Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Greece: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Greece's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.862 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 146.92 | 2025 (2.48) |
Latest observed-6.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.21 | -0.61 | -11.81 | -7.46 – -4.97 |
| 2028 | -7.24 | 2.46 | -16.94 | -9.57 – -4.92 |
| 2030 | -8.27 | 4.25 | -20.79 | -11.49 – -5.05 |
| 2035 | -10.84 | 6.87 | -28.55 | -16.19 – -5.49 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-6.83· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.39typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.23 | 53.12 | 29.06 | 37.75 – 42.72 |
| 2028 | 41.77 | 64.1 | 22.42 | 36.58 – 46.97 |
| 2030 | 43.31 | 72.14 | 18.33 | 35.73 – 50.9 |
| 2035 | 47.17 | 87.93 | 11.84 | 33.8 – 60.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead39.57· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.02typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed280.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 293.7bn | 327.1bn | 264.8bn | 284.6bn – 302.8bn |
| 2028 | 326.2bn | 383.9bn | 276.1bn | 302bn – 350.3bn |
| 2030 | 358.6bn | 433.1bn | 294bn | 317.9bn – 399.3bn |
| 2035 | 439.7bn | 545.1bn | 348.4bn | 348.5bn – 530.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead313.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±10.9bntypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.4 | 12 | -10 | -0.41 – 5.22 |
| 2028 | 3.09 | 12 | -10 | -1.87 – 8.04 |
| 2030 | 3.77 | 12 | -10 | -2.74 – 10.28 |
| 2035 | 5.48 | 12 | -10 | -4.18 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.05· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.6typical miss · 1 realized · 34% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.2k | 31.4k | 25.5k | 27.3k – 29.1k |
| 2028 | 31.4k | 36.9k | 26.6k | 29.1k – 33.7k |
| 2030 | 34.6k | 41.7k | 28.4k | 30.7k – 38.5k |
| 2035 | 42.5k | 52.6k | 33.8k | 33.7k – 51.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead30.8k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.22(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.86 | 6.85 | 0.66 | 3.06 – 4.66 |
| 2029 | 3.44 | 8.62 | 0 | 2 – 4.88 |
| 2031 | 3.23 | 9.92 | 0 | 1.32 – 5.13 |
| 2036 | 3.06 | 12.52 | 0 | 0.24 – 5.88 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.35· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed136(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 142.54 | 165.86 | 115.63 | 136.67 – 148.41 |
| 2028 | 134.41 | 174.81 | 87.8 | 121.74 – 147.08 |
| 2030 | 126.28 | 178.44 | 66.11 | 108.16 – 144.41 |
| 2035 | 105.97 | 179.72 | 20.87 | 77.67 – 134.27 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead132.79· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.54typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45.15 | 58.53 | 31.76 | 42.38 – 47.92 |
| 2028 | 47.47 | 70.65 | 24.28 | 41.64 – 53.29 |
| 2030 | 49.79 | 79.71 | 19.86 | 41.22 – 58.35 |
| 2035 | 55.58 | 97.9 | 13.26 | 40.21 – 70.95 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead44.15· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.86typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.48(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.54 | 12.19 | -5 | 0.36 – 4.72 |
| 2028 | 2.17 | 18.89 | -5 | -1.64 – 5.98 |
| 2030 | 1.81 | 23.39 | -5 | -3.12 – 6.73 |
| 2035 | 0.89 | 31.42 | -5 | -5 – 7.82 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.39· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.66typical miss · 1 realized · 40% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.14 | 10.48 | -2.66 | 2.66 – 5.61 |
| 2029 | 3.21 | 14.2 | -5 | 0.62 – 5.8 |
| 2031 | 2.88 | 17.07 | -5 | -0.5 – 6.25 |
| 2036 | 2.7 | 22.77 | -5 | -2.18 – 7.59 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.68· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.31 | 18.93 | 15.9 | 16.77 – 17.84 |
| 2028 | 18.53 | 21.35 | 16.09 | 17.16 – 19.9 |
| 2030 | 19.75 | 23.39 | 16.6 | 17.51 – 22 |
| 2035 | 22.81 | 27.96 | 18.35 | 18.08 – 27.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.43· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.28typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.4m | 10.9m | 10m | 10.1m – 10.7m |
| 2028 | 10.4m | 10.9m | 10m | 9.7m – 11.2m |
| 2030 | 10.4m | 10.9m | 10m | 9.3m – 11.6m |
| 2035 | 10.5m | 11m | 10m | 8.3m – 12.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.3m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±69.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.69 | 15 | -10 | -1.59 – 2.97 |
| 2028 | 0.9 | 15 | -10 | -3.07 – 4.87 |
| 2030 | 1.11 | 15 | -10 | -4.04 – 6.26 |
| 2035 | 1.63 | 15 | -10 | -5.79 – 9.06 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.98· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.27typical miss · 1 realized · 358% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.5bn | 11.8bn | 5.2bn | 7.8bn – 9.1bn |
| 2028 | 9.8bn | 15.5bn | 4.1bn | 8.4bn – 11.1bn |
| 2030 | 11.1bn | 18.5bn | 3.7bn | 9.1bn – 13.1bn |
| 2035 | 14.4bn | 24.9bn | 4bn | 10.5bn – 18.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.82 | 2.58 | 1.07 | 1.68 – 1.97 |
| 2028 | 1.57 | 2.88 | 0.26 | 1.29 – 1.85 |
| 2030 | 1.44 | 3.14 | 0 | 1.07 – 1.82 |
| 2035 | 1.34 | 3.74 | 0 | 0.76 – 1.93 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.16· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.77typical miss · 1 realized · 38% MAPE
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.4bn | 32.5bn | 20.2bn | 25bn – 27.7bn |
| 2028 | 32.3bn | 43bn | 21.7bn | 29.2bn – 35.5bn |
| 2030 | 38.3bn | 52bn | 24.6bn | 33.1bn – 43.5bn |
| 2035 | 53.2bn | 72.6bn | 33.7bn | 41.7bn – 64.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.05 | 7.86 | 6.24 | 6.81 – 7.29 |
| 2028 | 4.07 | 5.47 | 2.67 | 3.66 – 4.48 |
| 2030 | 1.1 | 2.91 | 0 | 0.73 – 1.46 |
| 2035 | 0 | 2.56 | 0 | 0 – 0.55 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.04· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.95typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/GRC · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 160.7289 + -5.5628·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.836 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.56 | 2025 (146.6) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 21.3901 + -0.1216·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.753 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.89 | 2025 (146.6) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 2.6752 + 0.0833·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.687 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 208.8bn | 2025 (146.6) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 48384104355.7786 + 1094519449.4384·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.566 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.74 | 2025 (280.6bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -1.2539 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.562 over 63 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.74 | 2023 (242.9bn) |
| 2027 | -1.1 | 2024 (256.2bn) |
| 2028 | -1.76 | 2025 (280.6bn) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 5.8375 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/GRC?indicator= · API docs
