1) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 7.9488 + -0.0046·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.575 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.42 | 2026 (39.1) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -1.6124 + 0.1288·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.507 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -8.67 | 2024 (8.29) |
| 2028 | -10.2 | 2025 (8.34) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 280.2235 + -34.836·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/GNQ?indicator= · API docs
